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Trump Is Winning Because He Taps Into Issues No One Else Will Tackle
At The Federalist, Dan McLaughlin (aka the Baseball Crank) discusses the phenomenon of the Donald Trump candidacy from the perspective of military strategy. If nothing else, it is a great primer on military strategist and aircraft designer John (“Forty Second”) Boyd, one of the most remarkable men to ever woIk at the Pentagon. Using Boyd’s principles, McLaughlin explains both why Trump has been a success so far, but also how he may eventually fail.
My overall take is that McLaughlin is overthinking Trump. While Trump has certainly shown far more political skill than his detractors give him credit for, I don’t think he would have skyrocketed to the top if he hadn’t hitched his ride to a number of pre-existing issues and trends. How much of this was deliberate strategy and how much pure luck I can only guess, but I suspect that Donald Trump is genuinely surprised by how well things are going. Regardless, I see three underlying issues propelling Trump forward. In descending order of importance, they are: immigration, the GOP establishment, and Political Correctness.
Immigration: Trump championed this issue right out of the gate. Until he announced his candidacy, both parties favoured more immigration (minus a few recalcitrant Republicans like Senator Jeff Sessions). The Democrats wanted to increase their voter base and the mainstream Republicans wanted to satisfy the cheap labour lobby. This issue was ripe for the plucking and Donald Trump plucked it. I think there is little doubt that Trump would not be leading the pack if he weren’t championing this cause.
The GOP Establishment: This is closely related to the immigration issue. The voters — not just Republican voters, but a strong majority of American voters — want immigration curtailed, while the Republican Party steadfastly refuses to do so.
While some voters can be fooled some of the time, the voters as a whole tend to get their way after they wake up. Because in a democracy, numbers count. Smart politicians understand this. Many in the GOPe are not smart. They think they can win a contest of will with the people. The logical conclusion of this contest will be fewer dumb politicians. This is already beginning. Eric Cantor and John Boehner, for example, are both gone but they won’t be the last dumb politicians to see their careers destroyed before this business is finally over.
And it isn’t just immigration. Take Rep. Paul Ryan’s recent budget deal, a conglomeration of everything that Republican voters hate about the Republican Party. Ryan became Speaker of the House because his predecessor’s tenure simply became untenable but –with this deal — Ryan is copying the most despised aspects of Boehner’s governing philosophy. His days are now numbered as well.
It is no accident that the top four Presidential candidates — Trump, Cruz, Carson, and Rubio — are outsiders. While Rubio is touted as an establishment figure, he came to national prominence by challenging a sitting governor of his own party for the Senate. It is a mark of their desperation that Rubio is the straw that the Establishment clings to now. In the same way, it is no accident that the Jeb Bush, the establishment Republican of this election cycle, currently gets support from less than 5 percent of Republican voters in recent polls, despite the $100 million he raised.
In normal times, the insiders can say, “Look, we may be grubby and compromised but we know how to get things done in Washington.” The fecklessness of the Republican Congressional leadership has undercut this justification. Feckless, duplicitous, and utterly incompetent: the perfect mix of qualities for a stock villain.
Political Correctness: I have long held that opposition to Political Correctness is political low-hanging fruit that nobody has yet picked. Until now. You can see this issue resonate every time Donald Trump says something controversial. The media and the pundits — including many conservative standard-bearers — declare that Trump’s much-awaited implosion has arrived. But then, the opposite happens and Trump claims even higher in the polls as he refuses to back down. What is happening is that Trump has stumbled upon the right strategy for slaying Political Correctness. Instead of being perplexed why Trump gains support even though he refuses to apologize, his critics should be studying him for tactical lessons.
Trump gains by defying PC norms because everybody – and I mean almost everybody across the political spectrum, from left-of-center liberals, to low information voters, to hard-core conservatives — hates Political Correctness. It is unfair, oppressive, and gets more odious by the day as its injunctions evolve to become ever more ridiculous. Stand against it, like Trump, and you will be the hero.
If the Republicans really want to stop Trump, they should hug him on these issues. If they can put no daylight between themselves and The Donald on them, these strengths will have been neutralized, and they can be free to attack Trump’s actual weaknesses. Radio hosts Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin understand this.
Only one Republican politician does. His name is Ted Cruz.
Published in Culture, Domestic Policy, Immigration, Politics
Good analyses and I agree with your comment about whether Trump is lucky or good. A case can be made for both, but I lean toward lucky.
I don’t think there is as much in common between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, especially on immigration, as many perceive.
Where they do share common ground is being mostly reviled by incumbent republicans and that seems to be working their favor.
I would agree with the points you’ve made in your post.
I’ve been watching the PBS-produced Ken Burns miniseries on the Roosevelts, and it’s very interesting. I can’t help seeing some parallels between Teddy Roosevelt and Donald Trump in terms of how they are perceived by the public and their public speaking style.
I think people who are drawn to Trump’s candidacy have in common a general mistrust of the mainstream media’s everything-is-lovely news accounts. That’s why they are rejecting the perceived establishment candidates.
