If Ukraine Wins, Who Loses?

 

There’s the obvious answers – Putin, the image of Russian might, the Duginist dream of solidifying Russian control over its insolent children. 

Who else? The Russian Orthodox Church, for declaring this a holy war? Xi, for his association with a loser whose actions renewed Taiwanese determination to stave off an invasion? The countries that have been buying Russian military gear and now have a rep, however justified, for buying junk? US pundits who backed Russia’s invasion? Renewable energy advocates, suddenly on the back foot because nuclear is a better option than Russian gas? US intelligence agencies that failed to figure out how the Russian forces are ancient and hollowed out by corruption?

You could also note who else wins: the West, for one. Superior armaments and tech, better logistics, the products of a more energetic and innovative culture. I suspect there’s a non-insubstantial intersection between those who are comfy with Russian control of Ukraine and those who would be irritated by a Western win, because the West is decadent and subject to rule from our Davos overlords, and ought not to prevail until it is overhauled and remade. 

This is not a thread about whether Ukraine will win, or what victory looks like. Just a question about what shakes out when it is apparent to all that Russia could not prevail. 

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  1. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    The necessity for our involvement in this conflict is maintaining a world order in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected.

    We are not involved in any nuclear arms treaty with Ukraine. Back to the topic, Truth is a loser in this conflict. It is more true than ever that Truth is the first casualty in war.

    We do have an agreement: the Budapest Memorandum.

    Not a treaty. Not enforceable.

    Well, we should have explained that to Ukraine. It looks like we didn’t. They gave up their nuclear arms to be responsible members of the family of world nations.

    Before you say “life’s not fair” and “caveat emptor, Ukraine, you suckers,” I would say that they know that particular life’s lesson better than anyone today.

    • #91
  2. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    The necessity for our involvement in this conflict is maintaining a world order in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected.

    We are not involved in any nuclear arms treaty with Ukraine. Back to the topic, Truth is a loser in this conflict. It is more true than ever that Truth is the first casualty in war.

    We do have an agreement: the Budapest Memorandum.

    Not a treaty. Not enforceable.

    The USA can enforce it at our will.

    As I noted above, the only “enforcement” under the Memorandum is to seek UN Security Council assistance. You can read the actual text here:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20180822045920/https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%202866/Part/volume-2866-I-50069.pdf

    Now, can we do things outside the purview of the Memorandum? Sure, but that’s not enforcing it on its own terms.

    Exactly. Powerful because Russia was and is on that council. 

    Reading the memorandum, and I studied it when this started, is pretty shocking in light of Russia’s recent actions. 

    • #92
  3. The Cynthonian Member
    The Cynthonian
    @TheCynthonian

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Nato will be shown to be ineffective. The US will need to make a decision to either recognize Nato as a huge liability or step up to the plate and make Nato leaner (drop members) and more effective. Nato needs to either be a military alliance and stop being a social club . Otherwise, we should leave.

    I disagree within this context. As of right now NATO has proven to be tremendously effective for its member states. I may have agreed that it was unwise to expand NATO in the first place, but you can’t unscramble eggs. I might also agree that NATO should perhaps have been disbanded at the end of the cold war.

    The question of whether or not NATO is good for the US is a point we can debate. It certainly has exposed the US to tremendous liabilities. Also it has been expensive for the US. That having been said it has enhanced US geostrategic standing for many years. It has allow the US to maintain a strategic foothold in Europe, again we can argue if this is good or not.

    There also needs to be a huge retirement of brass in the Pentagon.

    On this point we agree whole heartedly. We have more Flag officers in uniform right now than during World War 2. We need to reform our bloated military as well.

    But what will follow them ?   The current officer corps is surely composed of the same useless, PC-indoctrinated types as their leadership.

    • #93
  4. Chuck Thatcher
    Chuck
    @Chuckles

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    ctlaw (View Comment):

    James Lileks: Xi, for his association with a loser whose actions renewed Taiwanese determination to stave off an invasion?

    No. The war has relegated Russia to China’s junior partner in the new axis of evil. Xi’s bargaining power has massively increased in any dealings with Russia.

