Vladophilia

 

From the head of a  think-tank, recent thoughts on Ukraine’s disinclination to be absorbed:

 

This is not an uncommon view, also expressed the other day by Noam Chomsky: it was unwise for Ukraine to resist invasion. If Russia wants your territory, you assume a supine position while gesturing broadly towards everything that was once yours, and is now theirs to control. If Russia is required to kill your people and level your neighborhoods to get what it believes is theirs, that’s on you. 

 

 

Freedom is nice and all that I guess, but economic growth is the true metric of a society’s health. Really, those idiots in the tractors, do they care who the boss is? The tech sector of Ukraine – does it matter if they’re making West-facing consumer products, or working for the FSB? What counts is the end-of-the-year balance sheet. 

Previously from the same account:

 

 

The means by which you add those 44 million are irrelevant. What counts is the world historical accomplishment. 

The population of France in 1940 was 41 million, and I suppose absorbing it into the Reich was a world historical accomplishment, but history doesn’t seem to regard it with any particular affection. On the other hand, France did surrender, and while that made things difficult for the eventual defeat of the militaristic statists in Berlin, France was spared additional physical trauma. Except for the Jews, of course, but (bored continental hand-waving gesture)

 

 

Another earlier sentiment:

 

Men of a certain age of Ricochet: did you find a spring in your step after the invasion? Perhaps a sudden urge to make changes, act boldly? Did you feel a strange charge in the older-dude zeitgeist, as though men around the world about to walk over the border of 70 suddenly felt empowered and revivified?  

Perhaps, because that Putin guy is a strong leader, and cares for his nation, unlike our guys. Granted, he’s presided over the wholesale transfer of wealth from his people to a select group of elites, and the craptacular state of his military suggests that he was either ignorant of the true state of his capabilities or uninterested in the human cost of shoving his shambolic forces into the meat grinder, and hey maybe the Defender of Christendom shouldn’t have lost a purported piece of the True Cross because his flagship wasn’t refitted because they were broke but  the oligarch’s yachts had 5G and Roombas in the master suite. But at least he’s not woke. And it’s ridiculous to think he’s not strong. Just you wait. He’s going to kill a lot of people. 

That’s what leaders do.

 

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  1. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Is surrendering always the worst course of action?  Denmark surrendered to the Germans in 1940 to avoid the destruction of the country and many deaths.  Should they have faught on against hopeless odds? To achieve what?

    Also – whether surrendering is a good idea or not often hinges on who’s doing the surrendering.  Should the Palestinians surrender and accept that Israel is much stronger than them and they should take the deal they can get? Should Ukraine surrender and accept that Russia is much stronger than them and they should take the deal they can get?

    Should Iraq have surrendered when the US invaded it?  How about Afghanistan?

    Surrender in all these cases would save lives and reduce destruction of countries.  But people don’t work that way – not in Ukraine, not in those little breakaway states in Donbass.

    • #31
  2. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Zafar (View Comment):
    Is surrendering always the worst course of action?

    Always? No. But we shouldn’t wish that state of affairs on anyone.  

    • #32
  3. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):
    Is surrendering always the worst course of action?

    Always? No. But we shouldn’t wish that state of affairs on anyone.

    The situation is what it is today – with the wisdom of hindsight, sure, so many things could have been done differently to achieve a different outcome – but since it is what it is, how are we wishing a state of affairs on anybody?

    • #33
  4. DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax)
    @DonG

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    It would have been wiser for Ukraine to remain neutral, and having provoked Russia by siding with the EU and NATO, it probably would have been wiser to capitulate.

    If we are Monday-morning quarterbacking, Ukraine should have sought a mutual defense alliance with the V4 states.    They also should have ramped up international pressure to end the civil war in the Donbas in 2014.  Letting that simmer while taking outside arms and training was not the path to lasting peace.  It would have been wiser to work on enforcement on the Minsk Agreement.  I cannot blame Ukraine for choosing to be the corrupt piggy bank for the DNC, but that too did not put them on the path to peace.  Ukraine was also dependent on the nat.gas pipeline fees from Russia.  That dependence on the easy cash made them vulnerable to economic extortion. 

    • #34
  5. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    It would have been wiser for Ukraine to remain neutral, and having provoked Russia by siding with the EU and NATO, it probably would have been wiser to capitulate.

    If we are Monday-morning quarterbacking, Ukraine should have sought a mutual defense alliance with the V4 states. They also should have ramped up international pressure to end the civil war in the Donbas in 2014. Letting that simmer while taking outside arms and training was not the path to lasting peace. It would have been wiser to work on enforcement on the Minsk Agreement. I cannot blame Ukraine for choosing to be the corrupt piggy bank for the DNC, but that too did not put them on the path to peace. Ukraine was also dependent on the nat.gas pipeline fees from Russia. That dependence on the easy cash made them vulnerable to economic extortion.

