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Vexing Vax Performance Puzzles
Bloomberg is hardly right-wing conspiracy central, nor is it a Hollyweird lefty anti-vax, anti-fluoride media organ. So, their recent straight reporting article on the comparative efficacy of natural versus vaccine-induced COVID-19 immunity against the Delta variant is a noteworthy from the leftist scientism party line. Bloomberg reports on a very large sample study of the Israeli population, and commendably links directly to the medRxiv paper.
While not conclusive, this study reinforces a century or more of human experience and underlines the abject failure of every single Republican executive, from your favorite governor to President Trump and Vice President Pence, to compel truth-telling in public health bureaucracy web graphics. From Day 1, we should have seen a steadily increasing number of Americans with naturally acquired immunity, eventually joined by a faster-growing number of Americans with vaccine-induced immunity. The first governor to force this truth into the open will be the prohibitive favorite for presidential nomination in 2024.
medRxiv is “the preprint server for health services.” All papers, and the web portal, bear the proper notice:
Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
The paper in question makes claims and reports conclusions that are quite conventional, not “controversial,” since the day General George Washington had his troops at Valley Forge line up for cow pox inoculation. In short, Israel aggressively, early administered the two-dose Pfizer vaccine. Their politicians and public health officials started from a real science perspective, so did not strike the anti-scientific scientism pose that people who recovered from COVID-19 needed to be jabbed right along with everyone else. More recently, Israeli public health officials recommended a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine as a booster against newer variants for those with naturally acquired immunity.
This study demonstrated that natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity. Individuals who were both previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and given a single dose of the vaccine gained additional protection against the Delta variant.
Consider how three states with Republican governors, Arizona, South Dakota, and Florida, have communicated the level of immunity in their populations.
Arizona has consistently provided clear and fairly comprehensive charts and map graphics on Arizona’s COVID-19 web page. Let’s look at the numbers.
Cumulative Cases: 1,007,854
Cumulative Deaths: 18,787
From these two numbers we can fairly conclude the number naturally immune = 1,007,854 cases -18,787 deaths = 989,067 recovered with natural immunity. In a rational, truly scientific world, none of these would be early “vaccinated”, so we would be at:
4,012,495 artificially immunized by vaccination PLUS 989,067 naturally immunized by live virus exposure = 5,001,562 with immunity
However, not all “cases” are confirmed cases, so let’s adjust for the most certain answer. 927195 confirmed cases -16745 deaths= 910,450 confirmed natural immunity.
4,012,495 vaccinated + 910,450 recovered = 4,922,945 confirmed immunity
AZ population estimate: 7,189,020
SO, the true immunization rate in AZ = 5,001,562/7189020 = 69.6% immunized
AZ falsely reports only 55.8% people vaccinated. There is an enormous difference between 55.8 and 69.6. The first looks like barely more than half. The second is clearly more than 2/3. The first is a lab-coat leftist lie for continued control by panic porn. The second is historically, true medical science based, factual information. Lord Governor Ducey owns this.
Surely Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has done better in messaging. After all, he has been the focus of media personal destruction efforts. Sadly, not only does his state not provide clear and comprehensive graphics, the Florida COVID-19 data document they serve up is much less informative than Arizona’s dashboard.
Cumulative cases: 3,179,714
Cumulative deaths: 43,979
SO: 3,179,714- 43,979 = 3135735 recovered with natural immunity
10,785,185 completely vaccinated + 3,135,735 recovered with natural immunity = 13,920,920
Total Florida 2021 population estimate = 21,975,117
Percent total population with immunity = 13,920,920/21,975,117 = 63.3%
Florida shows nothing of hospital utilization, so lets leftist lies flourish. At the same time, Florida recognizes the mental health risks of COVID-19.
The outbreak of COVID-19 is stressful for most people. Fear and anxiety about a disease can be overwhelming and cause strong emotions in adults and children. Taking care of yourself, your friends, and your family can help you cope with stress. Helping others cope with their stress can also make your community stronger.
It is natural to feel stress, anxiety, grief, and worry during an ongoing crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic. Everyone reacts differently and your own feelings will change over time. Notice and accept how you feel. Taking care of your emotional health will help you think clearly and react to the urgent needs to protect yourself and your family. Self-care will help your long-term healing.
Kudos to South Dakota and Governor Kristi Noem for shown “Recovered Cases” on their COVID dashboard homepage. Add to this praise the best vaccination tracker table, based on the 2019 census estimate of 12+ year olds.
195675 Pfizer +26,369 J&J +149138 Moderna = 371,182 fully vaccinated
124,722 Recovered = 124,722 natural immunity
So, South Dakota’s total immunity = 371,182+124,722= 495,904
South Dakota 2019 population: 884,659
495,904/ 884,659= 56.1% total South Dakota population with COVID-19 immunity. AND YET, even South Dakota has failed to communicate real immunization status, the real ability to resist an infection so serious it causes hospitalization and death.