    The war has also emphasized China’s ability to devastate Taiwan. China massively outguns Russia and Taiwan is a more concentrated target than Ukraine.

    That being said, the RU-UA war going hot was a lost opportunity for Xi. Xi could have put enough money on the table to turn the whole Belarus-Ukraine-Southwest Russia region into a Chinese special economic zone for access to the EU market. Lots of Chinese companies would look at the cheap labor, nuclear power, and natural resources in that area and see a massive competitive advantage over siting facilities in the EU (think of all the German energy and water regulations Tesla faces and contrast with what a BYD or Xpeng would face in UA).

     

    And this can’t happen now because?

    It was only as an adult it finally dawned on me what I heard from my dad time and time again: Can’t never did!

    • #94
  5. DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax)
    @DonG

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Not a treaty. Not enforceable.

    The USA can enforce it at our will.

    We can always choose to fight, but a treaty can force us to do things against our will.  Again, Truth is a loser in war time.

    • #95
  6. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    James Lileks: Renewable energy advocates, suddenly on the back foot because nuclear is a better option than Russian gas?

    How are renewable energy advocates harmed by Zelensky’s open armed Western global-warming embrace of renewables?

    This is one of the few aspects of this tragic event that I consider particularly positive.

    Zelensky’s opinion about renewables, whatever it is, is irrelevant. What matters is that the war highlights the danger of western Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Further, a Ukrainian victory — or even, at this point, a Russian victory that took far longer and cost far more than anyone expected — increases the perception that Russia is not a strong and reliable trading partner for such a critical resource.

    What that means is that Europe has to consider being more energy independent, since there is no ready fossil fuel import alternative that can match Russian oil and gas.

    And any time a nation seriously considers becoming energy independent, it has to take a realistic look at wind and solar — and then conclude that they aren’t viable alternatives to reliable baseload power. That’s good, because it encourages them to stop thinking about these sources as real alternatives to more traditional fossil fuel, nuclear, and hydroelectric power.

    Alternative energy stops being attractive to people experiencing energy poverty. It’s kind of analogous to the sudden lack of interest in the phrase “birthing person.” Crises create focus.

     

    It isn’t only fuel/energy. It’s also food. European farmers get paid not to grow food (like US farmers). How about a fast review of that policy. It’s planting season.

    Fertilizer is another huge problem. It will take more time, but not that much. The atmosphere is 80% nitrogen. Phosphorus and Potassium (potash) are available though require some rerouting and mining. 

    Then there’s nickel and other metals. There need to be crash exploration and mining efforts. 

    The US is in a much better place than Europe. Or would be if we didn’t have the idiots in the Biden administration in charge. 

    • #96
  7. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    Hang On (View Comment):
    The US is in a much better place than Europe. Or would be if we didn’t have the idiots in the Biden administration in charge

    This applies to so many things.

    • #97
  8. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    The necessity for our involvement in this conflict is maintaining a world order in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected.

    We are not involved in any nuclear arms treaty with Ukraine. Back to the topic, Truth is a loser in this conflict. It is more true than ever that Truth is the first casualty in war.

    We do have an agreement: the Budapest Memorandum.

    Not a treaty. Not enforceable.

    Clinton promised something he could not and could not deliver.   He is good at making promises he can’t keep.  I suspect his wife would know.  

    • #98
  9. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    The necessity for our involvement in this conflict is maintaining a world order in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected.

    We are not involved in any nuclear arms treaty with Ukraine. Back to the topic, Truth is a loser in this conflict. It is more true than ever that Truth is the first casualty in war.

    We do have an agreement: the Budapest Memorandum.

    Not a treaty. Not enforceable.

    The USA can enforce it at our will.

    but shouldn’t for the same reason we shouldn’t restart the JCPOA. The US is a Constitutional Republic. We shouldn’t ignore the Constitution to enforce an agreement that was never ratified. I do believe what is happening now is well within Biden’s remit. I think I remember the Congress authorizing the aid, so effectively that would put it up to Biden what manner that takes.

