November 3rd Led to February 24th

 

The Russian attack on Ukraine can be traced to the 2020 presidential election. Leaving aside the question of voter fraud, the replacement of Trump by Biden strengthened Russia’s economy. One of the first actions Biden took was to cancel the Keystone pipeline. He also discouraged drilling. Gas and other fossil fuel prices jumped. Russia depends heavily on energy exports so this was a huge cash infusion into its economy.

Biden appointed incompetent people such as Austin who became secretary of defense. When he wasn’t chowing down, he appeared to think that his most crucial issue was to root out conservatives in the defense department. A friend of mine knew a young man who joined the Air Force to work on cyber defense. With the emphasis on transgenders getting surgeries, he’s getting out as soon as his enlistment ends.

Austin also thinks that forcing people who are not at risk from COVID to get a leaky vaccine is critical. When push came to shove in Afghanistan, no one stood up to Biden and said that we should hold Bagram Air Base until the very end. It’s much more secure than Kabul but none of our generals were willing to put their careers on the line on behalf of the safety of our military. And in the debacle we left tens of billions of dollars of weapons behind.

Biden was always a gaffe machine, but by Election Day 2020 he was clearly unfit to be president. He barely campaigned. In his few press conferences since he’s become president, he calls on specific reporters and has the answers written out on 3×5 cards. His recent performance shows a man who is almost comatose.

 

Putin attacked Georgia when Bush was president. He then seized Crimea during Obama’s presidency. Now he’s attacking Ukraine. The only president he appears to have respected was Trump. The people who supported Biden are to blame for this debacle. And the escalation which is being pushed by Bill Kristol and other war hawks is dangerous. It’s good for Raytheon but no so good for Ukraine. We need to encourage de-escalation rather than ramping up the rhetoric.

Published in Foreign Policy
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  1. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):
    Now it is a case of it has been too costly for both sides

    That is a judgement call and it depends on the decision makers to decide what “too costly” means. In a world run by oligarchs, the opinions of the little people don’t seem to matter much.

    I don’t actually think it is much of a judgment call. Russia’s losses in equipment, troops, and prestige are pretty dramatic. Oligarchs may chose to continue, but it still takes billions of dollars and multiple years to replace a Moskva class cruiser. Ukraine will have to spend billions to replace its cities and infrastructure. Also both sides have lost a huge number of absolutely irreplaceable human beings. The opinions of the little people may matter little to the powerful but that doesn’t reduce the butcher’s bill.

    Russia considers the loss of 25 million citizens in WWII to be a great victory. Here in Texas we consider the Alamo a great battle, despite that fact that it was a massacre. It is hard for outsiders to judge the cost and value of fighting. Money-wise, Russia’s national income has risen thanks to high energy and commodity prices, so there is that. Asymmetrical warfare is cheap. Both sides (Axis and Allies) can fund guerilla warfare forever. It really is amazingly inexpensive to fight with Molotov cocktails and rifles, when you have a large supply of people willing to kill and die. Enforcing peace is harder than allowing a civil war to fester. Look around the globe and you will see festering civil wars all over the place. In the long run we are seeing a emerging alignment of ascending countries fighting descending countries. Time is not on our side.

    Russia definitely has the capacity to absorb more losses than the Ukrainians do.  I have read conflicting reporting about which side the long war “favors”.  I am not sure it favors Russia at all, but that is a point in contention and debate.  My point is that by any objective measure Russia is weaker today than it was before this started in a geostrategic sense.   My hope would be that this could be used as leverage to find a way to deescalate this.  Ultimately neither side is going to negotiate unless they don’t believe they can achieve their goals by force.

    • #151
  2. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):

    If Ukraine starts to take territory in the separatist regions it is going to get ugly and world opinion may sour on the Ukrainian cause…

    Russia only controlled about 1/4 or 1/3 of the Donbas area before February 24.

    True and there were reports of atrocities committed by Ukrainians there.  Were they accurate?  Who knows?  The first causality casualty of war is the truth.   Could a Ukrainian force fresh off of Russian Atrocities respond in kind?  You betcha. Humanity is full of flawed people and revenge, cultural and ethnic hatred are all too much a part of that.  My point is if there is a credible report of Ukrainian’s going overboard in the separatist regions world opinion could sour on Ukraine.

    • #152
  3. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Raxxalan (View Comment):
    The first causality of war is the truth.

    Interesting typo.

    • #153
  4. Raxxalan Member
    Raxxalan
    @Raxxalan

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Raxxalan (View Comment):
    The first causality of war is the truth.

    Interesting typo.

    This is what I get for typing to fast in a meeting.  

    • #154
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