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If Ukraine Wins, Who Loses?
There’s the obvious answers – Putin, the image of Russian might, the Duginist dream of solidifying Russian control over its insolent children.
Who else? The Russian Orthodox Church, for declaring this a holy war? Xi, for his association with a loser whose actions renewed Taiwanese determination to stave off an invasion? The countries that have been buying Russian military gear and now have a rep, however justified, for buying junk? US pundits who backed Russia’s invasion? Renewable energy advocates, suddenly on the back foot because nuclear is a better option than Russian gas? US intelligence agencies that failed to figure out how the Russian forces are ancient and hollowed out by corruption?
You could also note who else wins: the West, for one. Superior armaments and tech, better logistics, the products of a more energetic and innovative culture. I suspect there’s a non-insubstantial intersection between those who are comfy with Russian control of Ukraine and those who would be irritated by a Western win, because the West is decadent and subject to rule from our Davos overlords, and ought not to prevail until it is overhauled and remade.
This is not a thread about whether Ukraine will win, or what victory looks like. Just a question about what shakes out when it is apparent to all that Russia could not prevail.
Published in General
Well, we should have explained that to Ukraine. It looks like we didn’t. They gave up their nuclear arms to be responsible members of the family of world nations.
Before you say “life’s not fair” and “caveat emptor, Ukraine, you suckers,” I would say that they know that particular life’s lesson better than anyone today.
Exactly. Powerful because Russia was and is on that council.
Reading the memorandum, and I studied it when this started, is pretty shocking in light of Russia’s recent actions.
But what will follow them ? The current officer corps is surely composed of the same useless, PC-indoctrinated types as their leadership.
It was only as an adult it finally dawned on me what I heard from my dad time and time again: Can’t never did!
We can always choose to fight, but a treaty can force us to do things against our will. Again, Truth is a loser in war time.
It isn’t only fuel/energy. It’s also food. European farmers get paid not to grow food (like US farmers). How about a fast review of that policy. It’s planting season.
Fertilizer is another huge problem. It will take more time, but not that much. The atmosphere is 80% nitrogen. Phosphorus and Potassium (potash) are available though require some rerouting and mining.
Then there’s nickel and other metals. There need to be crash exploration and mining efforts.
The US is in a much better place than Europe. Or would be if we didn’t have the idiots in the Biden administration in charge.
This applies to so many things.
Clinton promised something he could not and could not deliver. He is good at making promises he can’t keep. I suspect his wife would know.
Yup, The Democrats love to give money we do not have and they can mostly steal back. Biden was most likely giddy about this aspect. Provided he understood what was happening.
They also can’t clearly state what a woman is.
FIFY. This is a bipartisan problem.
What it ultimately comes down to is: who do you think is wiser and had better judgment: George Washington or George W. Bush (and Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden). My money is George Washington.
Incorrect. Korea also involved the Chinese and US. Cuba involved us and them and USSR. Viet Nam involved surrounding sovereign nations. Yugoslavia wasn’t exactly a nation to begin with, more like many separate nations jammed in together most of which claiming sovereignty. Iraq and Afghanistan were both invaded by us; Afghanistan and Chechnya also invaded by USSR and Russia. That’s just the ones we were involved in.
Somalia, Tibet, Israel, countless in Africa. Then there are all of the internal conflicts engineered by US or USSR during and after the cold war.
-The VDV will beg to differ on who is being ground down.
-if the weapon systems are so ineffective why have the Russian lost >600 tanks and thousands of armored vehicles? It looks like the Russia art of war is what is defective- they started with enormous advantages but have little to show for it so far. They have been outfought and outsmarted by a considerable margin to date. The war is far from over, but it is clear that Russia has severely underperformed.
-Russia depends on the rail lines as much, or more, than Ukraine. The Russian weapons are being transport a great distance as well- but less in the Donbas than in the battle of Kyiv (which BTW Russia lost handily).
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Forget it. He’s rolling.
