Is Ukraine Winning the War Against Russia?

 

I have been reading recent posts on social media claiming that Ukraine is recapturing dozens of square miles of territory from Russia, Russian troops are taking heavy casualties, and many Russian troops are cut off from supply lines.

It seems that the western nations are pouring weapons into the Ukraine military, which has outperformed expectations in using these weapons to their advantage. It’s starting to look like Russia’s military is not the second best military in the world, but rather the second best military in Ukraine.

One doesn’t want to read too much into these social media reports of Ukraine’s success. Who knows what is really going on over there? But former General of the US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, says that Ukraine will recapture Crimea in a year. He seems to have backed off his earlier prediction that Ukraine would retake all of the territory it lost after February 22, 2022, by the end of summer (which would be right about now, it would seem).

Still, I bet that if Putin had known how badly this invasion would go and how unified the liberal-democratic world would be in supporting Ukraine, he would not have ordered the invasion of Ukraine.  This shows how wars can start based on miscalculation, the underestimating of the opposition. In any case, we will have to watch over the next month or so to see if Ukraine is able to keep this counter-attack going.

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  1. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Who thinks that Anthony Blinken knows what he’s doing? There was just some reporting this week on how corrupt he is. Some lobbyist thing. 

    Who do you like in all of that state department stuff? The people I follow hate all of them. 

    They are very hateable.

    Blinken has been involved in some really shady stuff over the years.

    What gets me is that everyone here (except a handful) understands that the Biden Administration is a black hole of suck.

    And yet somehow they also think the Biden Administration is doing a great job in Ukraine.

    These things are not reconcilable.

    • #61
  2. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    I give three dollars a month to @redsteeze and I don’t even listen to this podcast. He absolutely crucifies the media and the Democrats on Twitter. He’s not hard to understand like the other guys because they get in the weeds so much. It’s money well spent.

    • #62
  3. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    OH LOOK THE STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA HAS THE GOOD NEWS!

     

     

     

    I trust Lee Smith and Darren Beattie and they don’t trust any of that stuff that I’ve been talking about.

    There is something to be said for not trusting anything you hear or read.

    Unless it’s Ukraine Propaganda, right?

    • #63
  4. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Who thinks that Anthony Blinken knows what he’s doing? There was just some reporting this week on how corrupt he is. Some lobbyist thing.

    Who do you like in all of that state department stuff? The people I follow hate all of them.

    They are very hateable.

    Blinken has been involved in some really shady stuff over the years.

    What gets me is that everyone here (except a handful) understands that the Biden Administration is a black hole of suck.

    And yet somehow they also think the Biden Administration is doing a great job in Ukraine.

    These things are not reconcilable.

    That’s my view. I hope it turns out better than that, but that is my view.

    • #64
  5. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

     

     

     

    https://rumble.com/search/video?q=Darren%20Beattie

     

     

     

     

    • #65
  6. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    It looks like Russian soldiers are surrendering in large numbers in Izyum right now.

    Not to worry. The borscht-slurpers are rushing in reinforcements. The reinforcements that they have consist of conscripts greener than grass.

    • #66
  7. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Ukraine has the most corruption per GDP output of any country on the planet. It has something to do with being very poor and overlaying the natural gas business over it. Plus the crappy government. I read an article about it. I think they were distinguishing it from something like Nigeria or places where average citizens are more involved and affected.

    Rufus, the premier investigative body of this country sat on the contents of a laptop that revealed multiple felonies for over a year, and then 51 former national security types signed a letter swearing on their mothers’ virginities that said contents had all the hallmarks of Russian disinformation. Ukraine can’t play in our league.

    • #67
  8. Doug Watt Member
    Doug Watt
    @DougWatt

    At the present time I think we will see some trench warfare. Russia is and will have difficulty making a big push into Ukraine. Ukraine will find it impossible to reclaim every kilometer that was lost.

    In my opinion Putin is in a precarious position. He has two sets of critics in Russia. The Russians against the war, and those who believe he isn’t doing enough to take Ukraine.