    Yup, The Democrats love to give money we do not have and they can mostly steal back.  Biden was most likely giddy about this aspect.  Provided he understood what was happening.  

    • #99
  10. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    These Democrat Warmongers (and their pet Republicans like Kinzinger) spout off about victory, but can’t even tell you what that looks like.

    They also can’t clearly state what a woman is.  

    • #100
  11. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):
    Yup, The Democrats Congress love to give money we do not have and they can mostly steal back.  Biden was most likely giddy about this aspect.  Provided he understood what was happening.  

    FIFY.  This is a bipartisan problem.

    • #101
  12. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    What it ultimately comes down to is: who do you think is wiser and had better judgment: George Washington or George W. Bush (and Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden). My money is George Washington. 

    • #102
  13. Ed G. Inactive
    Ed G.
    @EdG

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Ed G. (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    The necessity for our involvement in this conflict is maintaining a world order in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected. These principles have kept the world pretty much war free since World War II. We spent a lot of money and time hammering out agreements to make it so.

    Korea, Cuba, Viet Nam, Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan. These are just those with US involvement. There are many, many others too. The world has not been war-free sine WW2. There have been invasions and genocides.

    As for nuclear arms treaties – are those really respected? How would we know?

    All of those other crises were internal.

    This is a crisis between two sovereign nations. It’s different.

    Incorrect. Korea also involved the Chinese and US. Cuba involved us and them and USSR. Viet Nam involved surrounding sovereign nations. Yugoslavia wasn’t exactly a nation to begin with, more like many separate nations jammed in together most of which claiming sovereignty. Iraq and Afghanistan were both invaded by us; Afghanistan and Chechnya also invaded by USSR and Russia. That’s just the ones we were involved in.

    Somalia, Tibet, Israel, countless in Africa. Then there  are all of the internal conflicts engineered by US or USSR during and after the cold war.

    • #103
  14. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Ukraine is losing and being ground down. It is the second largest military going up against the largest. Ukraine sends troops and weapons to the front in the south and east, but it will run out of troops. Eventually. And it is the most effective Ukrainian troops who die first and most.

    The weapons systems being sent aren’t very effective. Drones as a weapon system are easily countered. The systems to counter drones aren’t everywhere yet, but that is going to change.

    The battlefield missle systems are being captured. The Ukrainian weapons have to travel the length of Ukraine, which is Chicago to Boston. And the rail system no longer works because it is electric and the substations have been destroyed.

    What will Ukraine look like after? It will be devoid of a coastline, Transnistrea will be joined to the eastern part, and Kiev will be on the border. The war will continue for at least another year. And may just continue at low level for another 8 years as it already has.

    The US, which is the main proponent of a long war , will have to wait for another administration . Even then no guarantee .

    -The VDV will beg to differ on who is being ground down.

    -if the weapon systems are so ineffective why have the Russian lost >600 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles? It looks like the Russia art of war is what is defective- they started with enormous advantages but have little to show for it so far. They have been outfought and outsmarted by a considerable margin to date. The war is far from over, but it is clear that Russia has severely underperformed.

    -Russia depends on the rail lines as much, or more, than Ukraine. The Russian weapons are being transport a great distance as well- but less in the Donbas than in the battle of Kyiv (which BTW Russia lost handily).

    • #104
  15. DrewInWisconsin, Oik! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    • #105
  16. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    DrewInWisconsin, Oik! (View Comment):

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    Forget it. He’s rolling.

    • #106
  17. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    MiMac (View Comment):
    if the weapon systems are so ineffective why have the Russian lost >600 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles? It looks like the Russia art of war is what is defective- they started with enormous advantages but have little to show for it so far. They have been outfought and outsmarted by a considerable margin to date. The war is far from over, but it is clear that Russia has severely underperformed.

    What have the Ukes lost, in terms of men and equipment, both nominal and as a percentage of their starting forces? If we don’t have even semi-reliable numbers for those, we can’t judge who is “winning” in what is becoming a war of attrition.

    Though I do agree that based on pre-war expectations, Russia has way under-performed. But as noted, those expectations were based on garbage intelligence and analysis.

