I Do Not Understand Covid Panic

 

I don’t get the level of panic that surrounds Covid-19. This particular disease has a mortality rate on the order of 2% or less (and apparently declining), yet government and other organizations and people of influence are acting as though the disease has a mortality rate at least an order of magnitude higher than that. They are acting as though Covid has Ebola-level mortality (approx. 50%). And too many people are going along with this excessive panic. Most of the Covid-19 mortality is in particular demographic groups. For younger adults the mortality rate is barely measurable, and for children the mortality rate is essentially zero.

Yet in the name of this disease from which the vast majority of people recover, especially younger people, governments and others have required, and continue to require, that almost everyone to change their lives in ways big and small. People are required to reduce (and in some cases eliminate) their interactions with other people. Rules explicit and implicit require people to alter how they interact with other people, changing some of the basic features of our society. Schools have significantly altered schooling and even the entire childhood experience for children. Schools have made some rules so difficult that they have effectively cut some children off from school altogether.

Governments (aided and abetted by influential organizations and people) have put the economy into shambles. People can’t get even rudimentary tasks completed because of shortages of things and people.

Governments are limiting what people can say and who can speak in public and in private (enlisting organizations and people to carry out the details).

Governments and employers are requiring people to be injected with a vaccine that has not been fully tested nor officially approved*. We assume but do not know there will be no long-term consequences that might appear in years down the road. What happens as vaccinated women grow children?

I might consider these extensive and costly responses reasonable for a disease that kills a significant proportion of the people it infects. Covid-19 does not**. Yet government, media, and other powerful groups and people act as though every case of Covid is a death, and we should be writing the obituary of anyone who gets Covid.

Yes, people die of Covid, and I would prefer they not. But the reaction of government and of others in positions of power and influence seems way out of proportion to the risks the disease poses. We seem to suffering through a panic hype that is causing a lot of harm. Other than trying to calm down a few of my personal friends, I wish there was a way to get people to look at the actual risks, not the government and media induced panic.

* I know, in many cases, people can avoid vaccination requirements by receiving frequent and intrusive tests, which has its own problems.

**at least unless the person is in particular demographic and health groups

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  1. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    There is an alternative hypothesis to explain some of the reaction.

    I didn’t come up with it myself. The question is “stupid, or evil.” When someone is doing something apparently inexplicable, these are a couple of viable options.

    Maybe a lot of people are just stupid. They believe the hype. Maybe many people in the media are quite stupid, unable to understand math or to quantify risks.

    Of course, “both” is another possible explanation.

    I can go with “stupid” for media. Media have demonstrated many times that they don’t understand math, and seem to be incapable of quantifying risks.

    Government (at least federal government) is more questionable. Clearly people of high position in the federal government understand that Covid is a low-risk disease, since they are allowing tens of thousands of illegal immigrants to roam the U.S. freely without any knowledge about the Covid status of those illegal immigrants.

    I’ve dealt with people like that in high positions.  I go with Jerry with “both” as an explanation.  It’s surprising how unimpressive some of those people are when you meet them.  I’ll add another factor – they are also bureaucrats and for most of them looking after what they see as their best interests (which they define in their minds as the same as the public interest) and how to best avoid any accountability drives their decision making.

    • #31
  2. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    I agree that the response, panic, and reporting has been a disaster.

    A note on the 2% issue.  This is a pretty useless disease to use an overall figure on since the risk profile is so dramatically different in each age group.  Covid is less deadly than the flu is you are under 20 and more deadly if you are 65+.

    Here are the current fatality rates by age group in Arizona where I live.  Note this is the maximum rate because it only counts known cases in the denominator.  One the other hand it is probably a reasonable surrogate for “I’m sick enough to know I’ve got something“.

    0-19  0.02%

    20-44 0.19%

    45-54  0.9%

    55-64  2.6%

    65+  11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    Maricopa County, with 60% of the state’s population, further breaks down the situation in Long Term Care facilities where the fatality rate is 27%.  Doing the math it results in a fatality rate of 9% and hospitalization rate of 20% if you are 65+ and not in LTC, which, for me, is an appreciable risk.

    This is pretty consistent with the national numbers.  Instead of draconian widespread restrictions we should have focused on risk and protection of 65+ and those with significant co-morbidities like diabetes and heart disease.  We knew this by the spring of 2020.  It also would have meant older folks like me curtailing activities with potential exposure and younger family members limiting time with us because of risk.  DeSantis in Florida seems to have done a fairly good job so far by this type of focus.

