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Manage Your Expectations, GOP Voters
The cake is in the oven and is baking nicely. The cake will serve up a hearty GOP majority in the US House and possibly the US Senate when the election rolls around in almost seven months.
Lots can happen between now and then, of course. But Democrats have shown no proclivity, even interest, in doing anything to soften the coming blow, with weakness abroad, an open southern border, and raging inflation at home “baked in” to voters’ equation. Democrats seem content to lead with their chins. Maybe it’s a “long game” thing, where progressive Democrats think they can purge their non-woke brethren this fall and, while a minority in the 118th Congress, entice voters to pine for their socialist schemes as a harsh and angry GOP majority overplays their “authoritarian” hand.
Perhaps Democrats dream that AOC, who turns the constitutionally required 35 years of age on October 13, 2024, to qualify as President before the Fall election, will ascend from the hearts of Americans to the Capitol’s west front on January 20, 2025. Dr. Jill Biden will guide her doddering husband to their seats to facilitate the transfer of “the football” to the former Brooklyn bartender.
Imagine the day. Millions of Americans on the mall swoon in affection and admiration as she enthusiastically takes the stage in her white pantsuit on an unusually pleasant and cloudless winter day. The traditional 21-gun salute is replaced by the release of 195 doves – one for each country – as a loving gesture of peace to an unsettled world. A Boston University graduate with an Economics degree (cum laude!), gasps are heard as she thrusts her left hand skyward while placing her right hand on a copy of Das Kapital. As a gesture of solidarity with the Chinese people, a copy of the Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-Tung is stacked on top of Karl Marx’s book. Eschewing “so help me God,” which is not included in the constitutionally-prescribed the presidential oath, she points to the fawning crowd and laughs nervously and uncontrollably as they breathlessly await the first words of her historic inaugural speech. . .
Back to reality. Whew.
Let’s set the table, courtesy of preeminent political campaign analyst Amy Walter at the legendary Cook Political Report, founded by my friend Charlie Cook.
Currently, RealClear Politics shows Republicans ahead by 3.6 points in the generic ballot tracker. If that holds up through Election Day, it will represent a 6.6 percent positive shift to Republicans from 2020 (Democrats won the national House vote by 3.1 points in 2020).
So, what would a 6.6 point shift to the right look like? At a very crude level, we could say that it would shift the 2020 vote margin in every CD, about 7 points more Republican. So, for example, a district that Biden carried 52 percent to 45 percent (+7) would become a jump ball (50-50) in 2022. Or, a better way to think of it is that any district that Biden carried by less than 7 points would be in danger of flipping to the GOP.
That would suggest that scores of Democratic seats are in play for 2022, but hold your horses. Walter further opines that “The good news for Democrats is that (at this point) there are only 21 districts where Biden’s margin was fewer than seven points. Even if we expand that universe to include districts Biden carried by 8-10 points, that universe of potentially vulnerable Democratic-held seats expands only slightly.”
Several Republicans in seats won by Biden in 2020 look fairly safe this Fall, including Nebraska’s Don Bacon and suburban Phoenix’s Dave Schweikert. But conversely, only 6 Democrats hold seats won by Trump in 2020. Thanks to redistricting both in 2021 and in previous years, there aren’t that many swing districts anymore. It seems that members of the House are more concerned about their primaries than their general elections.
Of course, the good news for the GOP is that they need only net a gain of 5 seats for Nancy Pelosi to surrender the Speaker’s gavel to GOP leader Kevin McCarthy. No serious political prognosticator is predicting that Democrats will retain their House majority.
Then there’s the 50-50 US Senate, where the GOP has more seats to defend than Democrats. Further, Democrats have opportunities to pick up GOP seats in the swing states of North Carolina (carried twice by Trump) and Pennsylvania. Other open seats or special elections in Alabama, Ohio, and Oklahoma are out of reach to Democrats unless Missouri Republicans nominate scandal-plagued former Governor Eric Greitens. But that looks increasingly unlikely to happen. No GOP incumbent is currently in danger of losing reelection.
Most of the GOP seats are relatively safe. Democratic seats, especially in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and maybe New Hampshire. Some suggest Colorado could be in play. But if the GOP holds all their seats, they only need to pick up one Democrat seat to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader again. In this political environment, the math looks very good for that to happen. GOP polling looks terrific in Georgia and Nevada, for now.
Fast forward to the first Tuesday after the first Monday (likely January 3, 2023). Republicans hold a 16-seat majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the US Senate, keeping all their seats and adding Herschel Walker (GA), Mark Brnovich (AZ), and Adam Laxalt (NV) to the US Senate. Kevin McCarthy is the new Speaker; Mitch McConnell is, again, Senate Majority Leader. Republicans chair every committee of Congress. The freshly re-elected Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley (R-IA) returns to chair the Judiciary Committee. Ohio’s Jim Jordan, the former two-time NCAA champion wrestler, chairs the House Judiciary Committee.
