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Long-Term Lessons from the Ukraine War
A few very important lessons have been learned from the war so far:
1: Big dumb platforms are dead. Anti-tank weapons have shredded the most advanced tanks Russia had, and there is little evidence that Merkavas, Challengers, or Abrams would fare much better.
For tanks, APCs, or other large vehicles to survive, they need to get much smarter. They need electronic systems to foil the countless tank-killers that float in the air or mount on a shoulder. Even so, they would not survive the overhead drone dropping a small bomb directly on top. I am skeptical that the future battlefield will have tanks — they are analogous to suits of armor meeting firearms.
2: Manned fighters and bombers are done. There is almost nothing left in their purview that cannot be done as well by a drone, missile, or artillery shell. All the governments that spend and spend to keep the guy in the cockpit will have to abandon those programs.
The best way to defeat drones or missiles, on the other hand, is to blind or confuse them. This can be done directly or by intercepting/hacking their signals. Warfare is going to become ever more electronic.
3: Artillery, with drone spotters, work extremely well. There are countless videos of artillery shells achieving incredible hit rates on vehicles hiding in forests or next to high buildings.
Knowledge becomes ever more important. Whoever has – and can keep – a dominant edge in real-time surveillance can, with intelligent and motivated troops, outfox a larger enemy every time.
Thoughts?
Published in General
Russia might have had a chance of conquering Ukraine if the US and the rest of NATO had taken a detached attitude toward the invasion. But even then the Ukrainians would have likely fought an insurgency campaign.
As it actually happened, however, numerous wealthy nations have been shoveling weapons to Ukrainians and in some cases it isn’t just governments that have been supplying Ukraine with weapons and aid.
Ukraine Aid Ops http://linktr.ee/ukraineaidops takes donations from people to provide material for soldiers. The people of Lithuania raised a pot of money privately to purchase a Bayraktar drone from Turkey. Turkey responded by giving Ukraine the Bayraktar for free allowing the money donated by Lithuanians to use it for humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
The Russian GDP is 1.5 trillion dollars.
But to put that in perspective, Canada’s GDP is 1.6 trillion and the United Kingdom’s GDP is 2.7 trillion.
A few months ago Japan did a 180 degree turn on sending aid into an armed conflict and sent Ukraine several hundred millions of dollars in aid.
So, essentially there are economies totaling over 30 trillion dollars funding the Ukraine side of this conflict and a 1.5 trillion dollar economy funding the Russian side of the conflict.
Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya claims that the regime of self-proclaimed President Aleksandr Lukashenko gave orders to Belarusian troops to attack Ukraine, but the highest echelon of officers disobeyed the orders.
Former General of the US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, says that Ukraine will win and that Ukraine will recapture all of the territory it lost post February 23, 2022 by the end of summer.
Very true. It’s the #1 and #2 militaries going up against one another and the Russians are not going to go all-in because it will make them vulnerable to future Nato moves in the very near term. And there is also China to consider.
I listen to Duran as well. It’s good, but repetitive. As for Gonzalo Lira, I basically ignore him and he isn’t that frequently on.
There also is Jacob Dreizen. His blog is good.
And Scott Ritter. Scott Ritter is from the left and is of Iraq weapons inspection fame – saying there were no wmds in Iraq. Among other things. They got him for his attraction to teenage girls. Never get Bill Clinton for that though. Shows how the American justice system works.
There also is Robert Barnes on. Barnes is a lawyer and applies his methodology to determine what he thinks sounds plausible and what not with all the propaganda swirling around. Barnes was heavily involved in Trump’s campaign and has personal insights into litigation regarding the campaign and how rules were changed and who blocked litigation, who raised money on the election fraud and then did nothing about it (RNC). He also is litigating with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on covid against Pfizer.
Defense Politics Asia provides daily updates on the military map. Out of Singapore. Wierd sense of humor.
Also check in with Indian press. You could probably give me more insight into that.
I listen to the Gray Zone. Most definitely from the left.
BTW, I post a lot of links to particularly good reports in the Red Pill Zone, a group you can join. Join us. Just posted this link in the Red Pill.
1.
U.S. GDP vs Afghanistan GDP in 2001: About $10 Trillion vs. about … $3 Billion.
U.S. GDP vs Iraq GDP in 2003: About $12 Trillion vs. about … $25 Billion.
Point: Comparing the GDP of the two sides in a war is not a very good way to go about predicting which side is going to win the war.
2.
Furthermore, …
GDP (even when PPP adjusted) is a measure the value of which has quite considerable limitations. Here’s what I think is a thought-provoking thread that not only addresses those limitations, but does so within the overall context of the current war in Ukraine:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513005692986175498.html
And slightly trippy, what with two Good Greek Boys called Alex. Also, it seems almost personal when they speak about that Ursula Van der etc. woman. ??