What have the Ukes lost, in terms of men and equipment, both nominal and as a percentage of their starting forces? If we don’t have even semi-reliable numbers for those, we can’t judge who is “winning” in what is becoming a war of attrition.
Though I do agree that based on pre-war expectations, Russia has way under-performed. But as noted, those expectations were based on garbage intelligence and analysis.
They do when master pulling the strings resides in Washington D.C. (or San Francisco, or Martha’s Vinyard depending on the week).
Plenty of Republicans and their cronies will win too.
Maybe. But I do not have the time or space to list the entire list of rascals. I mainly go with the ones at the top and worse. As a rule the GOP is to incompetent to be very good at the graft nor have the support systems the Democrats do.
Those other conflicts began as internal conflicts, not external between two sovereign nations. Yes, other nations became involved, but the initial conflict–and we are still in the initial conflict stage with respect to Ukraine and Russia–was definitely internal civil strife. Should any outsiders have become involved in the conflicts you’ve listed? Probably not, although once Russia or China became involved, that opened the door for our involvement. Nevertheless, these are vastly different situations.
Not even close to the truth-puppets fail when confronted by superior powers if their master isn’t there (see Afghanistan for example)-Ukraine has risen to the challenge-and vastly over performed. You can repeat untruths over & over-but they don’t become truths. There is no denying that the Ukrainians have been an inspiration to any who love freedom-but, unfortunately, all too many will acquiesce to subservience.
I named several that were between two sovereign nations to begin with, and there were many I didn’t name specifically. Many of those which began as internal conflicts were very likely engineered proxies.
All the situations are vastly different. All of them are also remarkably similar. The main point being that we didn’t and don’t have the world you originally described in which sovereignty and nuclear arms treaties are respected so therefore we need to get involved in Ukraine in order to maintain that order.
They would claim that being “green” means you’re not dependent on anyone!
Well, except for China, where most of that stuff is made, and where most of the raw materials come from.
I agree. Russia is being fought to a near stalemate against a nation, Ukraine, that has 30 percent of the population of Russia.
Still believing the nonsense? Watch Defense Politics Asia. Takes information from both sides, uses Twitter to verify with pictures/videos and geolocating. Plenty of videos of dead Ukrainian troops in fortifications because of shelling.
The Russians haven’t lost more than 600 tanks. You must have seen the one tank 600 times on TikTok. And the death figures for the Ukrainians are 3 or 4 times higher. Rumor has it a Canadian general has been captured at Azovstahl in Mariupol and may go on trial in Moscow. Explains why the Ukrainians kept sending in helicopters that kept getting shot down.
Russia does rely on rail lines. They are also electric. Ukraine is not immobilizing the Russian rail lines. Russia is immobilizing the Ukrainian rail lines.
605 photo verified tank losses (obviously more losses than that since they only count photo verified losses). See:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
– the Russians seem “accident prone” including their railroads:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-rail-bridge-attack-ukraine-border
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/26/fuel-and-ammo-depots-keep-blowing-up-in-russia-ukraines-ballistic-missiles-might-be-why/?sh=446af7ef46c5
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/mystery-fires-sensitive-facilities-compound-russias-war-challenge/
not to mention the “accident” on the Russian ship the Moskva- boy are they accident prone!
addendum- it goes w/o saying that Putin’s plan to split/ weaken NATO has completely backfired- not only has Germany committed to increasing their defense expenditure ps by $100 billion but the US has given assurances to new nations that apply to NATO that the US will defend them while their application is processed ( ie Sweden- likely Finland would get similar guarantees) https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521970729788620800
War is an ugly thing but not the ugliest of things. The decayed integrated state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight. Nothing, which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and can only be made free by the exertions of better men than himself.
— John Stuart Mill
The United States 7th Army Training Command is training 50 to 60 Ukrainian troops on the M777 howitzer artillery in Grafenwöhr, Germany.
The United States has now sent 80 percent of its howitzers offered to Ukraine, over 70 artillery batteries.
In a month, expect Ukraine to capture more territory from Putin’s military over the next few weeks.
Nah.