Trump, Ukraine, and Yale. I Mean Me.

 

I’m not defending the shambling non-presence currently haunting the Oval Office, nor “his” administraion.

Putin, like any person (and in the Realist model, nation-states), respond to incentives, positive as well as negative.

Yet Putin has been lining this shot up for years.  I suspect that he may have delayed his plans while Trump was in office.  I certainly think that the installation of our faulty president was the day Putin leaned over and circled a date OH about a year in the future.

I oppose direct defense (boots on ground, airstrikes, etc.) of Ukraine because they are at best in our zone of influence, and perhaps more in our zone of interest (the zones being: control, influence, interest, and non-interest). Aside from philosophical / Constitutional / recent history motivators, I see Ukraine as a bridge too far. I realize that “there were promises made,” and I admit I’m torn about some of that. However, a lot of water has passed under many bridges since then.

I suppose an uncomfortable fact dawning on the world like a furious desert sun banishing the last blessed wisps of fog is this: countries don’t sign agreements — administrations do. This is a change, and not for the better, but it does seem to be true. Westphalia is breaking down. We cannot even get our own government to honor internal promises — protect the border, defend the culture, win our wars. Nobody watching the US government for the last twenty to thirty years should be surprised at holding a costly bag of nothing.

Well, I wonder how this would have unfolded had Trump’s re-election been honored (I see you Jan 6 deniers, and will note that you disagree with that statement. Haven’t forgotten you!)

Presumably, the course of action most of us would have found agreeable would be imposing serious sanctions before things were basically on autopilot (which probably happened four to six months ago, just a guess.) Yet this is the same problem as the one which the Portland terrorists presented to Trump and any other decent arm of government: strike in good time, and it’s too early. Strike too late, and well — it’s too late.

Unacceptable options for me would have been deployments to Ukraine and overt air or SF missions to Ukraine. I’m not sure what I would have thought of a really muscular beefing up of NATO, particularly in Poland. I do think that Poland is a good redline. I should also think that Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are worth an overt effort, but the great big issue for me is this: why should the United States get on a war footing if Europe hasn’t?

EDIT: Barfly reminded me that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are already NATO states.  Time flies!

I don’t know what I think Trump would have done — counterfactuals are difficult, so I won’t be grading responses.

I do think it would have been better than this — just like the Afghanistan pullout.  I’m not saying that the individual conflicts would have gone so much differently — but that we would have acquitted ourselves in a far more respectable manner.  We don’t actually have to go running retarded into every burning building.  That firefighter will never retire.  There’s no dishonor in expecting others to take care of their own damned business.  There is dishonor in assuming responsibility and shirking it, which is one aspect of where we are now.  Yet I’ll share a small story and conclude with the stinger.

The pre-1943 editions of Knight’s Modern Seamanship included a passage about breaking a sailing boat out of irons using an oar.  Knight’s direction was to go ahead and use an oar, and be quick about it, despite the popular sentiment that it is lubberly to use an oar on a sailing vessel.  He said that the lubberly part was getting your boat in irons to begin with, and that a real sailor will use any tool available and suited to the need, so get on with it.

The lubberly part of our shame has been twenty years of “managed” decline and treachery. We won’t pull our honorable chestnuts out of the fire by committing to do stupid things — we’ve seen how America goes to war now, and it sucks. Perhaps, if WWIII is in the offing, we may recover some of the Right Stuff before Poland of NATO is in question. And maybe this isn’t WWIII.

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  1. Jim McConnell Member
    Jim McConnell
    @JimMcConnell

    It’s China’s turn to make a move now that Putin has shown how its done.

    • #1
  2. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    Of course he’s been lining it up for years. Vlad wants the old Soviet Union back; he’s never been about anything else. He moves when the U.S. is weak; he took the Crimea under Obama’s haughty nose. We’re only a year into Biden’s false rule, and another year to go before we can impeach him.

    Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members. 

    Remember Lord Ismay: The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. One out of three isn’t going to be enough.

    • #2
  3. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Of course he’s been lining it up for years. Vlad wants the old Soviet Union back; he’s never been about anything else. He moves when the U.S. is weak; he took the Crimea under Obama’s haughty nose. We’re only a year into Biden’s false rule, and another year to go before we can impeach him.

    Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members.

    Remember Lord Ismay: The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. One out of three isn’t going to be enough.

    Good point — I had forgotten that the Baltics were in.  Was reading a little about Finland today.