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

    The other problem is that it was posited that one outcome was almost no one would die from covid if it was handled “correctly” when the truth is this is a transmissible virus and it was going to do its thing regardless, though we could help blunt some, but only some, of its impact.

     

    • #32
  3. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    65+  11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    It’s worth pointing out over half of the Covid deaths nationwide were 75 or older. It is really the new pneumonia. Pneumonia has been a traditional killer of the elderly and extremely infirm. 

    Again, it boils down to your immune system. I got Covid in December, when I was 65.  For me it was a moderate chest cold. However, in 2018 I had to go to the E-room overnight for a Covid-like illness. I suspect that it was a Covid and that is one reason my case was so mild in December. My body’s immune system was up to the challenge and had faced something similar shortly before.

    If I get the Delta variant this year or next I suspect it will be even milder than the last case. That’s how viruses work. If I get it when I am 91? It would probably kill me because by then a common cold would kill me.

    • #33
  4. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    65+ 11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    It’s worth pointing out over half of the Covid deaths nationwide were 75 or older. It is really the new pneumonia. Pneumonia has been a traditional killer of the elderly and extremely infirm.

    Again, it boils down to your immune system. I got Covid in December, when I was 65. For me it was a moderate chest cold. However, in 2018 I had to go to the E-room overnight for a Covid-like illness. I suspect that it was a Covid and that is one reason my case was so mild in December. My body’s immune system was up to the challenge and had faced something similar shortly before.

    If I get the Delta variant this year or next I suspect it will be even milder than the last case. That’s how viruses work. If I get it when I am 91? It would probably kill me because by then a common cold would kill me.

    I think that is correct though covid has a higher mortality rate than flu even for 75+.  Based on the Maricopa data and other national data I looked at the risk for my wife and I (70 and in reasonably good health) and estimated a 3-4% fatality risk and 10% hospitalization risk.

    • #34
  5. Unsk Member
    Unsk
    @Unsk

    Shouldn’t people be pushing back?

    For one of the first times in my life. sadly,  I have to say the people  of Europe are more courageous and much more brave than we Americans.

    Where are the protests equal to those in Europe of the destruction of our freedoms and the American Way of Life?

    I thought America was supposed to be Home of the Free and Land of the Brave. But I guess no more. 

     I want protests many times that of Europe and now! I want Congress, our Supreme Leader and the Federal bureaucracy quaking in their boots.  This destruction of our freedoms is an absolute atrocity and must stop now!

    We all need to wear yellow vests. 

    • #35
  6. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Django (View Comment):

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):

    Scott Wilmot (View Comment):

    Imagine the level of panic this man would exhibit if we got into an actual war. What an embarrassing display.

    Gross.

    What, does he think he’s an extra in a remake of the quarantine scene from E.T.?

    People in the Twitter comments say that it’s how the Philippines is handling Wu Flu and shields are mandatory. Secretary Austin’s protocol team should politely say, the Secretary is vaccinated and doesn’t require a shield or mask. Instead I received a note last night that masks are required indoors for everyone, regardless of vaccination status, in all DoD facilities in areas of substantial transmission. I had to dig around my truck to find one to play in this theater. Then my division boss has the audacity to add to the end of his message about the new requirement, “To those unvaccinated, Just. Get. The. Shot.”. Why? What benefit does it give? Vaccine or not I have to wear a mask.

    IIRC, the only real benefit is that it lessens the symptoms if you contract the virus. As one credible website pointed out the normal flu shot is about 60% effective, but also can make flu symptoms less severe. This week the CDC — stop laughing — said that vaccinated people who contract the virus and are asymptomatic can still spread the virus. Hence, masks for all.

    Now let’s check some of the lies we’ve been told:

    1. vaccines will allow a return to normality
    2. vaccines will prevent infection
    3. asymptomatic spread is not happening
    4. we will stop or greatly eliminate virus mutations if everyone is vaccinated because there will be no hosts for the virus
    5. Fauci knows best (OK; cheap shot, but I enjoyed it)

    No wonder I’m confused.

