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The Logic of Forever COVID
With summer turning to autumn, the local paper of ill repute is warning of a “twindemic”:
The one thing [epidemiologists] fear is the possibility that the flu could spiral out of control this winter and if COVID does the same, doctors could be dealing with a “twindemic.” A twindemic is a situation where there are two pandemics or epidemics going on at the same time, such as the flu and COVID-19.
In such a scenario, the flu could reach historically high levels and along with COVID could swamp hospitals even more so than last year when the flu was kept at bay.
Why might this “twindemic” happen?
With less natural immunity in the community because fewer people were exposed to the flu last season, it’s possible cases of the flu could rebound dramatically this year, [OSU epidemiology professor Bill] Miller said.
“It sort of sets us up for an increase this year,” Miller said. “I think a significant return of influenza this year is a real possibility.”
With the flu season approaching this year, there is no state-mandated COVID mask requirement and distancing rules as there were last year. So unless they’re put back in place in individual communities as they have been in Columbus and several Greater Columbus suburbs, they could allow the flu to run rampant, Miller said.
Catch that? The flu is coming. It could be bad. Nobody has natural immunity this year. We’re not prepared. We’re in for trouble . . . unless, of course, we submit ourselves to the health-and-safety regime:
“So much depends on what happens with COVID and when we say in different parts of the country that it’s back under control,” Miller said. “… It’ll depend on when people let their guard down.”
One possibility, Miller said, is that places with masking and social distancing requirements may see their flu season delayed until COVID again recedes and mask mandates are again eased. For some places that could be February or March, Miller said.
Last year, COVID-related restrictions disrupted the ordinary cycles of disease transmission. This has left us more vulnerable to diseases. RSV surged this summer. The flu might surge this winter. We can delay the inevitable a bit longer, right? What’s six more months after a year-and-a-half of this? We can’t let our guard down now! And we can’t let our guard down in the spring, either. The flu could be even worse then.
The logic is clear: Forever COVID is here. We’ll be wearing masks and attending Zoom “parties” forever.
Unless we decide not to. Unless we choose to return to normal whatever our betters tell us, whatever the diktats say, and whatever the social costs might be.
Published in Domestic Policy
Everyone’s experiences will vary, without a doubt, and those experiences will affect how you assess credibility. Speaking only for myself, the main Covid story has lined up fairly well with my experiences.
They said early on this would be a deadly illness, but the vast majority will survive it. That’s certainly been my experience – most people I’ve known who had it got over it fine. But some have died and some had close calls – as you would expect from the news reports.
Most of the people I knew or knew of who died were elderly, but not all of them. A couple of people under 50, but most over 70. Again, as you would expect from the stats.
They said masks and distancing would prevent transmission. Can’t say for sure why, but last year, with 3 young kids in schools with masks and distancing required, we had nary a sniffle in the house all year. Not even a head cold, let alone Covid, flu or anything else. That has never happened before.
This year, no masks in school, and within 3 weeks after the first day, four fifths of our household were all down with Covid.
They said the vaccine was safe. The majority of adults I know have gotten it. Maybe the vast majority. I’ve not heard of anyone having any problems with it beyond the expected and normal and harmless reaction. I know of one person who thinks it might have caused occasional vertigo, but they are not sure, and it cleared up within a few weeks.
They said the vaccine would not completely prevent all infection, but would keep them mild. Mine was a pretty mild case. They said Moderna protected a little better than Pfizer. I had Pfizer. My wife got Moderna and she was the only one of the 5 of us not to get sick.
They said hospitals were having a hard time keeping up and each time that was in the news, I had already been hearing about it from people I know who work in hospitals.
So, I certainly agree that many have overreacted, mis-predicted, done useless things just for the sake of doing something (last year’s 10:00pm curfew in Ohio for example).
But just based on my personal experiences and observations, the basic Covid narrative seems to have been pretty accurate. In assessing all the credibility of all these competing Covid claims, that can’t help but play a role. I may be the only one, but I doubt it.
I had seen the information about kids getting fatter during their year plus of being stuck at home, and have wondered how many more health problems they’re going to have from that than they would from spreading viruses around. Fat kids tend to have myriad health issues, many of which become life-long issues.
Somebody did this from CDC data:
And more joy: Diabetes type 2 is climbing. RSV is said to be worse than usual by some (I cannot confirm). The data on teen ODs, suicides, ER mental health visits seems to indicate a big increase. It is not enough for politicians and government experts to promise to get it right next time. There has to be some serious suffering imposed.
Politicians rarely get it right, and they never learn from their mistakes. They just do the same thing, but more intently with greater costs.
FIFY
USA live births:
The total reported live births for 1946-1947 was 1,431,000 more than for 1944-1945.
Maybe averaging isn’t the correct method. Why don’t they use actuarial tables?
Also, raw numbers are meaningless without considering population changes. Yes, covid seems to have had something of an impact. No, it was nowhere close to justifying the utter destruction of individual liberty, checks and balances, separation of powers.
I really don’t care what a person’s experiences are when it comes to the question of whether or not that person is permitted to force his own behavior preferences on everyone else.
Exactly.
The plural of “anecdote” is not “data”.
I disagree.
I agree. If people’s experience and the emotional weight of their experience play into social interactions and mask-wearing decisions, I would like to point out that after a year and a half or this, I’m tired of saying What, what? what?? and having to ask people to pull down masks when they talk to me. There’s no reason why masks should be the default position. I think people should be maskless unless someone declares their mask personal preference.
Okay, but just for the record, I wasn’t talking about mandates at all. I was responding to Lileks’ comment making assumptions about people he sees wearing masks at the grocery store, who are just going about their business and not bothering anyone about it.
This Gallup Poll reinforces your opinion on this. The headline of the article “Gallup Survey: Republicans underestimate Covid risks while Democrats overestimate them” is totally misleading. When you look at the actual graphs, it shows that Republicans also overestimate the rates of hospitalizations along with Democrats, just not nearly as much. A whopping 41% of Democrats think that 50% or more of all Covid infections result in hospitalizations. This is the ridiculous finding that Bill Maher complained about recently when he said that Democrats were believing the hype from the dishonest media.