    • #3
  4. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    I am sorry to see Ukraine go.  Well not really, it seems a corrupt place that corrupts all that touch it.  Also foolish.  Anybody that expects other to back them in a fight is a fool.  They should have never given up their nukes.  They should have prepared for war being that close to evil.  We will now see them fall.  Just as we will see that NATO and the UN are mainly grift operations.  Reality is about to explain the world to everyone…

    • #4
  5. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Our original problem vis-à-vis Ukraine was getting involved in the deal where they gave up their nukes.

    • #5
  6. Tyrion Lannister Inactive
    Tyrion Lannister
    @TyrionLannister

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    I am sorry to see Ukraine go. Well not really, it seems a corrupt place that corrupts all that touch it. Also foolish. Anybody that expects other to back them in a fight is a fool. They should have never given up their nukes. They should have prepared for war being that close to evil. We will now see them fall. Just as we will see that NATO and the UN are mainly grift operations. Reality is about to explain the world to everyone…

    Well, Ukraine isn’t some little backwater nation- it is nearly a first world country.  We did make defense commitments to them regarding the nukes.  If that was their mistake you can also say it was ours.

    The median age in Ukraine is 41, a large percentage of their population has never lived in a Ukraine with nuclear weapons.  I’m sure the current Ukrainian government regrets that they surrendered the nukes.  I hesitate castigating them for the actions of their government 30 years ago, when many of them weren’t even alive.

    • #6
  7. Stina Inactive
    Stina
    @CM

    BDB: coutries don’t sign agreements — administrations do. 

    This has always been true… it’s why internal civil wars tended to have repercussions on surrounding countries. When monarchs are changing frequently and drastically, the countries become erratic and volatile.

    Our country’s internal politics are going through increasing bifurcation. Just look at polls where, on key and prominent issues, there is a very clear dividing line between the parties. It isn’t that most agree in the middle anymore. And this isn’t just the population doing it.

    So when elections happen every 4 years and the chance of having a drastically different administration happens, the world would be wise to not rely on the US in our current state.

    • #7
  8. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    BDB (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Of course he’s been lining it up for years. Vlad wants the old Soviet Union back; he’s never been about anything else. He moves when the U.S. is weak; he took the Crimea under Obama’s haughty nose. We’re only a year into Biden’s false rule, and another year to go before we can impeach him.

    Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members.

    Remember Lord Ismay: The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. One out of three isn’t going to be enough.

    Good point — I had forgotten that the Baltics were in. Was reading a little about Finland today.

    The Finns put up an excellent fight and seriously bloodied the Russians. The Russians had to beat the Finns with overwhelming mass, but beat them they did.

    The Russians have acted with restraint so far. They could kill Ukrainians by the thousand. But Putin is off his rocker – did you see that curling lip throughout his 50-minute-plus madman speech? He’s full of contempt and anger.  

    • #8
  9. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Barfly (View Comment):

    BDB (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Of course he’s been lining it up for years. Vlad wants the old Soviet Union back; he’s never been about anything else. He moves when the U.S. is weak; he took the Crimea under Obama’s haughty nose. We’re only a year into Biden’s false rule, and another year to go before we can impeach him.

    Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members.

    Remember Lord Ismay: The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. One out of three isn’t going to be enough.

    Good point — I had forgotten that the Baltics were in. Was reading a little about Finland today.

    The Finns put up an excellent fight and seriously bloodied the Russians. The Russians had to beat the Finns with overwhelming mass, but beat them they did.

    The Russians have acted with restraint so far. They could kill Ukrainians by the thousand. But Putin is off his rocker – did you see that curling lip throughout his 50-minute-plus madman speech? He’s full of contempt and anger.

    Madman?  I suspect he is saner than any of us.  His world is much closer to the realities of the world.  

    • #9
  10. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    “Countries don’t sign agreements, administrations do.”  

    And administrations are thickly populated by Ivy League alumni.  

    • #10
  11. OmegaPaladin Moderator
    OmegaPaladin
    @OmegaPaladin

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    BDB (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Of course he’s been lining it up for years. Vlad wants the old Soviet Union back; he’s never been about anything else. He moves when the U.S. is weak; he took the Crimea under Obama’s haughty nose. We’re only a year into Biden’s false rule, and another year to go before we can impeach him.

    Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members.

    Remember Lord Ismay: The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. One out of three isn’t going to be enough.

    Good point — I had forgotten that the Baltics were in. Was reading a little about Finland today.

    The Finns put up an excellent fight and seriously bloodied the Russians. The Russians had to beat the Finns with overwhelming mass, but beat them they did.

