Things Are Heating Up in the South China Sea

 

I believe that we will be in a war with China within a decade. I think that its best bet is to wait for our inevitable sectarian civil war. However, Biden is clearly so compromised, and there are such clear ties to China, I think maybe the time is now. When you add in things like Evergrande failing, maybe China has to move now.

And why not go for the brass ring and attack Taiwan?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10063171/China-warns-World-War-Three-triggered-time.html

China is an evil nation, run by evil people, that does evil things. We should stand against it.

But evil people in our nation want all the money they can get.

Published in Foreign Policy
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  1. David Foster Member
    David Foster
    @DavidFoster

    It is Evergrande, the property company, that is in trouble–Evergreen, the Taiwanese shipping company, is health AFAIK.

    Interesting piece at the investment site Seeking Alpha: What is Taiwan Semiconductor Worth if China Invades the Island?

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458573-what-taiwan-semiconductor-is-worth-if-china-invades-the-island

    Would be bad news for TSM’s shareholders…and TSM’s market cap at the moment is $531B…but that harm would be dwarfed by the harm to companies that depend on TSM’s chips, their employees, shareholders, and communities.

    • #1
  2. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    One thing that makes me think this unlikely.

    China would become a Paria . All the people of all the western countries would see China as an evil. China would most likely be cut off from western trade, tanking there economy and any world prestige. 

    • #2
  3. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    One thing that makes me think this unlikely.

    China would become a Paria . All the people of all the western countries would see China as an evil. China would most likely be cut off from western trade, tanking there economy and any world prestige.

    I don’t agree. They all love China. I think they will support them whatever. 

     

    • #3
  4. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    David Foster (View Comment):

    It is Evergrande, the property company, that is in trouble–Evergreen, the Taiwanese shipping company, is health AFAIK.

    Interesting piece at the investment site Seeking Alpha: What is Taiwan Semiconductor Worth if China Invades the Island?

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458573-what-taiwan-semiconductor-is-worth-if-china-invades-the-island

    Would be bad news for TSM’s shareholders…and TSM’s market cap at the moment is $531B…but that harm would be dwarfed by the harm to companies that depend on TSM’s chips, their employees, shareholders, and communities.

    If I were Taiwan, I’d be clear that if we were losing the war, we would blow up all the factories. Rig them right now. 

    And I edited the name. Thanks. 

    • #4
  5. David Foster Member
    David Foster
    @DavidFoster

    TSM is building a major plant in Arizona, but it will take a while.  

    • #5
  6. Mark Alexander Coolidge
    Mark Alexander
    @MarkAlexander

    Didn’t Rob Long state in the most recent Ricochet podcast that China as no genuine interest in Taiwan?

    • #6
  7. Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw Member
    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw
    @MattBalzer

    Another possibility. 

    • #7
  8. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Someone mentioned at work today the possibility of China going after Dongsha. They are some islands to the south claimed by Taiwan. He was looking at the Chinese flights into Taiwan’s ADIZ and noticed a lot of them are to the southwest of Taiwan. He was thinking China might be practicing cutting off Taiwan from defending their islands and it might be good practice before an amphibious landing of the main island.

    • #8
  9. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw (View Comment):

    Another possibility.

    Also Scary

    • #9
  10. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    I think they have planned the long game and the short game – communists are patient.  I have to ask myself if Biden is compromised, given his son’s laptops and blackmail possibilities. Biden has made one major blunder after another – but are they really blunders? He left Afghanistan a major mess, and China wants the rich resources of minerals there. They’ve been buddying up with the Taliban so that worked out. They’ve set their sites on Taiwan for awhile – they know we are a paper tiger with our woke, planet obsessed, build back better administration. So that’s working out.  They may look like they are trying to be green but that’s like saying the Nazis cared about valuable farmland while they invaded countries.

    Then there’s the mysterious virus……those corona-type enigmas that all seem to originate from there. They don’t cooperate, they lie, and the origins of COVID 19 have never been found. The vaccine is just a copy of the genetic sequence of what appears to be an un-natural emergence of a serious virus to disrupt the world on all levels. I see a red setting sun.

    They are the Kings of the East – check your Bible.

    • #10
  11. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    One thing that makes me think this unlikely.

    China would become a Paria . All the people of all the western countries would see China as an evil. China would most likely be cut off from western trade, tanking there economy and any world prestige.

    I don’t agree. They all love China. I think they will support them whatever.