    It’s confusing. Some reports have said that the Delta variant is more contagious and more deadly. Most medical people say that isn’t how viruses work. They mutate to increase transmissibility but decrease lethality to improve the chance of propagating.

    • #36
  7. James Salerno Inactive
    James Salerno
    @JamesSalerno

    While there is a media narrative, I do not blame them. Following media is a personal decision. No, this is the logical conclusion to removing masculinity from society. As we are likely moving towards more lockdowns, I think the history books will look at this as the final tipping point in the death of the west. Panic and hysteria is seen as a virtue, while reason, stoicism and toughness is seen as toxic:

    A congressmen, also a veteran, is shedding tears on television because some unarmed trespassers entered the capital.

    College age students are given coloring books and special corners to sulk in because they cannot mentally cope with an election.

    Grown men are telling other grown men to “be safe” while performing death-defying tasks like picking up a pizza or going to the post office.

    Grown men are demanding mandatory vaccinations for a disease that carries virtually no risk to the healthy, while they themselves gorge their way towards type 2 diabetes.

    Millenials are diagnosed with fake mental illnesses and prescribed drugs because public speaking or talking to the opposite sex is a “traumatic” experience.

    And those are just a few examples off the top of my head. A society that only values safety becomes incapable of handling any conflict whatsoever. We are absolutely screwed if we run into a real insurrection, war, or disease.

    • #37
  8. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):
    It’s confusing. Some reports have said that the Delta variant is more contagious and more deadly.

    Odd. The actual data I have seen shows that the “Delta variant” is far less deadly than previous versions (deaths as a percentage of infected people), which as you note is consistent with other viruses. Perhaps those “more deadly” reports  illustrate the statistical illiteracy of media reporters? A more contagious virus infects more people, which might result in more total deaths, but a lower death rate. But many media people are too illiterate, and might misreport it as “more deadly.” 

    • #38
  9. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):
    It’s confusing. Some reports have said that the Delta variant is more contagious and more deadly.

    Odd. The actual data I have seen shows that the “Delta variant” is far less deadly than previous versions (deaths as a percentage of infected people), which as you note is consistent with other viruses. Perhaps those “more deadly” reports illustrate the statistical illiteracy of media reporters? A more contagious virus infects more people, which might result in more total deaths, but a lower death rate. But many media people are too illiterate, and might misreport it as “more deadly.”

    It was a few weeks ago and I think it could be because of illiteracy and trying to hype the variant. Others seem to have a lot invested in the government control and want to keep the power trip going.

    • #39
  10. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    DonG (2+2=5. Say it!) (View Comment):

    Django (View Comment):
    every third-rate journalist could get noticed by exaggerating one statistic

    This all reminds me of the Global Warming Hoax. You probably don’t know this, but all those scary predictions are based on stupid assumptions. One assumption is that power is generated with the efficiency of 1980 technology. In 1980 most CO2 came from crappy Soviet boilers that were about 10% efficient. Modern boilers are about 45% efficient! Computer design, computer control and amazing metal technology makes a new coal plant 4.5 times more efficient than the Global Warming people assume. Likewise, they assume we’ll give up LED lighting and fuel efficient jet engines. There are crazy assumptions about population exploding (reversing the trend). All of that produces crazy stats for headlines and researchers LOVE headlines. Headlines bring fame and more research money.

    And gas turbine power generation, which is one of the main benefits of fracking, can be up to 60%, so far, and the improvements continue as time passes.

    They also make other bad assumptions.  I’ve received forwarded emails from my benighted mother about how awful and selfish and wasteful people are with their big-screen TVs etc…  it took about a minute to show her that a big-screen HDTV takes a fraction of the power used by an old CRT TV.  Not that she cared.

    • #40
  11. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    There is an alternative hypothesis to explain some of the reaction.

    I didn’t come up with it myself. The question is “stupid, or evil.” When someone is doing something apparently inexplicable, these are a couple of viable options.

    Maybe a lot of people are just stupid. They believe the hype. Maybe many people in the media are quite stupid, unable to understand math or to quantify risks.

    Of course, “both” is another possible explanation.

    Well, it’s kind of “both,” or “and” if you prefer:  the evil people are telling the stupid people what they must do.

