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‘If I Can Find You, I Can Target You’
There are some lessons to be learned from the Russian invasion of Ukraine for European nations, NATO, and for US forces. The tuition for those lessons is very expensive. Expensive for Ukrainian civilians, and monetarily for NATO nations. Expensive for Russian families and Russian soldiers that have died in the thousands.
Let’s move on beyond Putin’s disappointment that he and Russian soldiers were not welcomed as liberators in Ukraine. Putin may be healthy but he’s delusional in his belief that he would be welcomed as a liberator in Ukraine, or in his belief in Russia, and Moscow in particular is the “Third Rome.”
The level of destruction and targeting of civilians in Ukraine has not been seen in Europe since WWII. There is an interesting article in Task and Purpose about a tactical Russian failure in Ukraine. Lessons that should be learned by NATO nations, as well as US military leadership.
Gender dysphoria and Woke reading lists are excess baggage for a military force. As the late Boss Mongo stated in one of his essays: a non-commissioned soldier, when informed of Boss Mongo’s plan for an attack, told him that he hoped his plan included murder. A good battle plan should never include a plan for a fair fight.
Russian reliance on cell phones and 3G and 4G military communications has created a problem for Russian forces:
The Ukrainians claim to have killed 12 general Russian officers since late February, in part because the Russians have resorted to using cell phones when their communications systems break down.
“It is not hard to geo-locate someone on a phone talking in the clear,” retired Army Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, told the New York Times.
When Russian troops cross into Ukraine, their cell phones emit a roaming signal that connects to Ukraine’s cellular network, allowing the Ukrainians to triangulate where the Russians are by using the closest three cell towers, said Artem Starosiek, CEO of Molfar, an open-source intelligence community based in Kyiv.
Why don’t the Russians destroy the Ukrainian cell phone network?
Amid numerous reports that the Ukrainians can track and target Russian troops when they use cell phones, one question remains: Why don’t the Russians destroy Ukraine’s cellular network?
The answer: They need it, said James Lewis, a technology expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C.
“That’s ridiculous, but that’s where it is,” Lewis told Task & Purpose. “The Russians need 3G and 4G for their comms to work. They didn’t set up the independent communications networks that the Americans or Chinese might have set up.”
The Russian kleptocracy plays a part in this problem:
While the Russians had developed encrypted communications handsets for their special operations forces, those handsets were not widely distributed among Russian troops before the latest invasion of Ukraine, Lewis said.
Corruption could be another factor that has played into why the Russian military has proven to be so poor at using secure communications, he said.
“There are good examples – not always public – of the Russians identifying a security goal and then allocating, in one case, $10 billion to it; and $5 billion of it ended up in Switzerland,” Lewis said.
Poland discovered the cell phone lesson in their own military exercises:
Looking at the Russian failures in Ukraine so far, it’s tempting to think the militaries of NATO members wouldn’t make the same mistake, but they have. In November, Polish troops that had been deployed to the border with Belarus left the dating apps on their cell phones on. Just across the border in the city of Grodno, the Belarusians knew exactly how far away the Polish troops were.
The US Marine Corps has also found and studied the cell phone problem. You can click on the “Task and Purpose” link in this post for the full story.
Published in Military
But not every unfair fight is murder.
Invade my country sometime and see how that goes.
Sounds like a non-murderous unfair fight would ensue. Seems fair.
This is the sort of thing that I fear in America with a sectarian Civil War many of the very people on the Left urging us on in Ukraine seem to want to happen here. They want to provoke armed responses. The problem is, there is no way to keep them all safe. They think they would be safe, just as they are now, from their polices. Good luck with that.
Colonel General Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh, his second in command of the FSB Fifth Service were put under house arrest within days of the invasion. He has since been transferred to the Lefortovo Charm School. The Fifth Service are the foreign spy guys who would have been responsible for gathering intelligence on Ukraine. Whoops. Maybe Sergey and Anatoly were blowing sunshine up Vladimir’s skirts.
Trent Telenko posted a heat map of Russian SIM cards roaming the Ukrainian cell phone networks:
He went on to comment that Russia cannot solve this problem, in part because:
Before we cast stones, let’s see what happens to the $40B we’re going to send to Ukraine.
The Russians deserve every stone that can be cast.
There is a famous rant about wasted gifts and opportunities at the end of Alfred Bester’s The Stars My Destination which applies, but a microsecond’s thought reminds me that it applies to the rest of the human race, too, including America’s supposedly admirable elites.
This graphic precisely offers up my thoughts and feelings about Ukraine.
If I did care about Ukraine, I would be totally bewildered that the President leading us into this Bizarro-world of combat has announced as a way to reassure us about fuel shortages that we can simply buy fuel from Russia.
Has Biden and any military advisers not studied WWII and what happened to Hitler when late in that war, the Third Reich need fuel and was shut off from Greece, shut off from Iran, and had done so poorly in Russia that he couldn’t get fuel out of that country either? (To his credit though, he never planned on fighting a war against Russia and purchasing fuel from the Ruskies simultaneously.)
Additionally, to guarantee that we have at least one hand tied behind our back, Biden wants to wage this war while he shuts down the Arctic pipelines and oil fields, as well as other places where American firms have been drilling.
Biden was also counting on the UAE to come through with some type of gas and oil relief, but that won’t hppen either.
Meanwhile, there is no way to know whether what we are hearing about Russia’s military activities or Ukrainian military activities are really propaganda and which activities are true.