    If I join the CCP I don’t have to get the next vaccine.

    • #11
  12. Dbroussa Coolidge
    Dbroussa
    @Dbroussa

    David Foster (View Comment):

    It is Evergrande, the property company, that is in trouble–Evergreen, the Taiwanese shipping company, is health AFAIK.

    Interesting piece at the investment site Seeking Alpha: What is Taiwan Semiconductor Worth if China Invades the Island?

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458573-what-taiwan-semiconductor-is-worth-if-china-invades-the-island

    Would be bad news for TSM’s shareholders…and TSM’s market cap at the moment is $531B…but that harm would be dwarfed by the harm to companies that depend on TSM’s chips, their employees, shareholders, and communities.

    First off, I don’t think that “everyone” agrees that Taiwan will and should be reunited with China. I’m fairly certain that the Taiwanese don’t want that.

    TSC fabs the majority of the highest tech chips in the world and losing or interrupting that flow would be massively disruptive. Just the flow disruptions in the auto industry have been massive due to Covid changes in manufacturing that got the auto makers out of line for chips. It’s unlikely that China would want to damage the fabs, but a disruption is certain in light of any confkict and it’s reourcussions could severely impact the world economy. Try buying a high or medium end graphics card these days as one example. 

    • #12
  13. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Dbroussa (View Comment):

    David Foster (View Comment):

    It is Evergrande, the property company, that is in trouble–Evergreen, the Taiwanese shipping company, is health AFAIK.

    Interesting piece at the investment site Seeking Alpha: What is Taiwan Semiconductor Worth if China Invades the Island?

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458573-what-taiwan-semiconductor-is-worth-if-china-invades-the-island

    Would be bad news for TSM’s shareholders…and TSM’s market cap at the moment is $531B…but that harm would be dwarfed by the harm to companies that depend on TSM’s chips, their employees, shareholders, and communities.

    First off, I don’t think that “everyone” agrees that Taiwan will and should be reunited with China. I’m fairly certain that the Taiwanese don’t want that.

    TSC fabs the majority of the highest tech chips in the world and losing or interrupting that flow would be massively disruptive. Just the flow disruptions in the auto industry have been massive due to Covid changes in manufacturing that got the auto makers out of line for chips. It’s unlikely that China would want to damage the fabs, but a disruption is certain in light of any confkict and it’s reourcussions could severely impact the world economy. Try buying a high or medium end graphics card these days as one example.

    I just don’t think we can assume China won’t be willing to disrupt everything if their economy is already failing. 

    • #13
  14. Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw Member
    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw
    @MattBalzer

    Dbroussa (View Comment):
    First off, I don’t think that “everyone” agrees that Taiwan will and should be reunited with China. I’m fairly certain that the Taiwanese don’t want that.

    It depends on the conditions under which it happens.

    • #14
  15. Dbroussa Coolidge
    Dbroussa
    @Dbroussa

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

     

    I just don’t think we can assume China won’t be willing to disrupt everything if their economy is already failing.

    Oh, I think they will invade Taiwan because even the disruption leads to their long term goals.  If they take Taiwan, then they control the high tech semi-conductor market for the world.  Yes, there is a fab in South Korea, but it cannot meet the demand for the West and we will have to go to China.  Looking at their behavior with the Huawei routers, with Huawei 5G, and with pretty much everything that Chinese companies produce…what damage could they cause when they control the fabs for most semi-conductors.  Could anyone trust a device that has one of their chips in it to not have hardware level backdoors to allow for Chinese hacking of the systems?  If one thinks about that question objectively there is only one answer and it is not a chance in hell.

    At some point the West might figure out that the Chinese are playing this game at another level.  To them it is total competition (I won’t call it war because it really isn’t war).  They will use every level that they can control to dominate the world economy and further their aims.  Xi snapping up the internal billionaires and bringing them to heel is a feature to them.  They count on the fact that while it has a short term chilling effect on their economy, that it will be soon forgotten and a new crop of super smart people will create massive new wealth that they will then nationalize and do it again and again.  In a country of over 1B where most are in abject poverty, there will always be new entrepreneurs who will create wealth.

    People talk about the underlying strength or weakness of an economy, and China has massive underlying strengths.  Perhaps the two largest strengths are first, that they see their economic activity as an aspect of their political activity, and secondly, that they have a massive untapped poor that are hungry for stability and wealth.  That hunger for improvement so outpaces the US that it should scare us.  We are complacent and lazy because we are fantastically wealthy in the US.  Our poor are rich by most of the world’s standards and yet we prattle on about inequality and how rough the poor have it in the US.  Our poor are not motivated to want to work to become rich.  Instead they want to be taken care of.  That fundamental difference is something that China can tap to grow their economy and that first strength is why they will certainly invade Taiwan to dominate the semi-conductor market.