I listen to a lot of the ones you mentioned, and will investigate the others. And I’ve applied for the RPZ.
I’m (finally) infuriated with the main stream media on this. I don’t know why, but this is the straw.
That was really thought provoking.
Putin wanted to de-Nazify Ukraine. Now, 100 days into the war, you’d be hard pressed to find any Nazis in Ukraine. I’d call that a win.
Thank you.
I don’t know why you think Biden wanted this war. It sounded to me like he was making Russia-will-invade talk to scare the U.S. into stepping aside and letting Putin have an agreement that would provide for eventual control of Ukraine. But when Russia invaded and Ukraine actually resisted, he couldn’t afford to look bad, so has been trash-talking Putin for public consumption while slow-walking any actual aid to Ukraine.
As to what kind of person Biden is, I think we agree.
Do you have a link for that? Google Search hasn’t found it for me yet. I’m curious as to her basis for that statement.
That’s certainly the Moscow line. We’ll see how well that holds up in a month or two. I see either a nasty stalemate, or Russian corrosion, but no Putin victory. He’s made too many mistakes, burnt up too much of his army and economy.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/belarusian-troops-given-orders-fight-192516745.html
sourced from:
No named ultimate source, so salt to taste.
Even if it’s just the Azov Batallion, or movement – Azov has metastasized.
He wants the war president bounce without actually fighting a war against a nuclear (allegedly, maybe) peer power.
Offering to evacuate Zelensky to Lviv (and eventually to govt in exile in Poland?) clearly illustrated what he really wanted from this.
Apart from arms sales and weakening an already weak ‘rival’ I think it’s been a disaster for him – especially looking at the long term implications for European economic stability and the dollar as global reserve.
The Azov militia has changed some of the patches to remove the Nazi symbology, but they are stuck with their tattoos. They lost a lot of dudes in Mariupol. Will the remnants put on the Nazi patches later? Maybe.
The logistics favor Russia as long as the fighting is constrained to the eastern oblasts. Ukraine has long supply lines starting at the Polish border and the transportation east-west has been heavily damaged. I don’t think Ukraine is capable of advancing all the weapons we are sending them to the eastern front (about 1000 miles).
She said it, but what her sources are I have no idea.
EDIT: Locke On beat me to it.
Well …
I guess it is a Occam’s Razor type thing. I can’t imagine someone stupid enough to make the pre-war statements Biden did ( basically, alternately stating the U.S. and NATO would step aside militarily if Russia attacked, and then bragging that our great diplomatic effort had intimidated the Russian’s out of attacking. ) without the the goal being to get the Russians to attack. It sounded to me like Biden was both saying there would be little cost to Russia attacking, and that the Russians and Putin were cowards if they didn’t. That is is how I interpreted Biden’s pre-war statements.
I am unable to imagine an administration and President stupid enough to make those statements without the goal being to get Russia to attack. However, it could just be a failure of my imagination.
But Biden has successfully gotten us to focus on Russia rather than China, so we lose.
By itself the difference between the GDPs of the nations supporting Ukraine and the GDP of Russia doesn’t tell you which side is going to win the war. That part is correct.
However, it is important to note that in the case of the US led war in Iraq, Saddam Hussain is no longer in power in Iraq and neither are his two sons, Uday and Qusay.
The Afghanistan example demonstrates that if one side is extremely determined to win (the Taliban) and the other side ends up taking the attitude that the situation in Afghanistan is of little concern (The United States), then GDP calculations don’t matter.
However, in the Russia v Ukraine conflict, the Ukrainians seem to think that the situation in Ukraine is of concern to them.
If Putin can somehow convince either the Ukrainians or NATO countries and other countries currently supporting Ukraine that Ukraine doesn’t mean all that much, Putin can win the war. But as long as Ukraine as the will to fight and NATO countries are motivated to continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, the GDP difference is extremely important.
Biden hasn’t gotten us to focus on Russia; Putin has gotten us to focus on Russia.
If Putin loses in Ukraine, Xi Jinping might realize that NATO countries actually have the spine and the capability to defeat an aggressive nation and might decide that invading Taiwan isn’t such a great idea.
The easiest way to convince Xi Jinping that invading Taiwan would be a cakewalk would be for the United States and other western allied nations to take Switzerland’s position of not providing arms to Ukraine and allow Putin to win in a cakewalk.
If Putin loses, the United States wins. If Putin wins, the United States loses.
The fact that the main battle happening now in Ukraine is in Severodonetsk instead of not Kyiv makes it appear that Russia hasn’t been successful in its war aims.
Putin’s war was initially about seizing a country larger than France.
This eventually led to the occupation of territory the size of Greece.
It then tried to invade the unoccupied part of Donbas, a region as large as Belgium.
Now it wants to hold on to part of a town the size of South Bronx.