    European (self-imposed) dependence on Russian natural gas makes them vulnerable too.

    • #35
  6. DrewInWisconsin, Oik! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oik!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Think tanks are just PR shops for policy. What you really need to figure out is who hired Hanania to say this.

    • #36
  7. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):
    If we are Monday-morning quarterbacking,

    Start with not demoting the language of about a third of the population (map courtesy wiki).  Pretending that any of these diverse countries is a nation state where the vast majority speaks only one language is a recipe for disaster.

    • #37
  8. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Is anyone else thinking that almost 20 years might make a difference?  Especially since that was, what, two Russian invasions ago?

    • #38
  9. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Is anyone else thinking that almost 20 years might make a difference? Especially since that was, what, two Russian invasions ago?

    I’m sure it does, but we’re hindsighting atm.  If the languages used by all people in the country had been dealt with respectfully the Donbass revolts may not have occurred.  (Yes, the little green men were involved, but they were fishing in already troubled waters.  I understand that an external enemy can help social consolidation, but when the external enemy is linked in many ways to 30% of your own population you can see how that might result in more than internal consolidaiton. Right?)

    Numbers wise, the language break down is similar to Sri Lanka.  Which also elevated the majority language at the expense of a 30% minority language, which was also perceived as making that minority second class citizens, which also resulted in a portion of the country declaring independence, and which also resulted in a long lasting and brutally bloody civil war. (The last point isn’t yet proved for Ukraine, but the rest line up.)

    • #39
  10. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Zafar (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):
    If we are Monday-morning quarterbacking,

    Start with not demoting the language of about a third of the population (map courtesy wiki). Pretending that any of these diverse countries is a nation state where the vast majority speaks only one language is a recipe for disaster.

    1)By your logic parts of Texas & California should be ceded to Mexico

    2) language isn’t loyalty

    • #40
  11. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    MiMac (View Comment):

    1)By your logic parts of Texas & California should be ceded to Mexico

    No, by my logic if there’s a critical mass of native born people  in Texas and California who want to use the Spanish language in their interactions with the State then that should be accommodated by Texas and California (and the Federal Government). jmho.

    2) language isn’t loyalty

    You’re right. Being a first class citizen = loyalty.  Language is (just) one way of differentiating between citizens, and telling some of them that they’re more equal than others.

    • #41
  12. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Zafar (View Comment):

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):
    If we are Monday-morning quarterbacking,

    Start with not demoting the language of about a third of the population (map courtesy wiki). Pretending that any of these diverse countries is a nation state where the vast majority speaks only one language is a recipe for disaster.

    A more useful graphic would show the percentage of people who speak each language in each region. 

    And in the Kiev region, there are people like Sergei “Sputnikov” (now a U.S. citizen) who speaks Russian and barely understands Ukrainian. He has been somewhat left behind by the increasing use of Ukrainian in Ukraine, which he notices every time he goes back to visit family.  But he is very much a Ukraine partisan when it comes to conflict with Russia. And there are many like him. Putin has done a lot to create that state of affairs among people in the East.

    • #42
  13. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    The Reticulator (View Comment):
    Putin has done a lot to create that state of affairs among people in the East.

    Couldn’t have done it without Kyiv’s assistance.

    • #43
  14. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Zafar (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):
    Putin has done a lot to create that state of affairs among people in the East.

    Couldn’t have done it without Kyiv’s assistance.

    he doesn’t seem to like their assistance anymore

    • #44
  15. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Zafar (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    1)By your logic parts of Texas & California should be ceded to Mexico

    No, by my logic if there’s a critical mass of native born people in Texas and California who want to use the Spanish language in their interactions with the State then that should be accommodated by Texas and California (and the Federal Government). jmho.

    2) language isn’t loyalty

    You’re right. Being a first class citizen = loyalty. Language is (just) one way of differentiating between citizens, and telling some of them that they’re more equal than others.

    If that critical mass of native-born people aren’t fluent in English that’s another problem.  There’s just no good reason why their desire to use Spanish with the government needs to be respected.

    • #45
  16. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    1)By your logic parts of Texas & California should be ceded to Mexico

    No, by my logic if there’s a critical mass of native born people in Texas and California who want to use the Spanish language in their interactions with the State then that should be accommodated by Texas and California (and the Federal Government). jmho.

    2) language isn’t loyalty

    You’re right. Being a first class citizen = loyalty. Language is (just) one way of differentiating between citizens, and telling some of them that they’re more equal than others.

    If that critical mass of native-born people aren’t fluent in English that’s another problem. There’s just no good reason why their desire to use Spanish with the government needs to be respected.