    Lukashenko in Belarus is not going to be much help to Russia. His top military officers are divided on providing more assistance to Russia. The lower ranks are just as divided, and like some of their superior officers have no desire to fight in Ukraine. This could change but there are dissident Belarusians training with Polish troops, so Lukashenko has to worry about meeting the same fate that befell Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania.

    • #68
  9. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Watched the update on Military Summary – and however they [he] spin[s] it, this seems like a set back for Russia.

    One possible response: Russia declares war (which it hasn’t done yet) and starts a general conscription.

    MS also reported (previously) that a lot of military vehicles were being stored in Kharkiv’s underground system – so they were right there, ready for use, which makes me think this was planned well in advance.

    • #69
  10. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Watched the update on Military Summary – and however they [he] spin[s] it, this seems like a set back for Russia.

    One possible response: Russia declares war (which it hasn’t done yet) and starts a general conscription.

    MS also reported (previously) that a lot of military vehicles were being stored in Kharkiv’s underground system – so they were right there, ready for use, which makes me think this was planned well in advance.

    Whose vehicles?

    • #70
  11. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Percival (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Watched the update on Military Summary – and however they [he] spin[s] it, this seems like a set back for Russia.

    One possible response: Russia declares war (which it hasn’t done yet) and starts a general conscription.

    MS also reported (previously) that a lot of military vehicles were being stored in Kharkiv’s underground system – so they were right there, ready for use, which makes me think this was planned well in advance.

    Whose vehicles?

    According to him controlled by Ukraine.

    • #71
  12. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Ukraine has the most corruption per GDP output of any country on the planet. It has something to do with being very poor and overlaying the natural gas business over it. Plus the crappy government. I read an article about it. I think they were distinguishing it from something like Nigeria or places where average citizens are more involved and affected.

    When my brother was posted to Cameroon, he told me the country had been named the second-most corrupt in the world. When informed of this, a spokesman for the government said that they would have been named most corrupt, but the country that beat them bribed the people who set the criteria.

    LOL that is good. The whole planet is just crap. It really is.

    This was a long time ago. A guy from Puerto Rico called in to the Chris Plante show. He was just merciless on Latino culture AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL. It was one of the longest calls I have ever heard. He traced it back to Spain. Those countries are all based on extraction and slavery, not how we started out which was basically production and protestant religion. I feel so sorry for those people in Puerto Rico. Nothing but corruption, hurricanes, and earthquakes. It’s just like Africa: everybody that is smart and honest gets the hell out.

    Costa Rica, Panama, and the Cayman Islands are probably OK. The rest of it is totally incorrigible.

    I haven’t been paying close attention to Costa Rica lately, but it seems to be globalizing.  But Costa Ricans said that they have a sense of individual freedom and a work ethic because the land was so harsh and the natives so indomitable that they couldn’t be enslaved, such that even early Spanish governors had to physically work their own farms and plantations.

    • #72
  13. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Who thinks that Anthony Blinken knows what he’s doing? There was just some reporting this week on how corrupt he is. Some lobbyist thing.

    Who do you like in all of that state department stuff? The people I follow hate all of them.

    They are very hateable.

    Blinken has been involved in some really shady stuff over the years.

    What gets me is that everyone here (except a handful) understands that the Biden Administration is a black hole of suck.

    And yet somehow they also think the Biden Administration is doing a great job in Ukraine.

    These things are not reconcilable.

    Well, unless it’s a miracle.  But I don’t think so.

    • #73
  14. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Flicker (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Ukraine has the most corruption per GDP output of any country on the planet. It has something to do with being very poor and overlaying the natural gas business over it. Plus the crappy government. I read an article about it. I think they were distinguishing it from something like Nigeria or places where average citizens are more involved and affected.

    When my brother was posted to Cameroon, he told me the country had been named the second-most corrupt in the world. When informed of this, a spokesman for the government said that they would have been named most corrupt, but the country that beat them bribed the people who set the criteria.

    LOL that is good. The whole planet is just crap. It really is.

