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Biden’s Delusions Put Us in Danger: Negotiating with Iran
Not only has our reputation been damaged trying to re-negotiate the JCPOA, and is surely compromising our safety in relation to China and Russia as they witness this debacle, I can’t figure out the real reason we are bothering to try to resurrect the Iran agreement. From my perspective, it is a fool’s errand and could put our own country in danger. Here’s the latest report on the facts of the deal from the details I could collect.
It is quite clear that Iran has no intention of negotiating anything. They only want to put the deal on the table as a way to remove all sanctions in order to save their economy, and they insist that the U.S. should be prohibited from attending the negotiation meetings in Vienna. Our response has been feckless, offering up idle threats that no one fears. Jen Psaki made the following threat on December 9:
If diplomacy cannot get on track soon and if Iran’s nuclear program continues to accelerate, then we will have no choice but to take additional measures to further restrict Iran’s revenue-producing sectors.
And U.S. State Department representative Ned Price offered this ominous remark:
Asked if Iran might be playing for time in the talks and seeking to exploit U.S. weakness, he told reporters: ‘I can assure you that, if the Iranian regime suspects the United States of weakness, they will be sorely surprised.’
I’m sure that based on these two comments, the Iranians are quaking in their boots.
Of course, any statements by the U.S. are made second-hand to reporters, since the U.S. is not participating directly in discussions; the claim is that Trump removed us from the agreement and we can’t participate, but if the U.S. is sincere about a negotiation, passing notes back and forth appears ineffectual.
Given the absurd requirements of the original 2015 agreement, which everyone ignored, the Iran government has nothing to fear. Every violation of the agreement which became public was brushed aside, and the Iranians continued to enrich their uranium, even purchasing and powering up additional centrifuges.
So, if there is any agreement that is reached, it will be a disaster in the making. First, the Biden administration has proposed a new sunset period:
The Biden administration has suggested a new sunset period of 25 years—assuming the Iranian regime does not lower it to 10 or 5 years. This will allow the Islamic Republic to resume enriching uranium at any level they desire, spin as many advanced centrifuges as they want, make its reactors fully operational, build new heavy water reactors, produce as much fuel as they desire for the reactors, and maintain higher uranium enrichment capability with no restriction after the period of the agreement.
They only need to agree to stop enriching uranium. And that is not going to happen.
The U.S. will likely lift all the sanctions on the first day of the agreement, just as Obama did. No proof of compliance will be required.
* * * *
At this point we could just throw up our hands and say, it’s not our problem; let the Middle Eastern countries take on Iran. But the Iranians are not just a threat to their neighbors, including Israel: they are a threat to us.
One reason is that Biden has not mentioned their ICBMs:
A report by Iran’s. . . Afkar News. . . stated: ‘The same type of ballistic missile technology used to launch the satellite could carry nuclear, chemical or even biological weapons to wipe Israel off the map, hit US bases and allies in the region and US facilities, target NATO even in the far west of Europe.’
The report also boasted about the damage the Iranian regime could inflict on the US: ‘By sending a military satellite into space, Iran now has shown that it can target all American territory; the Iranian parliament had previously warned that an electromagnetic nuclear attack on the United States would likely kill 90 percent of Americans.’
It’s difficult to know how legitimate these threats actually are.
This type of agreement with Iran will only further destabilize the region, as their neighbors realize how vulnerable they will be to Iran’s terror agenda and even potential invasion. An upset in the region can’t help but affect the United States.
Once sanctions are dropped and Iran’s economy begins to recover, they will likely promote more terrorist activities all over the world. Our allies will blame us for empowering Iran—and their anger will be justified.
* * * *
Given all the downsides for an agreement, can anyone explain the reasons why the U.S. is pursuing a renewed JCPOA. What do we have to gain? If the Biden Administration comes to its senses, is there a sensible approach they can use?
Published in Foreign Policy
Nothing the Biden administration has been doing makes any sense from a national security, national integrity, and national interest perspective. They promote national infrastructure building, but then redefine “infrastructure” to be any form a government program they want to fund. It can only be understand as a form of insanity or a hubris bordering on insanity that the “deserving” in this country will fair just fine in a New (and anti-semitic) World Order. The strategy can only be understood in the context of who wants Iran to be buying and who is selling to Iran. Doesn’t make it a good strategy, only explains who is willing to sell out their country and world security to line their pockets.
So you think their reasoning is economic in a way that the Biden elite will benefit? This is all too bizarre for me to take in!
You’ve got insanity, greed, and insanely greedy. That’s all I can see.
Somebody needs his med levels checked, and I don’t mean Joe this time.
Very interesting post. I really lost the plot as to what is going on with the “Iran Deal” stuff but it seems to me at best either Iran already had the bomb or could develop it so rapidly that Obama (charitably) bought us some time or (uncharitably) just made it so Iran would announce as much when someone else was president. My suspicions as to which aside my feelings are that the Biden admin isn’t ready to deal with Iran the way they need to be dealt with and they actually don’t have anywhere near the bargaining power they (more importantly we) need to recreate the same situations where Obama got some time (for someone).