    • #107
  18. Vince Guerra Member
    Vince Guerra
    @VinceGuerra

    MiMac (View Comment):
    Puppet states don’t destroy over 600 tanks of one of the mightiest armies of the world in weeks.

    They do when master pulling the strings resides in Washington D.C. (or San Francisco, or Martha’s Vinyard depending on the week). 

    • #108
  19. Vince Guerra Member
    Vince Guerra
    @VinceGuerra

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    Who loses? The US taxpayer and citizen no matter what. The Ukraine people no matter what.

    Who wins? The Democrats and their cronies. They have convinced themselves that Putin is the devil and will pump as much US money as possible over there so they and theirs can steal it back until they are made to stop.

    Plenty of Republicans and their cronies will win too. 

    • #109
  20. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Vince Guerra (View Comment):

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    Who loses? The US taxpayer and citizen no matter what. The Ukraine people no matter what.

    Who wins? The Democrats and their cronies. They have convinced themselves that Putin is the devil and will pump as much US money as possible over there so they and theirs can steal it back until they are made to stop.

    Plenty of Republicans and their cronies will win too.

    Maybe.  But I do not have the time or space to list the entire list of rascals.  I mainly go with the ones at the top and worse.  As a rule the GOP is to incompetent to be very good at the graft nor have the support systems the Democrats do.  

    • #110
  21. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Ed G. (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Ed G. (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    The necessity for our involvement in this conflict is maintaining a world order in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected. These principles have kept the world pretty much war free since World War II. We spent a lot of money and time hammering out agreements to make it so.

    Korea, Cuba, Viet Nam, Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan. These are just those with US involvement. There are many, many others too. The world has not been war-free sine WW2. There have been invasions and genocides.

    As for nuclear arms treaties – are those really respected? How would we know?

    All of those other crises were internal.

    This is a crisis between two sovereign nations. It’s different.

    Incorrect. Korea also involved the Chinese and US. Cuba involved us and them and USSR. Viet Nam involved surrounding sovereign nations. Yugoslavia wasn’t exactly a nation to begin with, more like many separate nations jammed in together most of which claiming sovereignty. Iraq and Afghanistan were both invaded by us; Afghanistan and Chechnya also invaded by USSR and Russia. That’s just the ones we were involved in.

    Somalia, Tibet, Israel, countless in Africa. Then there are all of the internal conflicts engineered by US or USSR during and after the cold war.

    Those other conflicts began as internal conflicts, not external between two sovereign nations. Yes, other nations became involved, but the initial conflict–and we are still in the initial conflict stage with respect to Ukraine and Russia–was definitely internal civil strife. Should any outsiders have become involved in the conflicts you’ve listed? Probably not, although once Russia or China became involved, that opened the door for our involvement. Nevertheless, these are vastly different situations.

    • #111
  22. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Vince Guerra (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):
    Puppet states don’t destroy over 600 tanks of one of the mightiest armies of the world in weeks.

    They do when master pulling the strings resides in Washington D.C. (or San Francisco, or Martha’s Vinyard depending on the week).

    Not even close to the truth-puppets fail when confronted by superior powers if their master isn’t there (see Afghanistan for example)-Ukraine has risen to the challenge-and vastly over performed. You can repeat untruths over & over-but they don’t become truths. There is no denying that the Ukrainians have been an inspiration to any who love freedom-but, unfortunately, all too many will acquiesce to subservience.

    • #112
  23. Ed G. Inactive
    Ed G.
    @EdG

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Ed G. (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Ed G. (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    The necessity for our involvement in this conflict is maintaining a world order in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected. These principles have kept the world pretty much war free since World War II. We spent a lot of money and time hammering out agreements to make it so.

    Korea, Cuba, Viet Nam, Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan. These are just those with US involvement. There are many, many others too. The world has not been war-free sine WW2. There have been invasions and genocides.

    As for nuclear arms treaties – are those really respected? How would we know?

    All of those other crises were internal.

    This is a crisis between two sovereign nations. It’s different.

