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President Neville Biden
Does President Joe Biden’s team not see that they are doing exactly what Neville Chamberlain did 83 years ago? They are reported to be ready to hand over territory of Ukraine, a secondary ally, to Russia President Vladimir Putin, a weak international thug. But doing so will show the hollowness of the Western alliance.
https://dailycaller.com/2021/12/09/biden-russia-ukraine-putin/
Obviously, we will not go to war with Russia over Ukraine. But Russia also cannot afford to go to war with the West over Ukraine because it would lose and because it would do enormous damage to its economy. It is willing to fight Ukraine but not to stumble into a war with NATO. Neither side knows for sure what action will trigger war, but each side bluffs about how tough it will be, so each has to be careful not to take a step that would be the war trigger. Neither knows where the other’s line is, so it is possible to stumble into a war when neither side wants it. So there is a lot that the U.S. and its allies can do to deter Russia short of war because they don’t want war with us either.
But Biden has given up the bluff already. He has made it clear that we will not fight if Russia takes some Ukrainian territory. Russia can guess that the action that would trigger war is actually less than what we have already revealed. So it can demand even more.
Putin is a master chess player. He has a weak hand, although not as weak as it was a decade ago. He’s already gotten away with taking Crimea and forcing Donetsk and Luhansk into an ambiguous status. Taking another big chunk or all of Ukraine will make him a major threat and embolden him further. This is the time to stop him, before he becomes too powerful. Smart chess playing by the U.S. administration could stop him without war.
Dementia Joe, or whoever is actually calling the shots, has already given up the game. Instead of at Munich, the appeasement happened on Zoom.
Published in Foreign Policy
I’m reminded of Obama telling Republicans “Don’t call my bluff.”
Uh, . . . you just told everyone you’re bluffing. The only response is to call.
But who is our Churchill or even our Cooper?
What suckers the Ukrainians were to believe our commitments in the Budapest Accords when they turned over their nukes to Russia.
Taiwan take note.
Popular argument from 1909 to 1914.
But Neville went home and built Spitfires. Lots of Spitfires.
Joe might have benefited from reading Art of the Deal. . .
Nah, Democrats aren’t interested in winning. It would be enraging how stupid the “no boots on the ground” hand tipping is (both Obama and Biden did it), until you realize it’s all part of the slow motion destruction of the US. Best to keep your powder dry.
Copy. In distinction, I mean if we can’t hit them with a rock from space, I don’t care.
And Russia built a lot of tanks. If Germany had invaded Russia a year earlier they probably would have won it all.
Kompromat. Biden is compromised and will do whatever Putin or Xi ask.
A note on Taiwan. China will take that trough political means, not militarily. China controls the opposition political party and they have invest money all over the place. Eventually, that party will win elections and just like how the Commie Dems sold out America without a shot, Taiwan will be subsumed without bullets.
6 weeks earlier would probably have done it. Get to Moscow before the snow starts.
God put his finger o the scale: Barbarossa delayed at least six weeks by record rainfall.
It would win easily.
Who would stop it?
How would their economy be enormously damaged? Particularly after mysterious explosions take out all the North Sea drilling platforms, the Alaska Pipeline, and much of Saudi Arabia’s oil production.
Mussolini’s fault.
Not senile. Not senile at all.
The man in charge of the Wests Defense…..
No way in Hell am I going to tiktok.
Neither the Budapest Memoranda nor the US-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership commit the United States to deploy military forces for the defense of Ukraine.
The Budapest Memoranda only commit the signatories (the US, the UK, and Russia) to “seek immediate Security Council action” in the event that Ukraine “should become a victim of an act of aggression”, which is hilariously toothless if the aggressor happens to have a Security Council veto.
Putin may feel compelled to do something dangerous and stupid simply because the USA might never again be this pathetic. Biden Harris, Blinken in charge of policy?! Gen. Miley in charge of bureaucratic response to failure? It is as if there were a bright green light flashing for every evil-doer on the planet. Hell, we don’t even stop thieves, arsonists, and muggers anymore. It matters not that the USA has vastly more economic and military power than Putin if that power is in the hands of people lacking in intellect, character, and judgment.