    The State’s rights are referred from the people, they aren’t intrinsic to the State.  Why are these (hypothetical) citizens’ wishes regarding language of less worth than yours?

    • #46
  17. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    1)By your logic parts of Texas & California should be ceded to Mexico

    No, by my logic if there’s a critical mass of native born people in Texas and California who want to use the Spanish language in their interactions with the State then that should be accommodated by Texas and California (and the Federal Government). jmho.

    2) language isn’t loyalty

    You’re right. Being a first class citizen = loyalty. Language is (just) one way of differentiating between citizens, and telling some of them that they’re more equal than others.

    If that critical mass of native-born people aren’t fluent in English that’s another problem. There’s just no good reason why their desire to use Spanish with the government needs to be respected.

    The State’s rights are referred from the people, they aren’t intrinsic to the State. Why are these (hypothetical) citizens’ wishes regarding language of less worth than yours?

    How about, if they ever become the majority, they can have their way?

    Otherwise, just the ability to avoid language confusion is worth it.  It’s too easy for various documents to mean not quite the same thing between languages, even if expertly translated.

    Or would you like to claim that you could re-write the Constitution in Spanish and it would have the same meanings?  Language translation is rarely if ever just a matter of replacing one word with another that means exactly the same thing.

    • #47
  18. Eustace C. Scrubb Member
    Eustace C. Scrubb
    @EustaceCScrubb

    I see at Twitter that Richard Hanania has a new book out. He endorses this critique of his work:

    “Very thorough review of my book by the North Korea scholar @andreilankov in the journal Russia in Global Affairs.”

    All the best independent thinkers are found in North Korea, you know.

    • #48
  19. Eustace C. Scrubb Member
    Eustace C. Scrubb
    @EustaceCScrubb

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    It would have been wiser for Ukraine to remain neutral, and having provoked Russia by siding with the EU and NATO, it probably would have been wiser to capitulate.

    Good point. That was a quite short skirt she was wearing. Obviously she deserved what was coming to her. She should have just lain back and thought of England.

    Wait, we’re not talking about a woman who was raped? Sorry Jerry, that was an honest mistake on my part. I could swear that’s what you were talking about.

    Sadly, this is also about women literally being raped.

    • #49
  20. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Zafar (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):
    Putin has done a lot to create that state of affairs among people in the East.

    Couldn’t have done it without Kyiv’s assistance.

    Well, not if Kyiv was as brutal and oppressive as he is. 

    • #50
  21. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Eustace C. Scrubb (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    It would have been wiser for Ukraine to remain neutral, and having provoked Russia by siding with the EU and NATO, it probably would have been wiser to capitulate.

    Good point. That was a quite short skirt she was wearing. Obviously she deserved what was coming to her. She should have just lain back and thought of England.

    Wait, we’re not talking about a woman who was raped? Sorry Jerry, that was an honest mistake on my part. I could swear that’s what you were talking about.

    Sadly, this is also about women literally being raped.

    An excellent point, one for which the Soviet and now the Russian army is well known.

    • #51
  22. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    It would have been wiser for Ukraine to remain neutral, and having provoked Russia by siding with the EU and NATO, it probably would have been wiser to capitulate.

    If we are Monday-morning quarterbacking, Ukraine should have sought a mutual defense alliance with the V4 states. They also should have ramped up international pressure to end the civil war in the Donbas in 2014. Letting that simmer while taking outside arms and training was not the path to lasting peace. It would have been wiser to work on enforcement on the Minsk Agreement. I cannot blame Ukraine for choosing to be the corrupt piggy bank for the DNC, but that too did not put them on the path to peace. Ukraine was also dependent on the nat.gas pipeline fees from Russia. That dependence on the easy cash made them vulnerable to economic extortion.

    “Work on enforcement?”  How do you do that. Which provisions of the Minsk agreement would you have wanted them to work on? 

    By the way, I’m working on enforcing the laws that restrict the illegal activities of the FBI. Should I put all other activities aside while I do that?  

    • #52
  23. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Eustace C. Scrubb (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    It would have been wiser for Ukraine to remain neutral, and having provoked Russia by siding with the EU and NATO, it probably would have been wiser to capitulate.

    Good point. That was a quite short skirt she was wearing. Obviously she deserved what was coming to her. She should have just lain back and thought of England.

    Wait, we’re not talking about a woman who was raped? Sorry Jerry, that was an honest mistake on my part. I could swear that’s what you were talking about.

    Sadly, this is also about women literally being raped.

    An excellent point, one for which the Soviet and now the Russian army is well known.

    The UN “peacekeepers” might be even worse.

    • #53
  24. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    The State’s rights are referred from the people, they aren’t intrinsic to the State. Why are these (hypothetical) citizens’ wishes regarding language of less worth than yours?