    This was a long time ago. A guy from Puerto Rico called in to the Chris Plante show. He was just merciless on Latino culture AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL. It was one of the longest calls I have ever heard. He traced it back to Spain. Those countries are all based on extraction and slavery, not how we started out which was basically production and protestant religion. I feel so sorry for those people in Puerto Rico. Nothing but corruption, hurricanes, and earthquakes. It’s just like Africa: everybody that is smart and honest gets the hell out.

    Costa Rica, Panama, and the Cayman Islands are probably OK. The rest of it is totally incorrigible.

    I haven’t been paying close attention to Costa Rica lately, but it seems to be globalizing. But Costa Ricans said that they have a sense of individual freedom and a work ethic because the land was so harsh and the natives so indomitable that they couldn’t be enslaved, such that even early Spanish governors had to physically work their own farms and plantations.

    The Wikipedia entry about the history is pretty congruent with a better outcome. They and Panama just weren’t like the other countries very much. 

    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    • #74
  15. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    What gets me is that everyone here (except a handful) understands that the Biden Administration is a black hole of suck.

    And yet somehow they also think the Biden Administration is doing a great job in Ukraine.

    These things are not reconcilable.

    It’s the “politics stop at the border” instinct, which is not a bad thing in itself.

    • #75
  16. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    Apparently you have a free trade agreement with all of them. ??

    • #76
  17. DrewInWisconsin, Oik Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Zafar (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    What gets me is that everyone here (except a handful) understands that the Biden Administration is a black hole of suck.

    And yet somehow they also think the Biden Administration is doing a great job in Ukraine.

    These things are not reconcilable.

    It’s the “politics stop at the border” instinct, which is not a bad thing in itself.

    Democrats never practice that.

    • #77
  18. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    Apparently you have a free trade agreement with all of them. ??

    Apparently, I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    • #78
  19. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    Apparently you have a free trade agreement with all of them. ??

    Apparently, I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    There’s the idea that countries can trade their way out of poverty, and that a free trade agreement with a big, rich economy facilitates that.  Apparently [!] that’s not sufficient in and of itself, and even in Mexico it’s had mixed results.

    (As for Greece and Spain in the EU…well.)

    I think I’m sort of agreeing with you.

    • #79
  20. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Zafar (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik (View Comment):

    What gets me is that everyone here (except a handful) understands that the Biden Administration is a black hole of suck.

    And yet somehow they also think the Biden Administration is doing a great job in Ukraine.

    These things are not reconcilable.

    It’s the “politics stop at the border” instinct, which is not a bad thing in itself.

    I don’t think that the Biden Administration is doing a great job in Ukraine.  But that doesn’t exclude the possibility that Putin is doing very badly in Ukraine.  

    • #80
  21. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    Apparently you have a free trade agreement with all of them. ??

    Apparently, I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    There’s the idea that countries can trade their way out of poverty, and that a free trade agreement with a big, rich economy facilitates that. Apparently [!] that’s not sufficient in and of itself, and even in Mexico it’s had mixed results.

    (As for Greece and Spain in the EU…well.)

    I think I’m sort of agreeing with you.

    There is too much corruption and organized crime. 

    • #81
  22. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    Apparently you have a free trade agreement with all of them. ??

    Apparently, I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    There’s the idea that countries can trade their way out of poverty, and that a free trade agreement with a big, rich economy facilitates that. Apparently [!] that’s not sufficient in and of itself, and even in Mexico it’s had mixed results.

    (As for Greece and Spain in the EU…well.)

    I think I’m sort of agreeing with you.

    A tiny country like Latvia is going to have a tough time producing all of the things Latvians need with just the resources available within the country.  So, buying stuff from other countries makes a lot of sense.  If Latvia doesn’t have vast petroleum reverses, buying petroleum from other countries makes sense.  

    Specific “free trade” agreements might be good or bad depending on the specifics of the agreement.  But being open to purchasing goods and services available outside your own country’s borders is smart.  

    • #82
  23. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    Apparently you have a free trade agreement with all of them. ??

    Apparently, I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    There’s the idea that countries can trade their way out of poverty, and that a free trade agreement with a big, rich economy facilitates that. Apparently [!] that’s not sufficient in and of itself, and even in Mexico it’s had mixed results.