Yup. There’s a window of opportunity now that may start to close at least a little bit at the end of 2022 if the mid-terms go badly for Biden.
Russia cannot afford to go to war with the WEST over Ukraine.
But I’m not convinced the Russia would win easily over Ukraine alone. I think Russia would win but not easily. Ukraine has a military that comes out of the Soviet tradition and has units that have been battle-tested in eastern Ukraine. They would also be fighting for their homeland and survival. So Russia would likely win, but it would be a bloody contest, so Putin would prefer to be given control of part of Ukraine.
Agreed – but I think the international environment was very different pre-1914 than in 2021. The major powers in Europe had what they felt were very attractive reasons for going to war in 1914, although these turned out to be disastrous miscalculations. But in 2021, I don’t think either Russia or the US want to fight each other. (They may be willing to fight other countries, but that is a different question.)
Putin wants a cheap foreign victory because he has to keep tamping down internal dissent by showing himself to be the strong lion. He also has a relatively weak economy. But he is a master strategist who knows how to keep his opponents off balance and win cheap victories.
They did not slow Putin down in Donbas and Crimea.
Essentially nonexistent air power.
So penetrated by Russian loyalist and unrepentant communists that they will be combat ineffective.
Could face a two front war with Russian units attacking from the east and Belarussian forces from the north. Kiev is only about 100 road miles from Belarus and 250 from Russia.
What do you think he wants? Recognition of Russian control of Donbas, Crimea and the north bank of the Sea of Azov to establish northern contiguity with Crimea?
I posted this in the podcast thread, but it really belongs here:
This column is a good reminder of how the past two Presidents dealt with Ukraine.
Yeah, sounds familiar:
Which was followed in 1910 or so by a German book on the Right and Duty of Strong Nations to Make War upon Weak Nations or some such.
War comes when the weak or foolish allow it.
Any or all of the items you mention. Plus weakening NATO, installing a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, putting a question mark on NATO’s defense of the Baltic Republics, increase control over the Black Sea, establish a position to threaten Turkey and Belarus more, showing the US to be a paper tiger in eastern Europe. He won’t get all of those things unless he’s incredibly lucky and we’re incredibly stupid (which is not impossible). But he’ll be in a more dominating position when this is over than when it began. And that’s all he cares about.
No
No- the key wasn’t the increased tank production by the USSR in 1940& 1941-it already hand a huge tank force-Russia had the largest tank force in the world for several years-in fact the USSR had more tanks before the Nazi’s invaded than the REST OF THE WORLD COMBINED-about 22,00 tanks vs the Nazis 5,000– Germany was already playing catchup-and soon failing. In no year was Germany out producing the USR in armored vehicles. The Nazis had few “real” tanks when they invaded the USSR-the USSR had more T34s and KV1s than the Nazis had Panzer IIIs & IVs (the Panzer I were useless vs other tanks, Panzer IIs where of limited use vs tanks)- they were greatly aided by what they seized from the Czecks-about 800 useful tanks-almost 20% of the tanks used the invasion-[note to those want to let the Russians get the Ukraine- Russia + Ukraine >> Russia alone, just like Nazi Germany + Czechoslovakia >> Germany].
German Panzer III & IV at outset of Barbarossa, June 1941-about 1,500
USSR T34 and KV1-about 1800 in June 1941 (the T34 & KV1 more heavily armed & armored than the PIII & IV)
Germany panzer II and Czeck tanks June 1941- about 1500
USSR T26 and BT- about 17,000
in 1940-1941 USSR tank production about 9,300 vs Nazi Germany 5,500 (1000 of them from the Czechs!)-
letting Germany absorb the Czechs rather than confronting the Nazis was a huge mistake(actually the Ruhr crisis would have even been better)-getting the Czech armaments industry was a huge bonus for the Nazis
This is a good summary.
I wouldn’t call him a master strategist- he is only out foxing Biden & Obama. Out thinking them is like being the tallest pygmy-you are still not a giant. But, in the land of the blind the one eye man shall be king…
Hacking is the modern technique.