    How about, if they ever become the majority, they can have their way?

    Said the Sinhalas to the Tamils and then…

    The point is not that a majority can enforce its will in a way that disadvantages minorities, obviously it can, the point is that it is not wise to do so, it damages the polity.

    Otherwise, just the ability to avoid language confusion is worth it. It’s too easy for various documents to mean not quite the same thing between languages, even if expertly translated.

    How does Switzerland manage, I wonder?

    Or would you like to claim that you could re-write the Constitution in Spanish and it would have the same meanings? Language translation is rarely if ever just a matter of replacing one word with another that means exactly the same thing.

    https://constitutioncenter.org/learn/educational-resources/historical-documents/the-constitution-of-the-united-states-html-en-espanol

     

    • #54
  25. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White Male
    @MiffedWhiteMale

    Zafar (View Comment):
    Should the Palestinians surrender and accept that Israel is much stronger than them and they should take the deal they can get?

    Given that the Palestinians are the aggressors in the conflict, yes.

     

    • #55
  26. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    There have always been those who believe that death is worse than subjugation. I’m not one of those, and I don’t have much respect for those who share that view. If I believed that Ukraine were the aggressor in this conflict I might be critical of her decision to continue to fight. But I don’t believe that, and so I’ll voice my support for the Ukrainians who choose to fight against a foreign invader.

    There are reasons to argue against war, but “people will die defending their country” is not one of them.

    • #56
  27. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):
    Should the Palestinians surrender and accept that Israel is much stronger than them and they should take the deal they can get?

    Given that the Palestinians are the aggressors in the conflict, yes.

     

    They don’t see it that way, but iyho should surrendering or not be function of whether one side is right or not, or whether one side is too weak to win militarily or not?

    • #57
  28. Henry Racette Member
    Henry Racette
    @HenryRacette

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):
    Should the Palestinians surrender and accept that Israel is much stronger than them and they should take the deal they can get?

    Given that the Palestinians are the aggressors in the conflict, yes.

    They don’t see it that way, but iyho should surrendering or not be function of whether one side is right or not, or whether one side is too weak to win militarily or not?

    I don’t think the Israel/Palestine situation is a very good analogue for what is going on between Russia and Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine; Ukraine is defending itself from a foreign aggressor bent on absorbing it. That seems pretty clear-cut.

    If Ukraine had spent the last 30 years lobbing missiles into Russia and blowing up busses on the streets of Moscow, repeatedly declaring that Russia was an illegitimate state and should be obliterated, perhaps the analogy would make more sense.

    • #58
  29. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western Chauvinist
    @WesternChauvinist

    Zafar sounds a bit like a Catholic just war theorist, which I can’t entirely disagree with (because it would be against my religion), but it’s a fraught position to be in.

    Principles of just war theory:

    1. having just cause
    2. being a last resort
    3. being declared by a proper authority
    4. possessing right intention
    5. having a reasonable chance of success
    6. end being proportional to the means used.

    It’s number 5 that causes the most anxiety, since many wars seem hopeless not long before they’re won (American Revolution, for one) and predicting the outcome of any conflict is almost impossible. But even defensive wars like Ukraine’s have the difficult moral calculus of deciding how many deaths, how many rapes, and how much destruction to incur before suing for peace. And even though calculus was my favorite subject in school, I’m glad I’m not the one to have to figure it out for Ukraine. 

    • #59
  30. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    I don’t think the Israel/Palestine situation is a very good analogue for what is going on between Russia and Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine; Ukraine is defending itself from a foreign aggressor bent on absorbing it. That seems pretty clear-cut.

    But Henry, that’s how Palestinians see the creation of Israel and the State’s actions since then.  Israelis don’t see it that way (and perhaps Russians don’t see it that way either wrt Ukraine) – but without arguing (yet again) the rights and wrongs of Israel/Palestine, or of perspective, my question was more about when to surrender and when not to, based on likelihood of success rather than who’s right and who’s wrong.

    For example, the Azov Regiment is holding out in some steel works in Mariupol.  There is, realistically, no chance of success for them – they’re running out of food and ammunition.  Should they fight to the last man, or should they surrender and save their lives?  I know that some Ukrainian servicemen have surrendered in similar circumstances. 

    If Ukraine had spent the last 30 years lobbing missiles into Russia and blowing up busses on the streets of Moscow, repeatedly declaring that Russia was an illegitimate state and should be obliterated, perhaps the analogy would make more sense.

    I think, as far as Russia is concerned, the war is about a lot more than Ukraine.  And for Ukraine, it’s about more than just Russia – it’s about the possibility of being fully European, in terms of joining the EU/NATO, about their aspirations, however distant – otherwise why would they fight?

    • #60
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