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Russia Invades Ukraine
In a speech Wednesday night, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation,” followed immediately by troops entering Ukraine and large explosions throughout the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the attack and declared martial law. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called it a “full-scale invasion,” adding, “Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes. This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.”
Putin strenuously warned against international meddling. “To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history,” he said. “All relevant decisions have been taken.”
President Biden issued a statement: “The prayers of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces.” He added that he will consult with the leaders of the G7 on Thursday and promised “severe sanctions.”
Published in General
Very well said, Dr. Robert.
For sure – which is a legitimate concern. I was responding to someone who framed it as a question of moral obligation.
Having said that, I don’t personally have a way to calibrate the risk of escalation. One thing we get zero information about in the press is any sort of strategic analysis. So, for example, one person I trust suggests that the Russian army lacks the size, and Putin lacks the money (although with oil at $100 per barrel he has more money) to have a very expansive ambition. Now maybe China will move against Taiwan while everyone’s eyes are on Ukraine, but China is said to lack the amphibious capacity sufficient to invade the island. And I’m told that Taiwan has the capability to make it very uncomfortable for China should they attack. I have first-hand information on none of this, but the lack of any real strategic analysis in the media leaves me without a solid point of reference for calibrating the risk of a global conflagration.
It’s a legitimate concern, to be sure. I just have no actual data on which to feel urgent in any particular direction.
Here is what the US could do right now:
1: Ban all funds transfers to and from Russia, Russian banks, and Russian nationals. Close off SWIFT and Wires.
2: Impose full Iranian/North Korean-style sanctions: bar all US companies and persons from doing any business with any Russian entities. Ban all flights. Ban all Russian nationals from the US, and push to have them banned with every friendly country.
3: Announce opening all government land to drilling/fracking. Guarantee fast-track approvals (if we do not reject by Date X (like 60-90 days), then it is approved) for all mineral exploration and development in the US. Provide a window where the EPA has no authority, leaving only tort law to protect against damage done. Approve all pipelines on the same basis.
But if we REALLY want to prevent war from spreading, we may need to be willing to escalate, and hit Russia where it hurts: their own pipelines for generating cash. Take out Gazprom’s pipelines, and Russia goes broke, fast. Europe will freeze, but Europe has been going down this path all with its own Earth-worshipping cognizance.
Above all, work to FLANK Putin. Do not engage in Ukraine or with the war effort there. Instead, cut Russia off at the knees. Block/destroy all internet lines. Block all ports and pipelines for goods transfer. Block all financial transactions. Block all the people flow.
This can be done without a single boot on the ground. And it would HURT Russia enough to make them withdraw.
I always wondered what it was like being alive in the late 1930s.
I’m trying to figure this out for myself. I really am asking a question. How does one square that circle?
Most everyone here, when there is a post regarding that kind of behavior, is quick to say that not trying to help is a sign that we are a society in decline. How do we go from there to not-my-problem?
I don’t know and I’m trying to figure that out. You seem to confidently assert a solution I’m asking how you reconcile the two responses.
And you avoided answering.
I’ll take a stab at it:
If the answers to all questions are yes, consider intervening. Otherwise call the cops.
Putin doesn’t want his concerns addressed. He wants Ukraine. Period Full stop. Everything else is misdirection. What does he want next? Read Alexandr Dugin.
Ukraine isn’t even a consistent supporter of their sovereignty. Who are they? Heritage Russians or the US’s puppets? Seems to be they can’t figure it out amongst themselves.
As a FYI …
I would HIGHLY recommend setting aside some actual cash … greenback dollars. I can’t imagine that Putin will acquiesce to financial and economic sanctions without a response of some kind. It wouldn’t surprise me if banks, ATMs, e-payment processing systems suffered some “difficulties” or “outages” making your cards useless for some period of time.
So who exactly are “the cops” in this Russia/Ukraine situation?
Ha ha ha! The entire US position on Russia is “blow the to kingdom come!” Diplomatic de-escalation is tantamount to treason and being Russia’s puppet.
Are you a traitor?
Genuine question: what is the mechanism by which sanctions on Russia generally will cause Putin to change his mind (or have his mind changed)? Are we expecting a revolt of the army? Uprisings in the street? It’s not like the senior Kremlin figures haven’t been comprehensively sanctioned already: how can their day-to-day lives be significantly degraded?
Same question for Iraq and China…
First, the social obligations of the individual are vastly different than the collective’s (which a country is a collective).
While we think an individual should intervene if witnessing injustice, in whatever capacity they can, it is still the individual’s choice on how much risk is assumed on himself.
The collective isn’t assuming risk on one individual. They are assuming risk on the entire collective. And the head of the collective makes the decision and the rest are more or less forced to go along.
The presence of choice removed from the individual while risk is still assumed by the individual is what sets the collective intervention apart from the individual intervention.
You’ll have to ask Ekosj that. It’s his analogy; I’m just filling out the thought process I’d use if I came upon violence in the street, which was his question.
Nonsense- they have upheld their sovereignty thru 8 years of proxy wars with the Russians so far and they are fighting right now.
Proxy wars? And who fought those for them?
And how involved is the US in those proxies and their “sovereign” decisions?
No, but if you think that this is American’s fault, you are.
I’m not saying that you believe that, but blaming America for this is accepting a pro-Russian narrative.
Don’t be like Sohrab Ahmari.
No, you’re the one saying not to intervene in favor of calling someone else [the cops] to handle it. So who are you calling?
Really? It’s Biden’s fault. I’m a traitor now! Come collect me.
Is this Nato’s fault?
NATO attempting to break an agreement, whether the agreement was rightly or wrongly decided, is going to cause international problems.
That is what they did, right?
If they wanted to break the agreement, maybe they should have done so while Russia was competing with the US for oil exports and forced the US into an agreement not to scale back on oil production.
Sigh. I’m answering Eskoj’s query. I’ll even quote it for you:
If one can’t identify who “the cops” when applying this analogy to an international conflict, perhaps it’s because the analogy isn’t a very good one. It’s also not my analogy.
I’m not engaging further on this point.
Can’t come up with a good answer, huh?
NATO had better very quickly start thinking about Poland and Lithuania. The Russian oblast of Kaliningrad sits on the coast and is surrounded on its land-side by Poland and Lithuania. Putin’s historical manifesto in July about Ukraine points to The historic enmity between Russia and the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth. Putin also blames Poland for starting WW2. So I’d expect to start hearing Putin bemoaning the fate of the cutoff Russians of Kaliningrad and the need to unite them with their brethren.
You are attacking the wrong person.
There are no global police because there is no global authority. And heaven help us if there ever is one aside from the Lord God Almighty.
One look at a map of eastern Europe will answer the question. Even a moderate knowledge of WW I & WW II, and the Soviet Union will answer the question. You may be right – maybe it isn’t “our problem.” It’s the entire free world’s problem, and it’s a doozy. I’m sure that our president will propose a conference in historic Munich, to be hosted by our fine VP, to address the problem.
But, please, people, really! You have taken your eye off the ball. Remember – at least we got rid of Trump!