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Putin’s Move
Hard to say, of course, but Putin seems to be far on his back foot. The “referendum,” partial mobilization, and lack of effective counter-counter-attack so far are the things that make me think so. I do not believe that the referendum or the mobilization were in the works as anything but potential future things before the Ukrainian counterattack.
The laughable referendum sounds like an attempt to create the appearance of a fact on the ground, and will of course be used the same way China waves about its maps with a nine-dashed line encompassing the Vietnam Sea. The mobilization is tricky because a full mobilization would simply advertise that suddenly Russia must go to war on a national footing just to accomplish knocking over a few counties of Ukraine. The strategic damage to Russia of merely declaring a full mobilization seems considerable. So “partial mobilization” it is.
Ukraine seems to have gained a bunch of important ground, which is after all the point, but the meat in this sandwich is the effectiveness of Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, which looks poor. I know Russia has a two-commander problem which is stupidly cross-threaded (the senior commander is in the south, but the northern one gets priority *when Russia’s border is in question*, which is just a recipe for command confusion. From the outside, and squinting through a lens of near apathy, I would say that this is the chief problem for Russia. There is of course the Napoleonic maxim about morale and materiel, a metric that also greatly favors the Ukes. And the Russians have had no answer so far for the advance made by Ukraine. Not a good look for a supposed superpower.
I recall some ops research which was breathtaking in its simplicity of structure yet complexity of result. I have tried to find it off and on for about twenty years, but it went something like this:
Simulate two opposing forces which attrite each other (slightly probabilistically, based on the ratio of force remaining) on two fronts — so each force has two units deployed, and each of those units fights its counterpart. Each side has a single reserve, and may deploy that reserve to either front (one controllable variable) and at any time (the other controllable variable). Allow a computer to run the simulation, and to select both decision points; repeat many thousands of times (Monte Carlo) to see how the results shake out. The high number of repetitions accounts for the “dice” introduced via “probabilistically.” The results were chaotic across most of the domain, with only small islands of generally good combinations of decision points, the opposite of what you would expect.
Lesson learned — predictions are for suckers, and the more anecdata recruited to the prediction, the less likely it is based on anything at all. Still, decisions must be made, and advice must be given. The most valuable part of any such briefing or set of orders could be collected under the heading “unknowns.”
The (naval) Battle of Salamis featured a superior force squeezed into an awkward area, thereby able to bring only a small part of its force to bear at any time. They should have withdrawn — instead they were defeated, and the remnants sailed for home at daybreak. There is a corollary here that all of the aid from the West must still be deployed by the hands of Ukrainians. This is a choke point on a different sort of map, a sort of phase space salient.
I remember back when the Russians were going to carve up Ukraine as easily as peeing a hole in the snow (learned a Finnish adverb today). The Russians should have been able to wipe out the archers before the stockpile of arrows mattered. Yet the Russian effort is hampered internally as well as externally, and good ol’ Russian incompetence and corruption are having their way.
After the Ukrainian advance in the east, it seems that the following can happen to/by them; endless victory all the way to Vladivostok, overextension, stasis with or without consolidation, withdrawal or pushback, or destruction by Russian counterattack. Personally, I hope that on that front, they are able to consolidate while keeping Ivan on the hoof. Depends how much force they have available. Presumably Putin’s logistics get much better across the border, where (presumably) you can simply order up more fuel and trucks will bring it. It would be very easy for Ukraine to overextend and get rolled up.
I very much *like* the idea that Putin just failed with his best, and now will try with the rest. I hope it’s true, and this goofy referendum seems to be a Hail Mary attempt to legitimize the invasion — let us hope that nobody here falls for it. And mobilization? I saw a reference to a thing: “Go ahead. Draft me. Put a gun in my hand. See what happens.”
Your move, Putin.
Published in General
The Chinese are coming to the realization that if there is a Taiwanese peasant in that tree line humping a Javelin, today will be a bad day.
“will be”?
– I don’t think I’m tracking.
EDIT: Damn Skippy!
Somehow you overlook that the people fighting one side of war have been invaded, slaughtered and terrorized. I doubt they give a [CoC] about anyone’s screed about greenies, trannies and bugs. They’re the ones that will now have to be satisfied, or conquered, for there to be a peace.
People fighting on both sides of the conflict have been slaughtered and terorrised. That seems relevant.
Yes, that’s true.
I suspect they might be giving some longing glances at everything east of the Urals.
Heh. In my notes for a book idea from the late 1990s, I note that Russia has excess women and arable land, whereas China has excess men and is crowded. Forces of nature like this move borders either on or off maps.
Courtesy Vivid Maps:
Speaking of off-topic, what’s up with the Russian business leaders dying left and right? Falling out windows. Falling off boats. Suicide. Another suicide… Surely not all these people had dirt on the Clintons. Something is going on.
You seem to think Ukraine is homogeneous. It isn’t. And both sides slaughter. Ukraine has secret police who were KGB trained. They know about terror and torture.
Tu quoque. The Russians are in Ukraine to “save the Ukrainians from Nazis.” It behooves the Russians to not behave like Nazis when they arrive
The disturbing thing is that Russia may (may) have held back so far.
It’s significant that the Russians didn’t go after civilian infrastructure until very recently when they knocked out power generation in Eastern Ukraine.
Civilian infrastructure is generally the first thing shock and awe armies go for.
They intend to take these places over, to literally own them, and Heaven knows the Russkies can barely manage their own reactors and such. They’ve been trying to avoid sticker shock.
So we’re told.
The Russians have been hitting hospitals, shopping malls, and schools since April. Claiming the thugs can be more thuggish is not a defense.
Sorry. I messed that up.
So why didn’t they hit power generation stations in a systematic manner until recently?
No, it’s not. But it’s worth considering that they have that capacity.
I’d argue they’re not behaving like NSDAP. They’re acting like Soviets.
They used some of the good missiles. They don’t have many of those, and they can’t replace the ones they use. They have to fire cruise missiles from well out of range of the Ukrainians’ SAMs.
Is turnabout fair play? Can the Ukes start hitting Russian power stations?
Apparently they can, see Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Party foul. Ukraine is Ukraine. That’s kind of the point.
So it’s okay for Ukrainians to hit Ukrainian (but currently held by someone else) power plants? Seems extreme, but okay.
Russia can easily end the war and regain whatever comfort they desire by un-assing the Ukrainian lands. Zero sympathy. Until then, Ukraine is fighting for its freedom, regardless of any other criticism. Every bit of this is on Putin’s head.
They are fighting for their existence. Curious how you are always rooting against people who are doing that.
It’s a war, not a football game. There are a lot of losers on both sides, which is awful. It’s well to remember that.
I root for the Ukrainians because they are fighting invasion. It is pretty simple, even if both sides are corrupt.
Are the Ukrainians fighting for freedom in Crimea or Luhansk or Donetsk? Or the other Russophone areas? It’s really not so clear cut.
I pointed out that the Ukrainians are fighting for their existence. That seems to offend you somehow. Self-defense is not an option?
China is not stupid. their trade with the West is much greater ( close to 20 times) then their trade with RuZZia. They know where their bread is buttered.
Yes it is. The Russian simps in those areas are dining above the bones of millions of starved Ukrainians, whom they replaced. They are Stalin’s transplants. There’s a lot of Russia for them to return to.
Zafar, you may make me a Uke nationalist yet.
Russia has stopped the selling of airline and railroad tickets to men of military age (18-65).
A video entitled “How to Break an Arm” is going viral in Russia.