Joe Biden is still President.
What’s likely to happen?
First, rank-and-file GOP expectations will be too high. Even if he delusionally fashions himself as a candidate for reelection, Biden will still hold a veto pen for up to two years, half of his four-year term. His Cabinet and key White House praetorian guard will still be in place, controlling the levers of foreign policy, national defense, and federal regulations.
Channeling Barack Obama, Biden will suddenly threaten to implement “his” agenda via pen and phone. His southern border policies will still be in place as millions more flood the border with help from Mexican drug cartels, “coyotes,” and pro-immigration activists like Pueblo Sin Fronteras, among others, in the US.
Republicans will use their new subpoena power to hold investigations and hearings. Recalcitrant administration officials will refuse to cooperate with Republicans and leak to friendly reporters at the Washington Post, New York Times, and friendly broadcast outlets to discredit and marginalize official GOP inquiries. They’ll dare Congress to vote to hold them in contempt, as they did to no effect with former Attorney General Eric Holder. Desperate Republicans will toy with impeachment proceedings over Joe Biden’s financial connections, despite stonewalling and gaslighting from the Department of Justice. Any impeachment attempts will be derided by the media and fail in the Senate, barring broad public support.
The House will pass bill after bill to follow through on their “commitment to America,” but most of those bills will die in the Senate at the hands of Democratic filibusters. Schumer will keep enough of his troops in line for “partisan” procedural votes.
Senate Republicans have an opportunity to stall Biden’s executive and judicial nominations. Still, Judiciary Committee senior member Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has only opposed two Biden-nominated judges over the past two years (to date). He’s cooperated with Democrats to help confirm more judges during Biden’s first year than were confirmed under Trump. Democrats just need to peel away three Republicans, coupled with their 48 seats, to confirm controversial nominees. Susan Collins (R-ME), Mitt Romney (R-UT), and possibly Lisa Murkowski (if she’s reelected from Alaska, far from certain) will be on the White House’s speed dial.
Sure, Congress will have control of the legislative process. But they must still overcome Senate filibusters and Joe Biden’s veto pen. They can pass their budget and maybe their reconciliation/tax bill, but the latter is subject to that pesky veto. They’ll have to deal with Senate Democrats and the White House. And Congress is likely to be blamed if the government shuts down because funding bills aren’t approved. Facts won’t matter – the mainstream media will take the White House’s side.
At least they can stop Biden and the Democrat’s legislative agenda, and that alone makes it worthwhile. While Congress has veto power over federal regulations – a veto that circumvents a Senate filibuster – but still requires the President’s signature. The votes won’t likely exist to override (it takes a two-thirds vote of both chambers). Democratic efforts to force an unconstitutional federal takeover of elections will fade away. But Republicans will have to elect a President in 2024 to undo the severe damage of weakness abroad and the ravages of inflation and supply chain disruptions at home, and much more.
Some conservatives are already demanding that congressional Republicans “ditch Mitch” McConnell and McCarthy for not being “strong enough” leaders to fight the White House. But that ignores the reality of the leadership positions they hold. The last time a House GOP leader got too far out front of his troops was Newt Gingrich in 1998. How did that work out? Both enjoy the confidence and support of their respective colleagues until they don’t. Circular firing squads rarely work well. Underestimate these leaders at your peril, especially leader McConnell. Without him, now-Attorney General Merrick Garland would be serving on the Supreme Court instead of Neil Gorsuch. Shudder.
Congress will likely go Republican in 2022, but conservatives and Republicans should temper their expectations over what can be accomplished. At least they’ll be able to stop many bad things from happening and, hopefully, bad people from being named to the federal bench or key regulatory positions.
Republicans can have their cake but can’t eat it, too. Manage your expectations.
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Yes.
It is always some excuse.
Let’s live in a Democrat society under democrat hard left policies where kids are murdered because it might motivate child killers to the polls and take away our worthless majority that does nothing and can’t even secure the integrity of an election.
That sums it up nicely.
American politicians aren’t worth spit. A pox on both their houses.
You are so stuck in the 1980s. Have you bothered to look at reliable polling now? I didn’t think so.
It’s also that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. If the GOP runs on social issues rather than running away from them, they win.
Ah, Bush-Republicanism. “Stick to tax cuts, you guys. Ignore the culture war and social issues. We have to preserve the precious status quo or the wine moms will turn on us and the NYTimes will publish harsh editorials.”
When Arizona flops blue, blame John McCain and thirty years of mass, uncontrolled immigration.
Just like many of the folks here I’m not very hopeful that a Republican Congress would be able to do very much (assuming that voters come out in such numbers that it overwhelms Democrat cheating). There is a power that such a Congress would have, though, that no President (or the real handlers, whoever they are) could defeat. If they held firm and just didn’t include funding for various offices and departments, they would force concessions since there’s no way Democrats could put something into a bill versus their absolute power to stop one from becoming law. I’m pessimistic that Republicans would even want to do this, of course, but one can dream.