FWIW, …
On Feb 27, in another online discussion group I participate in, I posted the following map and accompanied it with these comments:”I’m beginning to wonder whether the end result will be a Ukraine map that looks like this (note: Kiev remains the capital of Ukraine, on the west bank of the Dnieper river).”
As of today, a bit over 100 days into the war, it looks like Putin is about half way there. Hard to say how things will proceed from here, of course, but I suspect a slow, relentless grind toward the Dnieper through the summer and into fall.
There is no balance, no judgement unless of course the object is to speed the destruction of the US. Not Biden’s objective, of course, he doesn’t know anything except that he’s in debt to China and uses what brain he has left to keep us from understanding. Of course we want Putin to spend, suffer and weaken, but that doesn’t take 40 billion. How much for the border? I’m sorry it’s insane.
Former General of the US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges has said that he thinks Ukraine will recapture all of the territory it lost since February 24 of this year by the end of summer.
The problem Russia has is that as the war grinds on, Russia has to resort to older, less capable weapons while as the war grinds on Ukraine gains access from its allies (the US, the UK, Sweden, Spain, Slovakia, France, Denmark) more capable weapons.
I think Hodges is probably right. But in about 3 months we will know if he was right.
Then a question might arise as to how far Ukraine will go to try to recapture the territory it lost in 2014. I’ve heard skepticism that Ukraine could recapture Crimea.
The land area
in question is about half of what is delineated above, if you just consider the areas having majority Russian speaking population . (See second map of majority language). Russia will struggle to be able to hold any area not friendly (Russian speaking) and not contiguous with Russia. Russia currently occupies most of that area, except for Odessa area (western red area).
This is about the same areas as were included in the Minsk agreement. I expect any final peace agreement to be similar to the territories in the Minsk agreement. If that happens, we will end up with a situation, which could have been achieved without the current warfare and without driving Russia into China’s arms. When will that happen? When the US tires of sponsoring the regime in Ukraine. Europe is already moving on. I am getting the feeling that US politicians have put the checkbook away. Election season is coming and will be about domestic issues.
I am going to give my honest thoughts and ignore getting into fights with people. I have seen a few posts by people so far on this thread who have bought the cool aid from Ukraine and its pretty sad to see. When I write my book on this war, “The Ghost of Kiev and other Fantasies” I am sure to draw a lot of fire.
The point I am answering is going to be on Tanks. I think people dont understand that ‘big dumb platforms’ are getting the same amount of casualties they always do. Tanks have a role, they are doing that role properly and they are taking the types of casualties that tanks normally take on the battlefield.
Americans have for to long fought inadequate opponents who dont have the capability to really fight them toe to toe. Tanks always take casualties from anti-tank weapons. This is nothing new. Doesnt change the fact that tanks are useful and are doing the role they are meant to.
So? Ben Hodges, another one of the Pentagon’s liars says this and it will of course come true. Just as all the things this same group told us about Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria . . .
And if he is wrong, and instead Russia continues to gain even more territory, what then? Nato boots on the ground? These people want World War III.
What I want is the total destruction of this cabal within our government who are doing so much harm to our country. I want a return to a foreign policy based on the principles of George Washington and John Quincy Adams, and not based on the principles of Woodrow Wilson and George W. Bush that have led us into this predicament. Every Republican who voted for the aid package to Ukraine and has not vociferously opposed Biden and his policy is just as responsible for the inflation we are facing. And it’s only going to get worse.
What you don’t seem to realize in your hubris is that Americans project their power through its carrier fleet. Both China and Russia can destroy that fleet in a conflict.
Here are some other things Gen. Hodges has said (links at the bottom):
Mar 15: “Russian generals are running out of time, ammunition, and manpower. …” in a piece titled “The Next 10 Days Will Decide This War”.
Mar 20: “This week is decisive. Russian forces are culminating. …” in a tweet.
Apr 11: “”The next two weeks will determine what happens.” in a TalkTV interview.
May 9 (a month later):”… Ukraine is “going to get Russia back to the 23 Feb line I think, candidly, by the end of the summer” in an interview with Christiane Amanpour.
But then, on May 20, the last Azov defenders in Mariupol surrendered, followed by the Russians grinding their way through a dozen or so towns in the East and such. Which I think explains Gen. Hodges’ amending his May 9 assessment to a decidedly less categorical one, …
“Russians will culminate by end of August.” in a May 25 tweet, followed by “They’ll culminate in July after Western aid is finally felt.” in a Jun 1 tweet.
I’m afraid that Gen. Hodges’ track record so far doesn’t inspire me with much confidence in any future assessments of his.
Links:
https://cepa.org/the-next-10-days-will-decide-this-war/
https://www.npr.org/2022/05/24/1100898004/a-battlefield-assessment-three-months-after-russia-invaded-ukraine?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social
Except that polling suggests even most Rusophone Ukrainians have no desire to become Russians. Any occupation of Ukraine will be long and ugly.