    The Russians have acted with restraint so far. They could kill Ukrainians by the thousand. But Putin is off his rocker – did you see that curling lip throughout his 50-minute-plus madman speech? He’s full of contempt and anger.

    Madman? I suspect he is saner than any of us. His world is much closer to the realities of the world.

    Did he expect the Ukrainians to fight for their freedom and independence with this ferocity?  His problem is logistics – he can’t sustain a long war, and he does not seem to be rallying the people to his cause.  He saw American weakness, but failed to consider just how dedicated the Ukrainians would be.  I get that you need to be the prophet of doom and all that, but our enemies are not omniscient unerring deities.

    • #11
  12. Franco Member
    Franco
    @Franco

    BDB:

    I suppose an uncomfortable fact dawning on the world like a furious desert sun banishing the last blessed wisps of fog is this: countries don’t sign agreements — administrations do. This is a change, and not for the better, but it does seem to be true. Westphalia is breaking down. We cannot even get our own government to honor internal promises — protect the border, defend the culture, win our wars. Nobody watching the US government for the last twenty to thirty years should be surprised at holding a costly bag of nothing.

    Well, I wonder how this would have unfolded had Trump’s re-election been honored

    Not to forget our own President has been subsidizing his son’s and his bank accounts laundering money through Ukraine, and may even have run for President to protect himself and his family from exposure of that fact. By the way, doesn’t it seem like running for office is the modern  way to scuttle prosecutions, or at least keep them at bay through the election cycle? Not a good incentivizing function for us citizens.

    As to what would have ‘unfolded” had Trump been in office… Had one person in Afghanistan withdrawal  suffered as much as a nose bleed, and had we not miraculously airlifted every military asset out of the country, it would have been reported as debacle of epic proportions.  It’d be another impeachment, with the Republican Never Trumpers leading the way. Max Boot would have his own show on CNN…

    There’s no way I can fathom how our CIA-addled media would be reporting on this, imagining the same situation (of course with Trump it might not be happening) but I envision this invasion would be framed as Trump encouraging Putin as some kind of quid pro quo, or that Trump couldn’t stop Putin because the KGB had dirt on Trump.

    The corporate media are our undoing. They deserve the  most to blame.

     

     

    • #12
  13. Rōnin Coolidge
    Rōnin
    @Ronin

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    BDB (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Of course he’s been lining it up for years. Vlad wants the old Soviet Union back; he’s never been about anything else. He moves when the U.S. is weak; he took the Crimea under Obama’s haughty nose. We’re only a year into Biden’s false rule, and another year to go before we can impeach him.

    Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members.

    Remember Lord Ismay: The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. One out of three isn’t going to be enough.

    Good point — I had forgotten that the Baltics were in. Was reading a little about Finland today.

    The Finns put up an excellent fight and seriously bloodied the Russians. The Russians had to beat the Finns with overwhelming mass, but beat them they did.

    The Russians have acted with restraint so far. They could kill Ukrainians by the thousand. But Putin is off his rocker – did you see that curling lip throughout his 50-minute-plus madman speech? He’s full of contempt and anger.

    Madman? I suspect he is saner than any of us. His world is much closer to the realities of the world.

    Did he expect the Ukrainians to fight for their freedom and independence with this ferocity? His problem is logistics – he can’t sustain a long war, and he does not seem to be rallying the people to his cause. He saw American weakness, but failed to consider just how dedicated the Ukrainians would be. I get that you need to be the prophet of doom and all that, but our enemies are not omniscient unerring deities.

    “The line between disorder and order lies in logistics…”
    – Sun Tzu

    Vlad saw a window of opportunity open up, and he went for it.  We are all going to find out just how sane or insane that decision was.  Let us hope our “alphabet” defense and intel agencies are working to keep bullets and butter flowing to the Ukrainians to keep Vlad in the field longer.  

    • #13
  14. BDB Inactive
    BDB
    @BDB

    Franco (View Comment):
    By the way, doesn’t it seem like running for office is the modern  way to scuttle prosecutions, or at least keep them at bay through the election cycle?

    Absolutely.  I commented somehwere that this is why Clinton is at least making noise about running.

    • #14
  15. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    I’m still waiting for the other shoe shells to drop. Maybe Vlad really is nuts, or maybe he is to some extent Xi’s catspaw. (I suppose it could be both. That stemwinder he gave put me in mind of Justin’s Dad.)

    I still expect some action in the East. Putin and Xi may not be allies, but they have mutual interests. I think Xi is more interested in the Southern Resource Area than the Northern.