    • #41
  12. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    DonG (2+2=5. Say it!) (View Comment):

    Charlotte (View Comment):
    This is what has frustrated me to tears many times since March 2020. Where is everyone’s spine? Why are so few Americans saying eff-you to the powers that be? And I would honestly be shocked if the fatality rate was even as high as 2%. I’m guessing there are many thousands of mild, undiagnosed “cases” (barf) that aren’t reflected in that estimate.

    I was just complaining about this the other day. I was at an outdoor restaurant and some young guys (early 20’s) were wearing masks. In my teens and 20’s I did all kinds of stuff, because it was dangerous. Risky was cool. Drive fast. Drink excessively. Blow stuff up. Hell yah! Thinks sure have changed with young men. Once again Jesus was right: the meek shall inherit the earth.

    And then humanity dies out, because no matter what they SAY, women don’t want to have children with wimps.

    • #42
  13. Weeping Inactive
    Weeping
    @Weeping

    Hugh (View Comment):

    I think a lot of it falls into the “We Must Do Something!” category.

    And the “We Can’t Admit We Were Wrong” category.

    • #43
  14. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Unsk (View Comment):

    Shouldn’t people be pushing back?

    For one of the first times in my life. sadly, I have to say the people of Europe are more courageous and much more brave than we Americans.

    Where are the protests equal to those in Europe of the destruction of our freedoms and the American Way of Life?

    I thought America was supposed to be Home of the Free and Land of the Brave. But I guess no more.

    I want protests many times that of Europe and now! I want Congress, our Supreme Leader and the Federal bureaucracy quaking in their boots. This destruction of our freedoms is an absolute atrocity and must stop now!

    We all need to wear yellow vests.

    I dunno, I get the impression that Europeans are more prone to pointless protest, while Americans are more likely to just ignore the orders they are being given and just carry on.

    • #44
  15. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Unsk (View Comment):
    We all need to wear yellow vests.

    I think this is worth discussing seriously.

    What if we started a movement to wear a blue or yellow or green armband when we went out in public? A sea of law-abiding citizens making a constant statement against these restrictions. I think, over time, it would (a) catch on and (b) make lots of people think about it and possibly join the movement.

     

    • #45
  16. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

     

    [“this” being the very substantial difference in mortality between different age groups.] The overestimation of hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 is where I lost what little respect I had left for teachers’ unions. The teachers’ unions were claiming that going into a school building was a death sentence. But the vast majority of teachers are under 55 (with many in their 20s and 30s) and thus had an extremely small probability of having serious consequences from Covid-19. That they could not (or would not) correctly evaluate their risks illustrated that they were incompetent for teaching children.

    • #46
  17. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

     

    [“this” being the very substantial difference in mortality between different age groups.] The overestimation of hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 is where I lost what little respect I had left for teachers’ unions. The teachers’ unions were claiming that going into a school building was a death sentence. But the vast majority of teachers are under 55 (with many in their 20s and 30s) and thus had an extremely small probability of having serious consequences from Covid-19. That they could not (or would not) correctly evaluate their risks illustrated that they were incompetent for teaching children.

    well, teachers aren’t necessarily mathematicians or statisticians, and remember they were also being lied to by the politicians, and their unions.

    • #47
  18. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

     

    [“this” being the very substantial difference in mortality between different age groups.] The overestimation of hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 is where I lost what little respect I had left for teachers’ unions. The teachers’ unions were claiming that going into a school building was a death sentence. But the vast majority of teachers are under 55 (with many in their 20s and 30s) and thus had an extremely small probability of having serious consequences from Covid-19. That they could not (or would not) correctly evaluate their risks illustrated that they were incompetent for teaching children.

    well, teachers aren’t necessarily mathematicians or statisticians, and remember they were also being lied to by the politicians, and their unions.

    Don’t let the rank and file off the hook. I am sure there were many teachers that wanted to go back to in person, but in most districts it wasn’t a majority. 

    • #48
  19. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    I don’t think this latest panic is going to take hold. I work for a typical silicon valley unicorn startup that shut down before the mandates came down last year. We don’t have mask mandates in our offices now, and I haven’t heard rumblings about changing it.

    • #49
  20. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Here are the current fatality rates by age group in Arizona where I live.  Note this is the maximum rate because it only counts known cases in the denominator.  One the other hand it is probably a reasonable surrogate for “I’m sick enough to know I’ve got something“.