Once the EU, mainly through Germany, started selling Airbus planes to Iran I got the sense it was all over. In theory we could excercise some oversight over Boeing but once the EU got in it was over (and Boeing would and in a weird way probably should be allowed to sell to them if Germany is selling, given that we are already sending tax dollars to both Iran and Boeing, but the deal never should have happened in the first place).
Actually I never understood the concept of “buying time.” Buying time for what? I think there was something else going on with Obama, too. I completely agree with your assessment of the Biden administration. I cringe every time I hear one of them talk about the deal with Iran.
It seems to me that Israel has been ceded the responsibility for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program (and they’ve been doing a pretty good job so far, with clandestine operations and assassinations). Strangely, there is evidence that some of the Gulf Muslim nations are now cooperating with Israel to restrain Iran’s ability to make mischief locally.
That was true, Jim, with the Abraham Accords; several Arab countries were starting relationships with Israel. But the Biden administration has been lukewarm, even seeming to discourage Israel’s working with those other countries. I think the U.S. wants Iran to lead the region, and everyone should kowtow to them. Israel has certainly stepped in to damage some of their apparent nuclear facilities, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the U.S. speak out against those efforts, particularly if they come up with some kind of bizarre deal with Iran.
As far as I see it, if Iran could’ve very quickly made a nuclear weapon when Obama was negotiating the Iran deal, every year Iran doesn’t credibly announce as much gives the world a year of semi-normalness where Iran doesn’t have “the bomb”, which, to me, is still a net benefit, even if it costs us money and some integration into the world system.
I assume Iran was/is cheating, and also Obama was probably lying. But I don’t know where the line on that cheating is in relation to “a huge national security problem for the non homicidal world” so I can consider he bought us some time to try and muddle through this issue (which has been hard for all presidents). It’s possible Iran really didn’t have the technology or materials but I don’t think that’s regarded as likely. But I stopped paying close attention. I’m sure now they do, or at least they are integrated into some of our ally’s (“allys’s) economy well enough that they will feel emboldened to speed their plans up.
The “for what” is hard question for me. My conspiracy theory is that Obama would rather Iran be a dominant regional power so he could use that as an excuse to get out of the middle east sooner (didn’t really happen that way) and also make it less likely the US would intervene as much in that region (we hit Soleimani but let’s see).
I’ve thought of this reason, too, and it could still be possible. But regarding giving us time, I’m not comforted by thinking that Iran had 5, 10 or 15 years, and am especially disturbed that I believe that everyone knew they weren’t going to comply with any part of the agreement. They lied. We knew they would lie. So to me, the whole thing was a meaningless exercise.
I’m not even a foreign policy adjacent person but I really don’t know what one does. Joe Biden is unpopular and Congress is very close to changing partisan hands. Iran is certainly thinking about that as they plan.
I’m sure you’re right! It’d be interesting to speculate on how a change in Congress might affect Iran. But unfortunately we have a very long wait–even two years seems forever!
You’ve said a lot right there.
They’re only Jews.
And then there’s this:
I think we will find that whatever the Biden Administration does in the Middle East, it will not be to Israel’s advantage. That seems to be the Democrat’s strategy since, at least, the Obama administration.
It certainly wasn’t a meaningless exercise from Iran’s point of view. I gave them more time to develop their nuclear program.
They think we’re deserting them. With Biden, we probably are.
We have explicitly and implicitly done so. Everybody knows this except, in large, the American people, who belive the lying government and the lying press.
Nothing says I don’t care about you like four billion (borrowed) dollars a year.
Great post, Susan.
I think that if you scratch around long enough, you’ll find Wendy Sherman’s fingerprints on this as she was the “lead negotiator” on the original Iran nuclear deal.
Sherman is a typical bottom-feeder in the Washington establishment. She worked in the Clinton and Obama administrations before landing her current position with Biden. Interestingly enough, she started out as a social worker and even served as president of Fannie Mae; yes, that Fannie Mae.
As the below link shows she is a all-purpose appeaser; there are very few dictators in the world that she will not suck up to.
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-functionally-pro-china-biden-administration/
Not following. ?
What if that is the actual definition of ‘foreign policy’?
From my perspective, Republican realpolitik would involve playing Iran against everyone else in the region while protecting Israel. Perhaps Democrat realpolitik is playing Iran against everyone else in the region and also against Israel.
My unlikely hope is that by signaling that we are backing off, those who we have been supporting will start doing the job that is more their responsibility than ours (the Arab world is what I am referring to).
But this is probably just garden variety feckless treachery or perhaps treacherous fecklessness.
I figure Obama was a domestic enemy and was on the side of the Iranians. It happens.
Now that is a terrifying thought–especially since you might have a point!
Along with his warm personal friend, Valerie Jarrett; an alumnus of Shiraz Tech.
The real problem is not that Iran is trying to get a deal, it’s that we no longer have politicians that think laws need to be followed. There is probably zero chance that a deal with Iran will get 2/3 approval from the Senate. Presidents making side deals with foreign countries of that level of importance is a very bad habit.