    Incorrect. Korea also involved the Chinese and US. Cuba involved us and them and USSR. Viet Nam involved surrounding sovereign nations. Yugoslavia wasn’t exactly a nation to begin with, more like many separate nations jammed in together most of which claiming sovereignty. Iraq and Afghanistan were both invaded by us; Afghanistan and Chechnya also invaded by USSR and Russia. That’s just the ones we were involved in.

    Somalia, Tibet, Israel, countless in Africa. Then there are all of the internal conflicts engineered by US or USSR during and after the cold war.

    Those other conflicts began as internal conflicts, not external between two sovereign nations. Yes, other nations became involved, but the initial conflict–and we are still in the initial conflict stage with respect to Ukraine and Russia–was definitely internal civil strife. Should anyone have become involved? Probably not, although once Russia or China became involved, that opened the door for our involvement. Nevertheless, these are vastly different situations.

    I named several that were between two sovereign nations to begin with, and there were many I didn’t name specifically. Many of those which began as internal conflicts were very likely engineered proxies.

    All the situations are vastly different. All of them are also remarkably similar. The main point being that we didn’t and don’t have the world you originally described in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected so therefore we need to get involved in Ukraine in order to maintain that order.

    • #113
  24. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):
    What matters is that the war highlights the danger of western Europe’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

    It only highlights it to you and other sane people. Zelensky went lecturing on his green stance after the war began, and after Germany said Whoah! His position is to support the mess that the green agenda generates. This is not necessarily a losing proposition for the green agenda.

    They would claim that being “green” means you’re not dependent on anyone!

    Well, except for China, where most of that stuff is made, and where most of the raw materials come from.

    • #114
  25. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    MiMac (View Comment):

     

    -The VDV will beg to differ on who is being ground down.

    -if the weapon systems are so ineffective why have the Russian lost >600 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles? It looks like the Russia art of war is what is defective- they started with enormous advantages but have little to show for it so far. They have been outfought and outsmarted by a considerable margin to date. The war is far from over, but it is clear that Russia has severely underperformed.

    -Russia depends on the rail lines as much, or more, than Ukraine. The Russian weapons are being transport a great distance as well- but less in the Donbas than in the battle of Kyiv (which BTW Russia lost handily).

    I agree.  Russia is being fought to a near stalemate against a nation, Ukraine, that has 30 percent of the population of Russia.  

     

    • #115
  26. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Ukraine is losing and being ground down. It is the second largest military going up against the largest. Ukraine sends troops and weapons to the front in the south and east, but it will run out of troops. Eventually. And it is the most effective Ukrainian troops who die first and most.

    The weapons systems being sent aren’t very effective. Drones as a weapon system are easily countered. The systems to counter drones aren’t everywhere yet, but that is going to change.

    The battlefield missle systems are being captured. The Ukrainian weapons have to travel the length of Ukraine, which is Chicago to Boston. And the rail system no longer works because it is electric and the substations have been destroyed.

    What will Ukraine look like after? It will be devoid of a coastline, Transnistrea will be joined to the eastern part, and Kiev will be on the border. The war will continue for at least another year. And may just continue at low level for another 8 years as it already has.

    The US, which is the main proponent of a long war , will have to wait for another administration . Even then no guarantee .

    -The VDV will beg to differ on who is being ground down.

    -if the weapon systems are so ineffective why have the Russian lost >600 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles? It looks like the Russia art of war is what is defective- they started with enormous advantages but have little to show for it so far. They have been outfought and outsmarted by a considerable margin to date. The war is far from over, but it is clear that Russia has severely underperformed.

    -Russia depends on the rail lines as much, or more, than Ukraine. The Russian weapons are being transport a great distance as well- but less in the Donbas than in the battle of Kyiv (which BTW Russia lost handily).

    Still believing the nonsense? Watch Defense Politics Asia. Takes information from both sides, uses Twitter to verify with pictures/videos and geolocating. Plenty of videos of dead Ukrainian troops in fortifications because of shelling.

