Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
The Despair Runs Deep; Embrace It
Terry McAuliffe is going to win the governor’s race in Virginia. There, I said it. Yeah, his huge gaffe about parents having no business in their child’s education was a big deal … to normal people. However, normal people are an embattled minority in America’s political landscape. Virginia is a solidly blue state thanks in no small part to policies of mass immigration and profligate expansion of the bureaucratic state that are largely supported by the Republican establishment. The suburbs of Loudoun and Fairfax are politically indistinguishable from Portland or Seattle, and the suburban box-wine consumers who decide all elections these days are an unshakeable Democrat cult.
And it doesn’t matter anyway, really, because Glenn Youngkin really wasn’t going to matter as governor. He’s a soft Bushie Republican (but even that was too much for Bulwarkers like Bill Kristol and Mona Charen who have endorsed McAuliffe) who wasn’t really going to change any Democrat policies because that would be ungentlemanly and vulgar (as we learned from the last presidency).
Speaking of Bushie Republicans, Liz Cheney’s consultants apparently told her it was time to “throw out some red meat to the hicks,” so she tweeted that Biden was doing a bad job on border security. Sure, Liz, as if we’ve forgotten how you voted to impeach the only president in my lifetime who was actually serious about border security. (Even Reagan signed an amnesty bill.)
I hear tell some Republican donors are getting this fundraising appeal robo-blasted out to them. I guess Donald Trump is a useful figurehead for fundraising, even as the broader party — with the exception of maybe one Southern governor — repudiates his policies. I loathe the Republican Party so much. The only value proposition it has left is sucking slightly less than the Democrats, and some days it cannot even manage that.
Published in Politics
Is it a big deal that the Loudon County school district tried to cover-up the rape of young girl in a school bathroom? That would seem to be the extreme case of parents having no business in their child’s schooling.
I guess we’ll see if public school rape cover-ups are more important to the electorate than “Orange Man Bad.” We already know where Bill Kristol, Mona Charen, the WaPo Editorial Board, and suburban wine moms land on that. But broadly speaking, would a Youngkin governorship really in any way alter the political trajectory of Blue Virginia? No.
Their complete contempt for “me” became crystal clear during the Mississippi Republican Senate run-off in 2014. (Never Forget Mississippi 2014!) That lens has been very useful in “seeing” the uni-party game ever since.
That’s pretty awful. But I know it’s not the only one like that. Been hearing about others just as offensive, calling potential donors “traitors” if they don’t cough up money within a certain number of minutes.
We’re used to Democrats insulting people and then begging for their votes. I guess Republicans think that tactic works, too.
The Bulwark has gone full Democrat. Mona’s last piece is about a fight between the Bulwark and the Dispatch. Even Johnah thinks the folks at the Bulwark have lost the script, it is supposed to be Never Trump not Democrats are awesome.
Mona seems to think that the way forward is to elect Democrats and push them to the Center.
I agree … that is just one more delightful feature of the corrupt one Party state … A blatantly corrupt career grifter alcoholic like Terry McAuliffe can run a brutally awful campaign against the head winds of a disastrous (D) Biden led national policy debacle, in a state where the (D) led school boards are making the CCP look reasonable ….and McAuliffe will probably still win.
Welcome to Chicago.
It is a big deal in that what happened to the student, if true– and it seems to be true– was horrible. But it isn’t a big deal because it isn’t getting much coverage. How long do we spend, nationally on “white woman calls cop on black man in park” stories? Probably more than we should. But a school board covering up an alleged sexual assault? Hardly any. Very revealing.
Also, to the main post’s point: I am skeptical that Youngkin will win. I don’t necessarily see it as a bellwether race because VA is fairly blue now, McAuliffe was the governor, and has the name recognition. At the same time, Youngkin seems to have the goods and it is interesting to see him get within striking distance (at least in terms of polling) of winning. But I don’t think he wins.
The Bulwark’s defense of “Yes, we’re pro-Biden, but we’ve suggested that he should moderate” just says everything.
The Bulwark is a centrist-Democrat organization, which places it a little bit to the right of the North American Man-Boy Lincoln Project and a little bit to the left of NRO/The Dispatch. The Bulwark and NAMBLP are useful to Democrats. It’s hard to see what value NRO/The Dispatch are to anyone. They basically exist to allow Jonah Goldberg to tweet pictures of his dogs.
Mona is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
I reside in one of the staunchly red counties in Virginia in the Shenandoah valley. The state, county-wise, is still overwhelmingly conservative but alas has no electoral college style system. NOVA, RIC & Hampton Roads dominates due to the leftist, hive-mind of high population centers. The Loudon County exposure is a wildcard that should not be underestimated though. The fact that this is stirring national interest, coming from a slovenly, disgustingly leftist county is eye-opening, IMO.
Without getting my hopes too high, there are issues here that can actually shake loose the mindlock of Chardonnay suburban moms…don’t mess with momma-bear’s cubs. Here is where I’ll take adequate over perfect with Mr. Youngkin – don’t forfeit good for perfect. Without an attractive alternative who is ‘reasonably’ conservative, the pearl-clutching would dominate over reason for these blue-brainwashed voters. Hence McAuliffe’s full court press to turn Youngkin into Trumpkin.