    • #15
  16. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Dbroussa (View Comment):

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

     

    I just don’t think we can assume China won’t be willing to disrupt everything if their economy is already failing.

    Oh, I think they will invade Taiwan because even the disruption leads to their long term goals. If they take Taiwan, then they control the high tech semi-conductor market for the world. Yes, there is a fab in South Korea, but it cannot meet the demand for the West and we will have to go to China. Looking at their behavior with the Huawei routers, with Huawei 5G, and with pretty much everything that Chinese companies produce…what damage could they cause when they control the fabs for most semi-conductors. Could anyone trust a device that has one of their chips in it to not have hardware level backdoors to allow for Chinese hacking of the systems? If one thinks about that question objectively there is only one answer and it is not a chance in hell.

    At some point the West might figure out that the Chinese are playing this game at another level. To them it is total competition (I won’t call it war because it really isn’t war). They will use every level that they can control to dominate the world economy and further their aims. Xi snapping up the internal billionaires and bringing them to heel is a feature to them. They count on the fact that while it has a short term chilling effect on their economy, that it will be soon forgotten and a new crop of super smart people will create massive new wealth that they will then nationalize and do it again and again. In a country of over 1B where most are in abject poverty, there will always be new entrepreneurs who will create wealth.

    People talk about the underlying strength or weakness of an economy, and China has massive underlying strengths. Perhaps the two largest strengths are first, that they see their economic activity as an aspect of their political activity, and secondly, that they have a massive untapped poor that are hungry for stability and wealth. That hunger for improvement so outpaces the US that it should scare us. We are complacent and lazy because we are fantastically wealthy in the US. Our poor are rich by most of the world’s standards and yet we prattle on about inequality and how rough the poor have it in the US. Our poor are not motivated to want to work to become rich. Instead they want to be taken care of. That fundamental difference is something that China can tap to grow their economy and that first strength is why they will certainly invade Taiwan to dominate the semi-conductor market.

    Scary. 

     

    I Hope Taiwan goes scorched Earth as needed. 

    • #16
  17. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    One thing that makes me think this unlikely.

    China would become a Paria . All the people of all the western countries would see China as an evil. China would most likely be cut off from western trade, tanking there economy and any world prestige.

    I don’t agree. They all love China. I think they will support them whatever.

     

    PRC has lots of cash to toss around. Folks in the West would like some of that to rain down on them.  If you are in a position of power, you are in a position to aim the funnel at your bank account.  If you are a souless globalist you have nothing to lose and everything to gain.  

    • #17
  18. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Matt Balzer, Imperialist Claw (View Comment):

    Another possibility.

    Worth the quick read.  

    • #18
  19. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    One thing that makes me think this unlikely.

    China would become a Paria . All the people of all the western countries would see China as an evil. China would most likely be cut off from western trade, tanking there economy and any world prestige.

    I don’t agree. They all love China. I think they will support them whatever.

    If I join the CCP I don’t have to get the next vaccine.

    Fat chance.  

    • #19
  20. Judge Mental Member
    Judge Mental
    @JudgeMental

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    One thing that makes me think this unlikely.

    China would become a Paria . All the people of all the western countries would see China as an evil. China would most likely be cut off from western trade, tanking there economy and any world prestige.

    I don’t agree. They all love China. I think they will support them whatever.

    If I join the CCP I don’t have to get the next vaccine.

    Fat chance.

    He can’t really know until after his anal swab test.

    • #20
  21. W Bob Member
    W Bob
    @WBob

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    One thing that makes me think this unlikely.

    China would become a Paria . All the people of all the western countries would see China as an evil. China would most likely be cut off from western trade, tanking there economy and any world prestige.

    I don’t agree. They all love China. I think they will support them whatever.

    I think many people in the west…politicians, celebrities, journalists, and other high profile people…have already come to the conclusion, perhaps even subconsciously, that China is going to win in the end, and they don’t want to be on their sh..t list when that happens. This governs all their public statements and actions. If China invaded Taiwan or even attacked our forces, these people would apologize for it.

    • #21
  22. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    I agree with much of what you say.  If you were the President, what would you do?

