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An Epidemic of Fear
Before you tune me out, I’m just going to make a couple of reasonable points. Japan is experiencing its worst COVID wave by far, measured by the number of cases. See pic below:
Impressive, isn’t it? Recall that December/January and May/June were unparalleled emergencies. They must all be dead by now… Except that is not at all what is happening; few are dying. See pic below:
Nevermind the obvious combined-day fluke in mid-May. That’s a data problem, not a problem-problem. Using your fingers and your common sense, look at the lag time between when a wave of cases hits and when a wave of deaths hits. I see two possibilities:
- This is a highly contagious (or at least highly spread, due to the Olympics) variant which is far less lethal than “usual.”
- This is an epidemic of testing (due to the Olympics) which reveals that COVID is far less lethal than is usually *measured*.
At any rate, this is absolutely not a killer wave laying waste to the countryside. The (seven-day moving average) daily death rate is still lower than it was on any day between the two previous large waves.
Looking at the United States shows a situation which may or may not be the same — it looks similar but is too early to tell — the current wave is just over half what the “great wave” of Dec/Jan was, yet deaths are only at a fifth. Still, deaths will lag, we’re not as far into this wave as Japan is, and I assume a greater variability in requirements and behaviors — this will spread the wave out for both cases and deaths, so I won’t leap to any conclusions.
So Japan is definitely not seeing a crisis of lethality, and the United States may or may not see oncoming; it certainly isn’t here yet and is not so far indicated.
“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself!” This means of course that the resulting shrinkage of will, of options, of activity on behalf of a frightened population is worse than the thing which frightened them. That’s how terrorism works.
“Never sign a contract with a person who will benefit from breaking it.” Perverse incentives are those which drive behavior counter to intended, anticipated, or stated goals. Our government at all levels may have a vested interest in suppressing the populace. The police certainly believe in the value of guns, but they almost unanimously do not want the citizenry armed. Sure, that’s a special pleading of theirs because they (may) disproportionately bear the burden of widely available firepower. But this should not impinge upon the rights of a free people.
Somewhat similarly, the ability of our Feral Government to issue magic money means that there is no downside for either local or central government to crush the economy while exercising power, control, authority. Every government trends this way — no bogeyman is needed in order to believe that governments are predictable animals of power. Every organization experiences a need to grow — it is in the DNA of human organizations. “Oh, but they lose tax revenues!” Nope. I’ll wager that they make it up in reduced expenditures and grants of magic “emergency” money.
Anyway, we were cautioned by The Founders (insert heavenly chord here) to guard our liberty jealously, particularly against the depredations of the government they created and attempted to restrain at the same time. The restraints have all come loose, but the principle of seeking at every turn to limit the power of the government, particularly the Feds, is more important for it.
Every cession of rights to the government is predicated upon an emergency. Like socialism, serfdom may be entered voluntarily, but we’ll have to shoot our way out. Our government treats us like subjects, not citizens, and acts of its own to erase our borders, obliterate our language, and now to suppress our heritage right down to our genes.
COVID passports are a good place to resist, just because.
One of my favorite memes is of a Gadsden flag with the Molon Labe imagery as well, with the thoughtful explanation “BECAUSE **** YOU, THAT’S WHY”.
But I figured I owed a better explanation than that among friends.
Published in General
Dang. Couple of minutes and this thing has more likes than my day-old “Kinda” post. Yay, Fear!
I forgot to mention a third possibility — the “fuse” could be much longer on dying of the new coof, given the same lethality. But I doubt it on its face.
Awesome post. In several ways. You always bring a fresh perspective.
Never thought of it from that angle. The media are now the terrorists. They don’t even need real events anymore. They make them up. They create them.
This scene from the brilliant film, Network is pertinent.
Is it time to panic, yet?
Not hardly.
The leadership of my model-making club cancelled this month’s meeting due to Covid fears. Two things to note:
So, I sent out an e-mail to the membership announcing a “Not the Official Model Club Meeting” at the same time as place as our normal meeting. Let those who choose to come, come, and those that choose to cower, cower. So far several regulars have said they will be there.
After I finish streaming Lucifer….
Over 35 years in warehousing and I never used profanity. This is one time where I may use it.
Naturally, I encourage you to continue not using profanity. But this one is special :-)
Main Feed. Gracias!
Lots of cases but many fewer deaths per infection is norm for the developed world. COVID has been rigidly seasonal in pretty well-defined regional waves. The southern tier of the US had a big wave in late July to mid-August last year. Another wave there at the exact same time but far fewer deaths.
The UK has been almost all delta for six months–same outcome, vastly fewer deaths despite huge numbers of reported positives. However, South Africa and Brazil have seen much bigger death count with this wave. I surmise that (a) vaccines really did reduce deaths (b) a bigger chunk of the most vulnerable got hit and wiped out early in Europe and North America and/or (c) there are now generally better more effective COVID treatments in wealthier nations (despite CDC/FDA/HIH “guidance”?). The red circle is the for peaks that did not happen as would be expected if the delta variant were a bigger killer and we were similarly defenseless as in the spring of 2020. At the present rate, COVID-19’s coming final flu season in the USA might not match 2017-18 for fatalities.
Viruses which reproduce outrageously can kill their hosts. Viruses which kill their hosts too soon for contagion purposes are edged out by viruses which keep the host alive longer.
As I understand it, the initial”virulence” of a new variant outbreak is due to a fresh mutation which causes a great increase in reproduction, with the accompanying host lethality. The more widespread it is, the more opportunities it has to improve its performance through random mutation and natural selection — the virus all on its own becomes less lethal as each variant tends toward better performance. I believe this is what we see with the India variant of the CCP Virus.
Perhaps the most effective virus would keep you moving about and feeling fine, or as close as it could get to that while still reproducing madly. It would never kill you, and if it had its say, you would live forever as a factory for passing on boring viruses.