    0-19  0.02%

    20-44 0.19%

    45-54  0.9%

    55-64  2.6%

    65+  11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    Maricopa County, with 60% of the state’s population, further breaks down the situation in Long Term Care facilities where the fatality rate is 27%.  Doing the math it results in a fatality rate of 9% and hospitalization rate of 20% if you are 65+ and not in LTC, which, for me, is an appreciable risk.

    This is pretty consistent with the national numbers.  Instead of draconian widespread restrictions we should have focused on risk and protection of 65+ and those with significant co-morbidities like diabetes and heart disease.  We knew this by the spring of 2020.  It also would have meant older folks like me curtailing activities with potential exposure and younger family members limiting time with us because of risk.  DeSantis in Florida seems to have done a fairly good job so far by this type of focus.

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

     

    All of which makes it even more ridiculous that the most recent rounds of restrictions and mandates are being put on the least vulnerable people – children, military service members, young workers. 

    • #50
  21. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):
    All of which makes it even more ridiculous that the most recent rounds of restrictions and mandates are being put on the least vulnerable people – children, military service members, young workers. 

    What’s your point? This has been the theater of the absurd since May 2020.

    • #51
  22. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    The U.S. Surgeon General is demonstrating a particularly virulent form of irrational hysteria when he says vaccinated people should wear masks for the sake of unvaccinated children, and out of doors as an “extra step” of protection. (Some are reporting his words as calling for wearing masks at home around your own children, but that’s not how I read his words.) Actions such as those provide at most infinitesimal additional benefit in situations that already have virtually zero risk. Does the surgeon general use a car that has a built-in roll cage to provide that extra step of crash protection for himself and his passengers? Does everyone in the car wear a 5 point belt harness for that extra step of protection in case of a crash? Does he wear knee pads, elbow pads, and wrist guards when he walks to provide that extra step of protection should he trip and fall? Does he wipe down with sanitizing solution every surface that he has touched before anyone else might touch it? As the benefit to cost ratio diminishes, incurring those costs makes less and less sense. 

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/us-surgeon-general-vaccinated-people-masks-outdoors-extra-step-protect-others

    Government officials are giving us daily ever more reasons to refuse to take seriously anything they say.

    • #52
  23. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):
    All of which makes it even more ridiculous that the most recent rounds of restrictions and mandates are being put on the least vulnerable people – children, military service members, young workers.

    What’s your point? This has been the theater of the absurd since May 2020.

    Well, that it’s getting more absurd.

    • #53
  24. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):
    Actions such as those provide at most infinitesimal additional benefit in situations that already have virtually zero risk.

    It’s actually worse than that. It offers negative benefits. Long-term mask wearing is bad for your health. For example, the blood draw for my annual physical showed elevated levels of CO2 in my blood. I had been wearing a mask for two hour prior to getting the blood drawn. Since I lacked any other symptoms of lung disease (consistent with the elevated CO2 levels) my doctor concluded it was due to breathing through the mask for that length of time. 

    Basically you should only wear a mask when the danger from not wearing a mask exceeds the danger of wearing one, and you should wear it as briefly as possible. 

    OSHA has regulations regarding masks in the workplace which have been routinely ignored since “Two weeks to stop the spread” started. 

    • #54
  25. Bill Berg Coolidge
    Bill Berg
    @Bill Berg

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    I agree that the response, panic, and reporting has been a disaster.

    A note on the 2% issue. This is a pretty useless disease to use an overall figure on since the risk profile is so dramatically different in each age group. Covid is less deadly than the flu is you are under 20 and more deadly if you are 65+.

    Here are the current fatality rates by age group in Arizona where I live. Note this is the maximum rate because it only counts known cases in the denominator. One the other hand it is probably a reasonable surrogate for “I’m sick enough to know I’ve got something“.

    0-19 0.02%

    20-44 0.19%

    45-54 0.9%

    55-64 2.6%

    65+ 11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    Maricopa County, with 60% of the state’s population, further breaks down the situation in Long Term Care facilities where the fatality rate is 27%. Doing the math it results in a fatality rate of 9% and hospitalization rate of 20% if you are 65+ and not in LTC, which, for me, is an appreciable risk.

    This is pretty consistent with the national numbers. Instead of draconian widespread restrictions we should have focused on risk and protection of 65+ and those with significant co-morbidities like diabetes and heart disease. We knew this by the spring of 2020. It also would have meant older folks like me curtailing activities with potential exposure and younger family members limiting time with us because of risk. DeSantis in Florida seems to have done a fairly good job so far by this type of focus.

