An Irish soldier in the Imperial [Russian] service, in a battle against the Turks, shouted to his comrade that he had caught a Tartar. “Bring him along, then,” said his mate. “But he won’t come,” cried Paddy. “Then come along yourself,” said his comrade. “Arrah!” replied Paddy, “I wish I could, but he won’t let me.” — E. Cobham Brewer

It appears two men, on two different continents have caught themselves Tartars. On this continent, Justin Trudeau, through invocation of a public order emergency using the Emergencies Act. In Eurasia, Vladimir Putin by invading Ukraine. Both are now mired in situations they cannot walk away from.

Trudeau apparently triggered a bank run through his declaration, especially when this was accompanied by freezing bank accounts of participants. Ill-considered statements by his political allies led people to believe their accounts would be frozen if they had simply donated to the Freedom Convoy before the public order emergency declaration. This struck many as a punishment for an action committed ex post facto — something legal when it was done, but subsequently outlawed. People began pulling money out of Canadian banks. Apparently in massive number, although this is hard to tell since the Canadian mainstream media is de facto government-run and cannot be trusted.

I suspect this is why he ended the emergency. Without it, bank accounts cannot be arbitrarily frozen at the whim of a government official. Whether the toothpaste can be squeezed back in the tube remains to be seen. What prudent person would keep assets in Canadian banks once they are aware the government has the capability to freeze your money without a court hearing or any oversight? I suspect there will be long-term repercussions to the Canadian economy. If so, simply releasing the Tartar Trudeau caught using a public order emergency by ending the emergency may not be possible. The economic repercussions may not let him.

As for Putin, he had definitely caught a Tartar by invading Ukraine. Given the level of Ukrainian resistance, he cannot hold the Ukraine long-term. He has only 200,000 troops to hold the country — and that apparently is 70 percent of Russia’s army. He may be able to take Kyiv, but he cannot hold it without going scorched-earth. Guerillas will cut his supply lines otherwise.

It may not be possible to successfully go scorched-earth. It will take time. Meanwhile, he has a restive population which he will find hard to control. Plus the longer this goes on the more his Chinese “ally” will become tempted to redeem Chinese lands they feel were stolen from them by the Czar in the 1800s and which are still held by Russia. Additionally, the longer he is mired in Ukraine the more likely it is Sweden and Finland will join NATO and the more NATO will be willing to oppose Russia militarily.

Part of Putin’s problem is the fight so far has revealed the Russian military to be less formidable a force than it was believed to be up until the invasion. They took Crimea effortlessly. They occupied the breakaway Ukrainian provinces with hardly a bump. But faced with real opposition, they are showing their flaws. They lack a sufficient logistical tail and they have no reserves. National leaders worldwide (including in China) are going to start thinking if Russia cannot quickly defeat a corrupt nation like Ukraine, their army is a paper tiger.

This will be fatal to Putin. His success has always been predicated on always being the strong man. Once he fails, he will soon cease to head Russia’s government. So all he can do now is keep trying to take the Tartar with him.