Why should Congress worry about pleasing the people? If the people voice their displeasure with how things are going , the FBI will jail them and throw away the key.
That’s not so much pessimism as realism based on the last two decades of Republican behavior.
I know who I am going to blame:
Proud Republicans for Biden
I disagree. There is no evidence that that “reversing” Roe v. Wade will change votes or even reduce abortions. I wrote a blog post about that in September. Most abortions occur within 6 weeks, and the Mississippi law allows abortions under 15 weeks. I’m happy to send or post it here if interested (I posted it on Ricochet).
Remember when Obama shut down the government — but targeted things like parks and monuments so that the people were as inconvenienced as possible? For example, not only closing Mount Rushmore, but blocking off the sides of the roads nearby so people couldn’t stop their cars and view it from a distance? If he could have hung a Christo-like curtain over it, he would have.
Assume Biden’s puppet masters would do that exact same thing.
Not that I disagree with your statement: shut it all down. The government is the source of all our problems. (Think about it. Every problem we’re facing as a country is the direct result of government policy. They fix nothing. They break everything.) I’m closing in on the idea that only “American Revolution II” will fix this nation. The Republicans aren’t interested, and it’s only midterms this year anyway; we have nearly three more years of this evil administration to go.
The problem with waiting too long to make a correction is the anger grows until the correction becomes excessively violent.
I was thinking about the differences between conservative revolt and liberal revolt and it’s like a volcanic eruption vs lightening strike.
Liberals burn hot and are rapid and the anger is spent quickly, but it’s more common.
Conservatives’ warnings are imperceptible at first, a low rumbling of seismic shifts, dismissed as normal until it’s too late and it erupts in destructive fury.
I hope so.
@soupguy
You are making an excellent case that the GOP, including all your Senate friends, is solely the not-democrats. More to the point, you are making the point that Congress is mostly irrelevant as branch of government. Does that give you any pride in your work with Congress, or do you feel like how I do about post-COVID-19 public health field.
You wrongly analyzed my post. I did not say or address the issue of defining the GOP. Further, I did not make the point that Congress is irrelevant. I pointed to instances where they are not and clearly said a GOP-controlled Congress would stop a Democratic executive branch agenda, and that was worth it. Reread it, this time with an open mind and without pre-conceived biases.
Lower your expectations.
again, somehow, the Democrats in charge of Congress have more power than the Republicans when they control all three branches.
Strange.
Heck, Democrats get their way even when they’re not in the majority. They know power politics and use it.
I’m sure John Roberts and others would find ways to determine that abolishing just about any federal agency, not just the Department of Education, is somehow “unconstitutional.” As in Animal House, they all have a long-standing tradition of existence.
Mad TV was so good…
@soupguy – What I mean by “not-democrats” is that the main thing they can accomplish is preventing democratic legislation from passing. That’s good, but it is also pretty disappointing, given how successful democrats usually are with legislation when they have power in Congress. More to the point, in 2017 and 2018 the GOP had full control, and we got a tax cut out of Congress and not too much else. Democrats took over the healthcare system when they had the same opportunity.
In the end, you can’t just keep the other guy from scoring. You have to put points on the board yourself.
More to the point, I think that we are in dangerous constitutional ground when Congress has such limited power compared to the Presidency. Something is wrong when the main check on executive power requires the government to shut down. For example, let’s say there is a terrible policy in place by legislation. Right now, the Supreme Court can strike it down, or the President can refuse to enforce it. Congress can attempt to repeal a law or use its review power on a regulation, but that requires either a supermajority or a cooperative president. I’d like to see Congress take authority back for regulatory rulemaking, so the EPA or OSHA or FTC rulemaking groups work for Congress.
The GOP was founded to be abolitionist. The first GOP president delivered. Imagine if he and the GOP had won and they said manage your expectations. We really aren’t going to roll slavery back at all. We just win to prohibit its expansion and then maybe not even that. The GOP today isn’t a real party. It’s a joke. It’s nothing but slogans and talking points about small government, localism, fiscal sanity, strong borders, and no delivery on any of it. Lincoln delivered in one term. GOP politicians have been getting elected since the 1960s on a platform of stopping progressivism and haven’t delivered. It’s a fake party and a broken machine. It is way past time to move on.
What check against the Supreme Court is being employed?
This. So much this.
Congress has abdicated most of its power to the executive branch and is unwilling to take it back.
Whenever I suggest that Congress ought to reform the system so that it has to ratify all law-making done by the administrative branch, and that the items can be lumped or split into batches as seen fit by the administrative agencies and/or Congress, some populist conservative will say, “No, no. No lumping. I want Congress to vote on every line item.”
Sigh. So much for getting a critical mass of people to push for this. May as well get back into the handbasket and enjoy the ride.
We populist conservatives are as bad as Congress. We talk about things in a big way such as to preclude all possibility of action.