Governors Ducey, DeSantis, and Noem have all failed to fully inform their own populations and have failed to push the terms of national conversation towards true medical science. Consider the National Institutes of Health early position on naturally acquired immunity:
- The immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID-19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection.
- The results provide hope that people receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will develop similar lasting immune memories after vaccination.
I am sure the governors or their staff read the Wall Street Journal, among other major media sources, so they were likely primed on the subject of immunity truth-telling back in June, when Marty Makary wrote “The Power of Natural Immunity.”
The news about the U.S. Covid pandemic is even better than you’ve heard. Some 80% to 85% of American adults are immune to the virus: More than 64% have received at least one vaccine dose and, of those who haven’t, roughly half have natural immunity from prior infection. There’s ample scientific evidence that natural immunity is effective and durable, and public-health leaders should pay it heed.
Only around 10% of Americans have had confirmed positive Covid tests, but four to six times as many have likely had the infection. A February study in Nature used antibody screenings in late summer 2020 to estimate there had been seven times as many actual cases as confirmed cases. A similar study, by the University of Albany and New York State Department of Health, revealed that by the end of March 2020—the first month of New York’s pandemic—23% of the city’s population had antibodies. That share necessarily increased as the pandemic spread.
This is not hard math. The relevant data is already in each state’s public reporting. And yet, every single one of these supposedly courageous, competent governors has given the upper hand to the panic porn propaganda of the lying lab-coat left, led by Tony Fraudci. I have not examined every state’s data presentation. Please look at your own state or states and share any instance of more informative data presentation.
Published in Domestic Policy
Those things are on the margin. And he’s not talking about the margins here, it’s the presentation of the data.
As Dr. Jay said, everyone is going to get covid at some point. Which still makes immunization OK, as it will likely mitigate the impacts at all age demographics, but it’s definitely something you’d want to see high participation in, for the at-risk groups.
What the above blows up a bit is the garbage argument that the vaccines provide better protection against the virus than if you had Covid and survived, the normal natural immunity. Which many people have been arguing the wrong side of as justification to make sure
Pfizer’s gigantic revenue machine continues its Long March, er,the government will continue to demonstrate it has control over every aspect of our lives, er, that we’re all just super-healthy thanks to a consistently self-contradicting and historically failed Fauci.Accurate. They haven’t spent any of those billions on the primary charge of the organization, which is to evaluate those types of public health solutions – all of them. So nothing on the Ivermectins, the z-paks, etc,
Why? Because it gores their bull. Why promote a $1 solution when the provider’s is $10?
The entire event is a colossal demonstration of why handing off this level of control over our lives is ever and always a bad idea, not without some kind of check and balance against it – which is why, I thought, we bothered to elect Representatives to Congress. When those people are primarily motivated to be re-elected, can receive campaign help from Pfizer, indirectly or not, what do you think they’ll choose to do?
It’s no different from going along with multi-trillion dollar budgets, with close to half of that spending done through borrowing. What do they care? Those budgets equal votes.
We will continue to get more of the same.
Accurate, all of the above. The breakthroughs are even more likely to occur since typically you vaccinate ahead of the pandemic, or in a normal year, something we call “flu season”. Vaccinating during the event will only trigger faster variations that may or may not be as affected by the vaccine, so you’ll get “breakthroughs” based on the current state of events. Lots of ’em.
It’s no different than the annual flu vaccination approach (although the mRNA approach for Covid is a larger topic), the likeliest strain is used to create the vaccine, but may not have the same effect on the inevitable variations that occur, since it’s a best guess ahead of the season.
Agree 100%. Batting aside functional medicine is ignoring reality.
“There was a period of about thirty seconds” sent me instantly to day dreams about half-life and exponential decay.
I can’t say why, but patients claim they have the Wuhan Virus, but were never tested. One patient said that they had recovered from the virus four times.
Yeah, you’d think after the third bout the antibodies might stop a fourth.
I understand that in Europe, an infection plus one dose of vaccine counts as “fully vaccinated.” (This may vary by country; I’m not sure.) However, an infection that was not accompanied by a positive PCR test doesn’t count.
In order to claim they don’t need the vaccine.
Their actions need to be able to stand up to court challenge. If they go against experts they’d better have a much better reason for it than, “I thought I knew better,” especially since they themselves most likely hired the experts. (Too many betters there, but my thesaurus is down.)
None of the “experts” have “expertise” in anything except being bureaucrats.
That doesn’t make sense. Experts aren’t there to tell governors what to do. They are there to advise them on the consequences of various alternatives. Experts have narrow interests. Political governors have to consider wider interests. Experts should never, ever be in charge of policy.