    • #15
  16. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Barfly (View Comment):

    I’m still waiting for the other shoe shells to drop. Maybe Vlad really is nuts, or maybe he is to some extent Xi’s catspaw. (I suppose it could be both. That stemwinder he gave put me in mind of Justin’s Dad.)

    I still expect some action in the East. Putin and Xi may not be allies, but they have mutual interests. I think Xi is more interested in the Southern Resource Area than the Northern.

    But eventually, There Can Be Only One.

    • #16
  17. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    BDB (View Comment):

    Barfly (View Comment):

    Of course he’s been lining it up for years. Vlad wants the old Soviet Union back; he’s never been about anything else. He moves when the U.S. is weak; he took the Crimea under Obama’s haughty nose. We’re only a year into Biden’s false rule, and another year to go before we can impeach him.

    Poland and the Baltic states are NATO members.

    Remember Lord Ismay: The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. One out of three isn’t going to be enough.

    Good point — I had forgotten that the Baltics were in. Was reading a little about Finland today.

    The Finns put up an excellent fight and seriously bloodied the Russians. The Russians had to beat the Finns with overwhelming mass, but beat them they did.

    The Russians have acted with restraint so far. They could kill Ukrainians by the thousand. But Putin is off his rocker – did you see that curling lip throughout his 50-minute-plus madman speech? He’s full of contempt and anger.

    Madman? I suspect he is saner than any of us. His world is much closer to the realities of the world.

    Did he expect the Ukrainians to fight for their freedom and independence with this ferocity? His problem is logistics – he can’t sustain a long war, and he does not seem to be rallying the people to his cause. He saw American weakness, but failed to consider just how dedicated the Ukrainians would be. I get that you need to be the prophet of doom and all that, but our enemies are not omniscient unerring deities.

    Not omniscient unerring deities.  Just not the unthinking madman people are presenting.  I suspect he has a better handle of the situation in his area than we do and his capabilities and will to give than take pain.  I suspect he will get most of what he wants which is a hunk of Ukraine than he will withdraw until it is time for him to take another hunk.  The US will allow, maybe support it as long as our elites and their cronies make money off it.  

    • #17
  18. Doctor Robert Member
    Doctor Robert
    @DoctorRobert

    Tyrion Lannister (View Comment):

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    I am sorry to see Ukraine go. Well not really, it seems a corrupt place that corrupts all that touch it. Also foolish. Anybody that expects other to back them in a fight is a fool. They should have never given up their nukes. They should have prepared for war being that close to evil. We will now see them fall. Just as we will see that NATO and the UN are mainly grift operations. Reality is about to explain the world to everyone…

    Well, Ukraine isn’t some little backwater nation- it is nearly a first world country. We did make defense commitments to them regarding the nukes. If that was their mistake you can also say it was ours.

    The median age in Ukraine is 41, a large percentage of their population has never lived in a Ukraine with nuclear weapons. I’m sure the current Ukrainian government regrets that they surrendered the nukes. I hesitate castigating them for the actions of their government 30 years ago, when many of them weren’t even alive.

    Who remembers which American POTUS blithely assured Ukraine that we would stand behind them for giving up their Nukes?

    • #18
  19. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Doctor Robert (View Comment):

    Tyrion Lannister (View Comment):

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    I am sorry to see Ukraine go. Well not really, it seems a corrupt place that corrupts all that touch it. Also foolish. Anybody that expects other to back them in a fight is a fool. They should have never given up their nukes. They should have prepared for war being that close to evil. We will now see them fall. Just as we will see that NATO and the UN are mainly grift operations. Reality is about to explain the world to everyone…

    Well, Ukraine isn’t some little backwater nation- it is nearly a first world country. We did make defense commitments to them regarding the nukes. If that was their mistake you can also say it was ours.

    The median age in Ukraine is 41, a large percentage of their population has never lived in a Ukraine with nuclear weapons. I’m sure the current Ukrainian government regrets that they surrendered the nukes. I hesitate castigating them for the actions of their government 30 years ago, when many of them weren’t even alive.

    Who remembers which American POTUS blithely assured Ukraine that we would stand behind them for giving up their Nukes?

    I see what you did there.

    • #19
  20. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    “Countries don’t sign agreements, administrations do.”

    And administrations are thickly populated by Ivy League alumni.

    Paperwork, agreements, laws, constitutions are not really worth the paper they are written on.  They can be enforced, twisted, interpreted, ignored as those in power like.

    • #20
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