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

    The other problem is that it was posited that one outcome was almost no one would die from covid if it was handled “correctly” when the truth is this is a transmissible virus and it was going to do its thing regardless, though we could help blunt some, but only some, of its impact.

     

    MAYBE more deadly if you are over 65. At 20, your death rate from all sources  is 0.001146 at 70 it is 0.022889. This is from the SSA, which has a big interest in understanding death rates. 
    The “Covid deaths” are generally overstated because if a 70 year old with cancer, heart disease, etc dies and tests positive for Covid, that is marked as the “cause”.  “Excess Deaths” is good to look at. 

    • #55
  26. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Coolidge
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    Bill Berg (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    I agree that the response, panic, and reporting has been a disaster.

    A note on the 2% issue. This is a pretty useless disease to use an overall figure on since the risk profile is so dramatically different in each age group. Covid is less deadly than the flu is you are under 20 and more deadly if you are 65+.

    Here are the current fatality rates by age group in Arizona where I live. Note this is the maximum rate because it only counts known cases in the denominator. One the other hand it is probably a reasonable surrogate for “I’m sick enough to know I’ve got something“.

    0-19 0.02%

    20-44 0.19%

    45-54 0.9%

    55-64 2.6%

    65+ 11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    Maricopa County, with 60% of the state’s population, further breaks down the situation in Long Term Care facilities where the fatality rate is 27%. Doing the math it results in a fatality rate of 9% and hospitalization rate of 20% if you are 65+ and not in LTC, which, for me, is an appreciable risk.

    This is pretty consistent with the national numbers. Instead of draconian widespread restrictions we should have focused on risk and protection of 65+ and those with significant co-morbidities like diabetes and heart disease. We knew this by the spring of 2020. It also would have meant older folks like me curtailing activities with potential exposure and younger family members limiting time with us because of risk. DeSantis in Florida seems to have done a fairly good job so far by this type of focus.

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

    The other problem is that it was posited that one outcome was almost no one would die from covid if it was handled “correctly” when the truth is this is a transmissible virus and it was going to do its thing regardless, though we could help blunt some, but only some, of its impact.

     

    MAYBE more deadly if you are over 65. At 20, your death rate from all sources is 0.001146 at 70 it is 0.022889. This is from the SSA, which has a big interest in understanding death rates.
    The “Covid deaths” are generally overstated because if a 70 year old with cancer, heart disease, etc dies and tests positive for Covid, that is marked as the “cause”. “Excess Deaths” is good to look at.

    Actually it’s definitely more deadly than the flu for 65+.  If you look at how the CDC calculates flu deaths you’ll find that it is even more sketchy and likely to overestimate deaths than the methodology for covid deaths so on an apples to apples comparison I think it pretty clear.

     

    • #56
  27. Mister Dog Coolidge
    Mister Dog
    @MisterDog

    Scott Wilmot (View Comment):

    Imagine the level of panic this man would exhibit if we got into an actual war. What an embarrassing display.

    Man, that’s the video definition of pathetic.

    • #57
  28. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Bill Berg (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    I agree that the response, panic, and reporting has been a disaster.

    A note on the 2% issue. This is a pretty useless disease to use an overall figure on since the risk profile is so dramatically different in each age group. Covid is less deadly than the flu is you are under 20 and more deadly if you are 65+.

    Here are the current fatality rates by age group in Arizona where I live. Note this is the maximum rate because it only counts known cases in the denominator. One the other hand it is probably a reasonable surrogate for “I’m sick enough to know I’ve got something“.

    0-19 0.02%

    20-44 0.19%

    45-54 0.9%

    55-64 2.6%

    65+ 11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    Maricopa County, with 60% of the state’s population, further breaks down the situation in Long Term Care facilities where the fatality rate is 27%. Doing the math it results in a fatality rate of 9% and hospitalization rate of 20% if you are 65+ and not in LTC, which, for me, is an appreciable risk.

    This is pretty consistent with the national numbers. Instead of draconian widespread restrictions we should have focused on risk and protection of 65+ and those with significant co-morbidities like diabetes and heart disease. We knew this by the spring of 2020. It also would have meant older folks like me curtailing activities with potential exposure and younger family members limiting time with us because of risk. DeSantis in Florida seems to have done a fairly good job so far by this type of focus.