The American public is told that the whole world is allied with us. But that has meaning only if you somehow consider “the whole world” to be the USA, Australia, Great Britain and NATO countries.
China and India are quite content to sit this whole affair out, although China may once again play “Friendly Banker” and add to our thirty trillions of dollars of debt by giving Joe the tens of billions he says will then go to the Ukraine.
But even if China does play Friendly Banker, on Friday, Congress got their panties in a collective knot when Sen Rand Paul explained the only way that they could get his approval for some 40 billion for Zelensky is if a Special Auditor was installed to ensure every penny of these funds would go to the items the public is being told they will go to!
The other hand to be tied behind Uncle Sam’s back is the decline of the dollar. The Russian ruble, which is now tied to gold for its backing, is zooming up to the top of the list of desirable currencies, while America’s dollar is just sad.
Oh and add in an obviously planned and created food crisis here at home, and all bets are off.
On top of that, May 22nd-23rd, The WHO will have our official signatures on its treaty. Since technically, we are still under a state of emergency due to COVID, any provisions that Bill Gate’s proxy org desires can be announced & the American public will be brought to heel.
Since our national sovereignty is collapsing, should I really decide to support a civil war so far away?
The war between Russia and Ukraine is not a civil war. Ukrainians are not Russians.
Trump and friends had this under control. Biden and friends went way out of their way to pave the path for this war. They wanted it, though I do not know why. I feel bad for the people of Ukraine but their corrupt government worked with our corrupt government to allow this and given Biden’s handling of Afghanistan we need to stay the heck away from that.
Or, maybe since “we” – collectively – started it, “we” – collectively – have some obligation to clean up the mess we helped create?
And it’s possible to have enemies in more than one location at a time. Beijing, for example.
The purpose of the war may have been to justify the “clean up”.
This was an issue in the US military 2 decades ago. I imagine it is worse now.
Secure comms are expensive and never available in the quantity needed.
The carnage in Bosnia was worse, at least on a per capita basis, as was the refugee problem in Kosovo (again, per capita).
Don’t misunderstand me, Russia is a threat to our vital interests that Serbia was not, and Ukraine and its surrounding countries have strategic significance that Bosnia/Kosovo and surrounding countries did not, but the quoted sentence is simply incorrect.
They do, but recommissioning mothballed catapults is surprisingly expensive.
That may very well be true, but let those without sins be the ones to cast them.
So much for jury trials!
This is what Finland brings to NATO:
“On the ground, Finland has one of the strongest artillery forces in Europe with around 1500 different artillery systems. It also maintains relatively large and effective conscript and reserve forces. In December 2021 poll, 90% of male Finnish participants and 84% of women said they would be ready to defend their country to the best of their abilities, some of the highest figures in Europe.”
“And, “when it comes to fighting in the Arctic and fighting in the snow, nobody beats the Finns,” Townsend said, commenting on the capable nature of Finland’s modern land forces, as well as the country’s historic combat prowess in winter warfighting.”
For instance, Finland has one of the more powerful air forces in Europe, Townsend told Insider.
“They’ve been flying the F/A-18 with the latest US munitions hung on them, and they’re going to buy the F-35,” he said, referring to the US-made fifth-generation stealth fighter the country intends to acquire in a multi-billion deal.”
“He added that both Sweden and Finland have “very professional and modern” navies, explaining that “they carry, in terms of sensors and shooters, quite an interoperable and capable mix of firepower.” Swedish subs, for example, have demonstrated their effectiveness in naval war games.”
“In a 2005 exercise, Sweden’s HSMS Gotland, a small diesel-powered submarine with a quiet, Stirling engine, was able to get close to and take out the USS Ronald Reagan, a $6.2 billion US Navy aircraft carrier, without detection. Over the next few years during war games, the Gotland was continuously successful, able to stealthily overcome destroyers and nuclear attack submarines.”
“And Sweden has in its arsenal of combat aircraft the Gripen fighters, a jet that the country previously claimed would excel at taking out Sukhoi aircraft. The Sukhoi aircraft flown by the Russians are notorious for their ability to maneuver in dogfights, but Sweden has said its jets have the edge.
“Gripen, especially the E-model, is designed to kill Sukhois. There we have a black belt,” Maj. Gen. Mats Helgesson, then the commander of Sweden’s air force, told Yle at a presentation in 2019. In particular, these planes are said to shine in electronic warfare.”
Quotes from Business Insider
See the movie “Down Periscope” for more details.
This is very interesting. I didn’t know there was such a thing. I believe Stirling engines are commonly used with nuclear reactors but I had no idea there was a diesel powered version on a sub.
I understand replacing one part can cost more than a whole new catapult.
Shows how incompetent our military has gotten.
It seems like it’s pretty easy for a small country to have a more advanced, but small, military.
My late dad was a submarine combat veteran in the Pacific. He earned his Silver Dolphins as an 18 year-old. He went back to the boats after earning a university degree. He earned his Gold Dolphins as an officer. After WWII he was the senior watch officer, and the third in command on his last boat. He was the only officer on his last boat that had been in combat on a submarine.
He did not have a science degree so under Admiral Rickover he had to transfer to Naval Intelligence. He worked for Lockheed and was involved in the Polaris and Poseidon missile program. He worked on the Harpoon missile program.
He advocated for a diesel electric submarine program as an addition to the Nuke submarine fleet. Diesel electric boats do not have the same heat signature as a Nuke. They are harder to find and locate. Perhaps that is why Gotland story fascinates me.