    • #22
  23. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    I think that China will go to new lengths to pressure Taiwan into submission but I think that invasion in the near future is unlikely.  I am told that the Chinese do not have the amphibious capability for a major landing and the Taiwanese would clobber the size force they could deploy currently. A big defeat and failed invasion would be a major humiliation.  They are a patient, risk-averse bunch. Only if the USA surrenders its role and allows Taiwan to be economically strangled will the Taiwanese go under.

    Countries in that region that had assumed that joining the Chinese economic sphere was both inevitable and beneficial (e.g., Australia) are now in a different mode.

    China appears to be headed for a return to full commie control with all the economic non-joy that will cause for its people.  I think they have been drinking their own Kool-Aid about their new unchanging status in the world and think they can increase their power and influence by shucking the coats and ties and going full Red Guard chic.  That is nuts.

    A semi-competent US administration would detach us from the Chinese supply lines, maintain or even increase the requisite naval presence in the western pacific, strengthen ties in the region and let the Chinese screw themselves.

     

    • #23
  24. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    I have five ideas.

    FIrst, I would suggest that a sale of the super quiet nuclear powered subs to Taiwan would help them stave off landing crafts.  Taiwan is 110 miles or so from the Chinese border, and these subs could sink a bunch of Chinese ships.

    Second, would be for us to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership asap, whose goal was to be a check on China.

    Third, offer special visas to the people of Hong Kong to come to the United States.  Trump and Biden totally did not make China pay for swallowing Hong Kong.  The Hong Kong people are amazingly industrious.  We need more of them here.

    Fourth, limit visas for the children of CCP officials to come to the U.S. 

    Fifth, allow Chinese students to stay in the U.S. after they graduate.

    What other ways can China be checked in its desire to swallow Taiwan?

    • #24
  25. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    I agree with much of what you say. If you were the President, what would you do?

    Be open in unabashed support for Taiwan and Japan.

    Be very clear that Taiwan is an independent nation and an ally.

    Look to reach an agreement to put US Ships into Taiwan. 

    Not have killed the Canadian pipeline

    Not have dropped charges against a clear agent 

    Be open that the United States of America believes its next war will be with China and have 100% of the military engage in training accordingly, just as we did with the USSR. 

    Aggressively court Russia and India as allies against China 

    Promote laws to support key strategic industries returning to America – COVID has shown that this stuff should not be shipped to us. We control a continent and should be 100% self sufficient 

    Promote America as the beacon of light of freedom in the world and cast China as the cruel evil empire it is. 

     

    • #25
  26. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    I have five ideas.

    FIrst, I would suggest that a sale of the super quiet nuclear powered subs to Taiwan would help them stave off landing crafts. Taiwan is 110 miles or so from the Chinese border, and these subs could sink a bunch of Chinese ships.

    Second, would be for us to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership asap, whose goal was to be a check on China.

    Third, offer special visas to the people of Hong Kong to come to the United States. Trump and Biden totally did not make China pay for swallowing Hong Kong. The Hong Kong people are amazingly industrious. We need more of them here.

    Fourth, limit visas for the children of CCP officials to come to the U.S.

    Fifth, allow Chinese students to stay in the U.S. after they graduate.

    What other ways can China be checked in its desire to swallow Taiwan?

    Put US Nuke Cruise Missiles in Taiwan. 

    Begin blatant invasion of China’s airspace, on a one to one basis for every time they do it to our ally. 

    IN short, I would be as belligerent as possible, so that China knows for a fact that if they start something, we will finish it. 

    • #26
  27. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    I actually think China is about to implode. Enormous internal debts, collapsing companies… And the new emphasis on returning to Maoism will terrify away all external capital.

    • #27
  28. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    iWe (View Comment):

    I actually think China is about to implode. Enormous internal debts, collapsing companies… And the new emphasis on returning to Maoism will terrify away all external capital.

    I agree 100%.

    That is why they will lash out. 

    • #28
  29. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Not sure at this point if China’s senior military command is too political and ours is too corrupt or ours is too political and theirs is too corrupt.  [This might be the time when someone will reminded me of the power of “and.”] 

    • #29
  30. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Not sure at this point if China’s senior military command is too political and ours is too corrupt or ours is too political and theirs is too corrupt. [This might be the time when someone will reminded me of the power of “and.”]

    Terrifying thought that the last time all the world’s great powers had militaries run by morons millions died in the trenches.

    • #30