Would (Youngkin) change the political trajectory of Blue Virginia? I don’t think he is anything like the wolf in sheep’s clothing as Bush-Romney-Cheney are so I’ll start with baby-steps right now.
Well if/when McAuliffe wins it will just prove that we have not yet hit critical mass. Empty shelves at the grocery store and for Christmas along with skyrocketing heating bills this winter might make even the NT wankywonkers long for the late ’70s.
I think this is a great point on timing. VA gubernatorial elections are held on these ‘off-years’ by design. Has Bidenistan created enough havoc in these population centers to enact change? If not, Virginia will have 6-long years of Hillary-lite.
Who would always post the graphs showing the shift in each party’s center? I don’t have them on hand. Those would be an excellent example for why this is foolish. What I remember the graphs showing was 20-30 years ago both party centers were a few points off true center (for however the poll was conducted). A few years ago, the right had shifted a bit to the right, but the left had leapt to the left. It would take a Herculean effort to push them to the Center.
That’s one thing Jim Geraghty, who gets everything wrong, got right about Biden. He pushed back on the claim that Biden was a moderate or centrist. Jim pointed out that Biden is a centrist of his party, not the overall political center. Therefore, since his party had shifted so far to the Left, Biden had shifted to the Left to find the new center.
“And it doesn’t matter anyway, really, because Glenn Youngkin really wasn’t going to matter as governor.”
It matters a LOT. A Dem win in this race would send a very strong signal that voters don’t care about the ability to control or even influence the schools; that they care more about Wokeness than about the safety of their own children.
The blue counties in No. Va. are a very large hurdle for any Republican candidate. As a result, McAwful has to be regarded as the favorite. That said, my view as a resident is that Youngkin—who BTW is not quite as described in the O/P—has what used to be called a puncher’s chance due to apathy about his opponent, the drag from Biden, and the whole schools thing.
Well, she is a genius. So, there is that.
Surprised this downer of a post has
2224 likes, TBH.Your OP correctly lowers the conservative expectations about winning statewide elections in blue DC metro Lefty nut wagon states.
Pessimism tastes delicious.
Is it blind hope that most feel your original analysis might be too pessimistic? I will say that my cautious positivity toward Younkin is with considerable nervousness
Well, I checked his website and its pretty much standard Bushie-Republican pablum. “Yea, tax cuts! Crime is bad! Fix education through more spending (and banning CRT, which is a good thing, even if it gives David French sadfeels)!” And stuff that Republicans always promise but never deliver like ” Cutting Job Killing Regulations.” Republicans always promise to cut regulations, but with the notable exceptions of Trump and DeSantis (who are viewed as radicals), rarely are regulations actually eliminated. With Republican promises, I’m like, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me continuously for twenty years, shame on me.”
I think Virginia is way too far gone for Youngkin to win, and at the same time, nothing about his campaign inspires me to think that he’d be any different than Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker.
This is what the Republicans never understand.
The Democrats care only about political gain. No Republican will ever get credit from them no matter close the Republicans are to what the Democrats say they want.
I dunno—how many campaign websites aren’t pablum to a degree? I’m not sure what you’d like to see, but apparently Trump saw something since McAwful’s entire campaign has been based on tying Youngkin to Trump’s endorsement. The present governor, Attorney General, and legislature have pushed Virginia so far left that Youngkin could make a big difference.
Republicans are basically stupid. There is enormous potential in white, working class potential voters who don’t vote. Forget about suburban women like Gary. Don’t pander to them or bend the race towards them.. They don’t matter. Getting those who don’t vote to vote is where the winning and losing will matter.
And the reason they don’t vote is because they are smart enough to have figured out it doesn’t matter. Convincing them that it does matter would mean actually reaching out to them where they live, listening to them, and then actually pushing policies that would help them.
But, no, it’s so much easier for Republicans to parrot whatever their Beltway consultants, NRO, and the Wall Street Journal tell them.
“suburban women like Gary” = Comedy excellence …. nicely done.
GOPe priorities
1. establishment Republican
2. ‘moderate’ Democrat
3. tie : left wing Democrat / Trump Republican
Truth is truth, whether or not we like to hear it, and whether or not acknowledging it makes a positive contribution to our political and cultural battles.
In this case, I think you’re largely mistaken, and working against the goals of conservatism.
Speaking of Trump: an overwhelming majority of Republicans supported him in 2020. According to Pew (as of a week or two ago), a solid two thirds of Republicans want him to remain active in the party moving forward, and about half want him to run again in 2024. Those numbers are rising.
I understand anger and frustration. I understand wanting to cut off one’s proboscis to send the face a message. But I think we will do better — and by we I mean conservatives — if we take a more positive, optimistic, and constructive approach to the Republican Party.
Respectfully, then, I don’t think you understand my point. My attitude toward the Republican party isn’t spite, it’s hopelessness. Whatever anyone’s tolerance for betrayal is, 20+ years of broken promises surely exceeds it.
That sounds nice and all, but as a practical matter, how does it work? How do we get a Republican Party that will actually follow through on conservative policies (besides tax cuts) by being positive and optimistic in the face on their constant contempt and betrayal?
If the election is a referendum on the power of government employees (school boards), that could be a problem for the GOP. If it a choice on child safety, that hurts the Dems.