    (As for Greece and Spain in the EU…well.)

    I think I’m sort of agreeing with you.

    A tiny country like Latvia is going to have a tough time producing all of the things Latvians need with just the resources available within the country. So, buying stuff from other countries makes a lot of sense. If Latvia doesn’t have vast petroleum reverses, buying petroleum from other countries makes sense.

    Specific “free trade” agreements might be good or bad depending on the specifics of the agreement. But being open to purchasing goods and services available outside your own country’s borders is smart.

    Trade is always good as long as your system is set up for lower prices from trade. Politically it’s a lot harder than that. 

    The issue in central America is corruption and organized crime. China doesn’t have this problem but I don’t think most people would want to live there.

    • #83
  24. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    A tiny country like Latvia is going to have a tough time producing all of the things Latvians need with just the resources available within the country.  So, buying stuff from other countries makes a lot of sense.  If Latvia doesn’t have vast petroleum reverses, buying petroleum from other countries makes sense.  

    Specific “free trade” agreements might be good or bad depending on the specifics of the agreement.  But being open to purchasing goods and services available outside your own country’s borders is smart.  

    Sure, but if the country is in chaos, or there’s been extreme regulatory capture by elites, or the people are not educated enough to be productive in today’s economy, or…..then the country does not really benefit from a free trade agreement – or at least a critical mass of the country’s people don’t.

    In the case of the EU where there’s freedom of movement and an ageing population, the poorer countries lose their more productive citizens to the better off countries – so it’s another issue to consider.  Russians With Attitude (terrible attitude, hilarious accents) raised this issue regarding Ukraine.  According to them, even if the war ended tomorrow Ukraine will have a hard time rebounding demographically because so many of them have gone to the EU – and the ones of working and baby making age, who can make a living there, are unlikely to come back.

    • #84
  25. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    It would absolutely suck to be poor and live in the Northern triangle.

    Apparently you have a free trade agreement with all of them. ??

    Apparently, I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    There’s the idea that countries can trade their way out of poverty, and that a free trade agreement with a big, rich economy facilitates that. Apparently [!] that’s not sufficient in and of itself, and even in Mexico it’s had mixed results.

    (As for Greece and Spain in the EU…well.)

    I think I’m sort of agreeing with you.

    A tiny country like Latvia is going to have a tough time producing all of the things Latvians need with just the resources available within the country. So, buying stuff from other countries makes a lot of sense. If Latvia doesn’t have vast petroleum reverses, buying petroleum from other countries makes sense.

    Specific “free trade” agreements might be good or bad depending on the specifics of the agreement. But being open to purchasing goods and services available outside your own country’s borders is smart.

    Trade is always good as long as your system is set up for lower prices from trade. Politically it’s a lot harder than that.

    The issue in central America is corruption and organized crime. China doesn’t have this problem but I don’t think most people would want to live there.

    Trade restrictions can also be corrupt.  Sugar farmers can provide lots of money to politicians who protect domestic sugar producers from foreign competition, allowing the domestic sugar producers to hike up the prices of sugar to consumers without any fear that consumers will be able to purchase from anyone else.  

    So, government restrictions on trade aren’t necessarily the result of “clean” government.  Often they are the result of corruption.

    • #85
  26. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Zafar (View Comment):

    HeavyWater (View Comment):

    A tiny country like Latvia is going to have a tough time producing all of the things Latvians need with just the resources available within the country. So, buying stuff from other countries makes a lot of sense. If Latvia doesn’t have vast petroleum reverses, buying petroleum from other countries makes sense.

    Specific “free trade” agreements might be good or bad depending on the specifics of the agreement. But being open to purchasing goods and services available outside your own country’s borders is smart.

    Sure, but if the country is in chaos, or there’s been extreme regulatory capture by elites, or the people are not educated enough to be productive in today’s economy, or…..then the country does not really benefit from a free trade agreement – or at least a critical mass of the country’s people don’t.