    The Russians haven’t lost more than 600 tanks. You must have seen the one tank 600 times on TikTok. And the death figures for the Ukrainians are 3 or 4 times higher. Rumor has it a Canadian general has been captured at Azovstahl in Mariupol and may go on trial in Moscow. Explains why the Ukrainians kept sending in helicopters that kept getting shot down.

    Russia does rely on rail lines. They are also electric. Ukraine is not immobilizing the Russian rail lines. Russia is immobilizing the Ukrainian rail lines. 

    • #116
  27. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Hang On (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Ukraine is losing and being ground down. It is the second largest military going up against the largest. Ukraine sends troops and weapons to the front in the south and east, but it will run out of troops. Eventually. And it is the most effective Ukrainian troops who die first and most.

    The weapons systems being sent aren’t very effective. Drones as a weapon system are easily countered. The systems to counter drones aren’t everywhere yet, but that is going to change.

    The battlefield missle systems are being captured. The Ukrainian weapons have to travel the length of Ukraine, which is Chicago to Boston. And the rail system no longer works because it is electric and the substations have been destroyed.

    What will Ukraine look like after? It will be devoid of a coastline, Transnistrea will be joined to the eastern part, and Kiev will be on the border. The war will continue for at least another year. And may just continue at low level for another 8 years as it already has.

    The US, which is the main proponent of a long war , will have to wait for another administration . Even then no guarantee .

    -The VDV will beg to differ on who is being ground down.

    -if the weapon systems are so ineffective why have the Russian lost >600 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles? It looks like the Russia art of war is what is defective- they started with enormous advantages but have little to show for it so far. They have been outfought and outsmarted by a considerable margin to date. The war is far from over, but it is clear that Russia has severely underperformed.

    -Russia depends on the rail lines as much, or more, than Ukraine. The Russian weapons are being transport a great distance as well- but less in the Donbas than in the battle of Kyiv (which BTW Russia lost handily).

    Still believing the nonsense? Watch Defense Politics Asia. Takes information from both sides, uses Twitter to verify with pictures/videos and geolocating. Plenty of videos of dead Ukrainian troops in fortifications because of shelling.

    The Russians haven’t lost more than 600 tanks. You must have seen the one tank 600 times on TikTok. And the death figures for the Ukrainians are 3 or 4 times higher. Rumor has it a Canadian general has been captured at Azovstahl in Mariupol and may go on trial in Moscow. Explains why the Ukrainians kept sending in helicopters that kept getting shot down.

    Russia does rely on rail lines. They are also electric. Ukraine is not immobilizing the Russian rail lines. Russia is immobilizing the Ukrainian rail lines.

    605 photo verified tank losses (obviously more losses than that since they only count photo verified losses). See:

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    – the Russians seem “accident prone” including their railroads:

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-rail-bridge-attack-ukraine-border

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/26/fuel-and-ammo-depots-keep-blowing-up-in-russia-ukraines-ballistic-missiles-might-be-why/?sh=446af7ef46c5

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/mystery-fires-sensitive-facilities-compound-russias-war-challenge/

    not to mention the “accident” on the Russian ship the Moskva- boy are they accident prone!

    addendum- it goes w/o saying that Putin’s plan to split/ weaken NATO has completely backfired- not only has Germany committed to increasing their defense expenditure ps by $100 billion but the US has given assurances to new nations that apply to NATO that the US will defend them while their application is processed ( ie Sweden- likely Finland would get similar guarantees)  https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521970729788620800

    • #117
  28. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Hang On (View Comment):
    War is bad. The worst.

    War is an ugly thing but not the ugliest of things. The decayed integrated state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight. Nothing, which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and can only be made free by the exertions of better men than himself.

    — John Stuart Mill

    • #118
  29. HeavyWater Reagan
    HeavyWater
    @HeavyWater

    The United States 7th Army Training Command is training 50 to 60 Ukrainian troops on the M777 howitzer artillery in Grafenwöhr, Germany. 

    The United States has now sent 80 percent of its howitzers offered to Ukraine, over 70 artillery batteries.

    In a month, expect Ukraine to capture more territory from Putin’s military over the next few weeks.

    • #119
  30. DrewInWisconsin, Oik! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Nah.

    • #120
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