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

    The other problem is that it was posited that one outcome was almost no one would die from covid if it was handled “correctly” when the truth is this is a transmissible virus and it was going to do its thing regardless, though we could help blunt some, but only some, of its impact.

    MAYBE more deadly if you are over 65. At 20, your death rate from all sources is 0.001146 at 70 it is 0.022889. This is from the SSA, which has a big interest in understanding death rates.
    The “Covid deaths” are generally overstated because if a 70 year old with cancer, heart disease, etc dies and tests positive for Covid, that is marked as the “cause”. “Excess Deaths” is good to look at.

    No- this has been debunked ad infinitum-death with COVID isn’t counted as death from COVID

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/debunking-the-false-claim-that-covid-death-counts-are-inflated1/

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/

    • #58
  29. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Bill Berg (View Comment):
    This is from the SSA, which has a big interest in understanding death rates. 

    Doesn’t Social Security keep sending money each month to people who, according to their reported birth dates, must be like 120 years old?

    • #59
  30. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Bill Berg (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    I agree that the response, panic, and reporting has been a disaster.

    A note on the 2% issue. This is a pretty useless disease to use an overall figure on since the risk profile is so dramatically different in each age group. Covid is less deadly than the flu is you are under 20 and more deadly if you are 65+.

    Here are the current fatality rates by age group in Arizona where I live. Note this is the maximum rate because it only counts known cases in the denominator. One the other hand it is probably a reasonable surrogate for “I’m sick enough to know I’ve got something“.

    0-19 0.02%

    20-44 0.19%

    45-54 0.9%

    55-64 2.6%

    65+ 11.4%

    If you are diagnosed with covid and you are 65+ your mortality risk is almost 60X that of someone between 20-44 and 600X of someone under 20.

    Maricopa County, with 60% of the state’s population, further breaks down the situation in Long Term Care facilities where the fatality rate is 27%. Doing the math it results in a fatality rate of 9% and hospitalization rate of 20% if you are 65+ and not in LTC, which, for me, is an appreciable risk.

    This is pretty consistent with the national numbers. Instead of draconian widespread restrictions we should have focused on risk and protection of 65+ and those with significant co-morbidities like diabetes and heart disease. We knew this by the spring of 2020. It also would have meant older folks like me curtailing activities with potential exposure and younger family members limiting time with us because of risk. DeSantis in Florida seems to have done a fairly good job so far by this type of focus.

    By failing to focus on this early on we needlessly panicked a lot of people (if you look at polling, people overestimate hospitalization and fatality rates for those under 50 by a large amount) and often failed to do what we could to protect the most vulnerable.

    The other problem is that it was posited that one outcome was almost no one would die from covid if it was handled “correctly” when the truth is this is a transmissible virus and it was going to do its thing regardless, though we could help blunt some, but only some, of its impact.

    MAYBE more deadly if you are over 65. At 20, your death rate from all sources is 0.001146 at 70 it is 0.022889. This is from the SSA, which has a big interest in understanding death rates.
    The “Covid deaths” are generally overstated because if a 70 year old with cancer, heart disease, etc dies and tests positive for Covid, that is marked as the “cause”. “Excess Deaths” is good to look at.

    No- this has been debunked ad infinitum-death with COVID isn’t counted as death from COVID

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/debunking-the-false-claim-that-covid-death-counts-are-inflated1/

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/

    Except, except, I have talked to doctors in hospitals saying this very thing is going on and they have seen it.

    And I know a couple, both diagnosed with COVID-19 when they gave up standing in line for their COVID test.

    I don’t trust the articles. I don’t trust the CDC. I don’t trust anyone in authority anymore because they have openly lied (and have admitted it) and made bad call after bad call. Masks don’t work and that is clear from actual data around the world, but they want us in them again.

    Besides, the hospital, getting reimbursed for the death by COVID can just lie. Someone dies of pneumonia and were positive for COVID? COVID death. Someone already with congestive heart failure and a positive test (by way overemotive tests by the way)? Covid.  Sorry, I don’t trust people not to lie to make money.

    Sorry, man, before I believe links like you post, I have to trust the people in power again. I don’t.

    • #60
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