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Projection: Youngkin Defeats McAuliffe in Virginia Governor’s Race (w/ Updates)
Original post (8:37 pm ET): Decision Desk, which has offered the most reliable early calls in the past several election cycles, projects that Republican Glenn Youngkin has defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia’s gubernatorial election. Dave Wasserman, elections guru for the Cook Political Report called the race for Youngkin a few minutes earlier. Henry Olson of the Ethics and Public Policy Center has also called the race. Media organizations are likely to follow soon.
They made the call with 47 percent of the vote in and Youngkin carrying a remarkable 10 percentage point lead. Joe Biden won the commonwealth one year ago by 10 percentage points.
GOP candidates Winsome Sears (Lt. Gov.) and Jason Miyares (A.G.) have earned numbers similar to Youngkin, so both are expected to win.
Update (10:37 p.m. ET): Two full hours after all the leading election gurus called the race, the legacy media still refuses to admit Youngkin won.
Update (10:47 p.m. ET): The Democrats have lost control of Virginia’s House of Delegates.
Update (12:34 a.m. ET): It’s over. Youngkin won.
Published in General
That’s why they didn’t meet the 8 pm early vote counting deadline in Fairfax. They’re going all out to “find” enough votes in Fairfax after all the rest of the votes are counted to put them over the top. A trick as old as time (see Johnson, Lyndon, 1948 Senate primary, Alice, Texas, precinct 13). Pappy Daniels could explain it easily, though such as Brit Hume are “perplexed” and can’t explain what’s happened in Fairfax.
will we ever see a non fraudulent election in America?
Live Chat, please.
Excellent news. The secret sauce is that Glenn Youngkin never, ever appeared with Donald Trump. Youngkin thanked Trump for his endorsement, but kept his distance. There are literally no pictures of them together. And Trump was willing to stay away to his credit. I am thrilled by this election result.
If this holds up, I would like to note that it was @soupguy Kelly who first and consistently said it was possible on these pages.
The only person obsessed with Trump in this campaign has been McAuliffe.
Official Virginia election reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%). Youngkin has maintained a 10 point lead as the precincts reporting rose from 50% to 75%. The lead shrank to 9.4 points as the precincts rose to 80% and the expected vote* percentage rose to 71%. I expect that lead to continue shrinking, but there is an establishment expectation, reflected in the Decision Desk early call, that the Democrats will not be able to overcome the early lead.
The Virginia governor’s race vote total is estimated to be 80% of all “expected votes,”* so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:
Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.
* “Expected vote” is a recent term of art, a made up AP media guestimate of the total number of ballots expected to be cast.
Exactly. Youngkin talked about the future and not the past. That’s the secret sauce.
I did put together a post on the member feed instead of the chat. But yeah missing it tonight.
Prediction: McAuliffe will never concede.
City of Richmond is only 10% in. Republican areas should have held their vote. Now the Dems know how many votes need to be manufactured.
UPDATE: Just checked and its now 21% in. Turnout seems to be very low. This election might be beyond the margin of fraud.
One county cant manufacture this amount of vote. Its a blowout, its very hard to steal a blowout. If this was a 51-49 race I would be more worried. But 55 45.
They would have needed 3 million mail ins, they only have 1.1 million and thats statewide.
Notice that it is the Youngkin campaign that made him own that and then dropped another video showing McAuliffe positively invoking Donald Trump in the past.
9:25 pm
2223 precincts of 2855
81.96 % Precincts Reporting | 74% expected vote
Republican
Democratic
The Republican is currently leading in NEW JERSEY!!!
That tracks with past decades’ similar elections. See 2009 rejection of the extreme Obama and the Democrat Congress. Same two states flipped to R and then there was a midterm Congressional wave election.
However, the NJ results reflect only about 1/3 of precincts, and the lead is very small, way inside the margin of cheating, plus the Democrats have a 1 million voter registration advantage. I will be very pleasantly surprised if Ciattarelli squeaks by.
VIRGINIA
84.17 % Precincts Reporting | 77% expected vote
Nov. 02, 2021 9:41 pm
Lieutenant Governor – General
86.48 % Precincts Reporting
Nov. 02, 2021 9:47 pm
Attorney General – General
86.48 % Precincts Reporting
Nov. 02, 2021 9:47 pm
Stacy McAuliffe
Congratulations to the Lincoln Project for their help in getting a Republican elected as Governor of Virginia.
When will we know beyond a shadow of a doubt(fraud)? I am still worried. Why can’t Fairfax county just manufacture the needed votes like Dems always seem to do at the last moment?
Don’t understand how this could be happening after McAuliffe won the coveted Bill Kristol endorsement.
Guys. It looks like Jersey is in play. That should be a sign of hope.
After McAuliff’s speech to his supporter’s, prediction still holding. He was dancing on stage as if he were the winner. Seems to know something we don’t.
And dare I say it? (“Dare! Dare!“) New Jersey as well?
Let’s hope that McAuliffe’s behavior is a result of them upping his meds for the evening.
Agree 100%.
There is no such thing as “normal movement against the president’s party.” Small-N, very small-N problem. The polling data and the issues effectively raised matter. Nice try by Micah Cohen trying to dismiss this and explain away the election as merely some law of American political cycles.
Murphy did not alienate parents, as McAuliffe did and then doubled down. There were no regional and national stories about outrageous conduct by NJ school boards intersecting with girls’ safety and racist indoctrination. Ciattarelli stayed on taxes as his big winning issue. He is in great danger of losing late on Election Night. Youngkin went hard on parents’ rights and education. AG Garland helped with his Stazification of federal law enforcement against parents.
NEW JERSEYGovernor – General70.24 % Precincts Reporting | 64% expected voteNov. 02, 2021 11:08 pm
Need to factor in an extra 2% to account for corruption.
I said it on my thread. And now saying it here. Republicans take New Jersey. Game over.
This is a good night. But just a comment on coverage: what in the heck is Fox News thinking not making the call in Virginia? Its getting embarrassing watching Bill Hemmer come up with reasons why they haven’t called it. One of the counties with significant votes left to post is running 55% Youngkin for goodness sake.
I can’t help but remember Election 202o Fox called Arizona for Biden with like 30% of the vote in. I was giving them 1 more chance.
2037
Donald John McAuliffe