    In the case of the EU where there’s freedom of movement and an ageing population, the poorer countries lose their more productive citizens to the better off countries – so it’s another issue to consider. Russians With Attitude (terrible attitude, hilarious accents) raised this issue regarding Ukraine. According to them, even if the war ended tomorrow Ukraine will have a hard time rebounding demographically because so many of them have gone to the EU – and the ones of working and baby making age, who can make a living there, are unlikely to come back.

    Trade agreements might be good or bad depending on the specifics.  But if your local businessman is jacking up the price on the goods you buy, it’s smart to consider buying the goods you need from foreign businessmen if those businessmen offer higher quality and/or lower priced goods.  

    If government prevents you from purchasing goods from foreign businesses, your government might be ripping you off.

    • #86
  27. Stina Inactive
    Stina
    @CM

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    We could have paid the Israelis to give Putin a porcupine strategy nightmare all the way from the Arctic to the Mediterranean. Hell, even I thought of it and I didn’t even know it had a name.

    You would have to figure out how to deal with Ukraine’s corruption, but that is mostly their problem after you start helping them.

    I’ve been listening to a lot of complicated crap about the EU and the EMU. There is an argument that they are absolutely petrified of the rest of the world and they will do anything to try to turn themselves in to a version of the USA so they can compete. If I were doing that, I would turn on the clean coal and the nukes.

    Personally, I just see a bunch of globalist idiots over there.

    Israel moving against Russia is kinda risky isn’t it? Isn’t Russia pretty friendly with Israel? And with a leftist on the American throne, America giving aid and comfort to Israel’s enemies is not something to be ruled out.

    I thought that was why Israel had been so hesitant to take sides on this. They need Russia as back up in case Biden pulls an Obama.

    • #87
  28. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    Trade is always good as long as your system is set up for lower prices from trade. Politically it’s a lot harder than that.

    I would tend to agree, but there are constraints.  In Mexico, for eg, small farmers couldn’t compete with corn imported from the US so they went out of business.  In theory they should have moved to work in factories but there weren’t enough factories, or they weren’t equipped to work in the factories there were, so they….went North.  Which is arguably an unforseen consequence of NAFTA, and probably isn’t that great for the US or for Mexico.

    Edited to add: imo the reason that Erdogan has (and perhaps even those before him have) been able to keep public dissent manageable despite economic catastrophe is that Turkey’s customs union with the EU is mostly for industrial products – it excludes food (except for processed stuff), which keeps farmers working and food affordable in Turkey.

    • #88
  29. HeavyWater Inactive
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    Trade is always good as long as your system is set up for lower prices from trade. Politically it’s a lot harder than that.

    I would tend to agree, but there are constraints. In Mexico, for eg, small farmers couldn’t compete with corn imported from the US so they went out of business. In theory they should have moved to work in factories but there weren’t enough factories, or they weren’t equipped to work in the factories there were, so they….went North. Which is arguably an unforseen consequence of NAFTA, and probably isn’t that great for the US or for Mexico.

    Let’s say that all of your crops have failed in your country due to terrible weather.  Would you like it if your government placed trade restrictions such that you were unable to purchase food from foreign countries, allowing you to starve to death?  I would guess that you would prefer, in that case, that your government allow trade between your country and other countries so that you could purchase the food you need to stay alive.  

    Similarly, if your local auto industry is producing lousy cars that always break down and you want to purchase a car from another country that has a reputation of being comfortable and easy to maintain, you might get mad if your government placed restrictions so that you can’t purchase a car from a foreign country.

    So, on balance it much better to live in a country where your government doesn’t prevent you from spending your money the way you want to spend it, even if this means you occasionally purchase foreign goods.  

    • #89
  30. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    HeavyWater (View Comment):
    So, on balance it much better to live in a country where your government doesn’t prevent you from spending your money the way you want to spend it, even if this means you occasionally purchase foreign goods.  

    So why did illegal migration from Mexico to the US increase after NAFTA? It wasn’t, on balance, better for those Mexicans who became migrants – or even, judging by wages, that great for the Mexicans who remained in less skilled jobs.

    • #90
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