I would much prefer Mitt Romney. It is bizarre that Republicans have essentially rejected Romney and embraced Trump. The ironies abound. :) Mitt Romney was talking about immigration policy problems ten years ago.
I agree with everything written here, particularly the latter paragraph. I’d chalk that one up to a disdain for candidates who are true gentlemen and patricians. You know me however; I have a tendency to support all businesspeople- Perot, Romney, Fiorina, Trump- regardless of their table manners. :)
I thoroughly agree with the comparison between Trump and TR; they both share a certain ebullience, bravado, and unabashed egoism that has been missing in American politics since RWR.
I’m enjoying the fact that there are still American citizens who seem to yearn for those qualities!
Luck only gets to part of it. Good is sustaining it and embracing it.
Winning is figuring out the next step in the game.
Yes, in that political correctness is awful. No, in that Trump is one of those people who can’t tell the difference between speaking uncomfortable truths and being a boor. Sure, it makes some people listen, but it also gives others an excuse to ignore the uncomfortable truth because the speaker sounds like Tiberius Gracchus from Queens.
Case in point: Trump’s asinine comments about banning all Muslims. As Kevin Williamson argued, there’s a responsible — and, I think convincing — way to make a case along those lines, but it’s now poison because everyone will just shout “You’re a racist just like Trump!”
Huh?
Tiberius Gracchus called for the redistribution of the re-confiscated public land to the poor and homeless in Rome.
He was no Donald Trump.
And Trump’s for redistribution to developers and Pfizer.
I own stock in Pfizer. :)
My impression is that people predisposed against Trump will take that view regardless of what Trump proposes. It is as if it is just too painful for these people to admit anything Trump proposes could be worth supporting.
Case in point: Your claim that a potentially good policy proposal has become “poison” just because leftists, liberals, the media, and conservative Trump haters now shout “You’re racist just like Trump!”? When did people shouting become the standard to decide if a proposal one finds plausible couldn’t be successfully reformulated?
Or Williamson’s complaint that “An excellent idea such as securing the southern border with a series of barriers becomes a batty proposition” just because Trump proposed a wall (Williamson then of courses caricatures the wall with fatuous “straw man” objections).
Or the other day, somebody on NRO claiming that people pining for leadership is really people pining for dictatorships!
Highly intelligent people unhinged, wanting to hate Trump over everything else, and for that reason, missing everything as well–it’s just the most fascinating spectacle of this political season.
Sure, but do you think it wasn’t poison before? “Forbid all non-citizen muslims from entering the country” was off limits in terms of media-approved policy discussions. It still is.
If issues really were his draw then he’d be offering something coherent and consistent as solutions. He’s not. All he offers is an emotional response. He’s turning the right into the left.
It’s not that surprising (although it is disappointing) to me to see people becoming figuratively unglued by Trump. Their entire life is dedicated to the proposition that they understand American politics.
If someone came along and demonstrated that gravity didn’t exist I’d bet physicists would start to come unglued too.
True. We on the right have overestimated the average voter for many years.
I am not sure Trump’s position statements are that much worse than what everyone else has on their buffet: Tax, 2nd Amendment, Veterans Admin, Immigration.
I think his tax plan is marginally better than Ted Cruz and much better than Rubio’s.
You and I are both concerned with the veteran’s admin and if there was anyone in the race I would trust to straighten out that mess I give Trump consideration for the job (maybe he joins someone else’s cabinet?)
The big one is immigration and until the others figure it out and Prince Rubio gets with the program this is going to be the issue.
I think you are correct the majority of his support is emotional and outrage driven. I think it is incorrect to say his published position are not coherent and consistent.
Not quite: I’m claiming that we’re making their job even easier by conforming to stereotype.
It was a fraught position before; it’s worse now.
Agree. The Trump phenomenon is much more interesting than Donald J.
I don’t find in him the quality of a person I would trust on such things. “I’d hire the best people” is so far from reality as to be rightly considered satire. I’m no fan of incrimentalism, but it’s the only viable way to change the behemoth other than revolution. I don’t find Trump capable of either.
But I do think it correct to say that his published positions are not the same as what he claims he’ll do, and if any are, they still are implausible at best.
Why? Given recent events this doesn’t seem wholly unreasonable.
Except they want to stop Trump because of his positions on these issues. That much is becoming clear to me.
At this point, if GOPe candidates started hugging Trump on issues, I would have strong suspicion they didn’t mean it anyway. Too late. GOPe is behind the curve again.
This is a revolt, and I’m happy to be seen as revolting by the likes of these clowns.
Prudence is the most hated of the virtues. It doesn’t allow for unthinking doctrinaire stupidity.
You and I have always seen differently on incremental vs. revolutionary change.
I think his record in public works and private enterprise support his being able to turn the VA around. His patriotism and support for veterans seems very strong and it is a high visibility turnaround job.
I am confident we agree there are few things he loves as much as visibility.
The few statements of his I’ve watched are consistent with your position. He tends to go off the reservation from what is on the web site.
Republican voters have come to distrust the Official Party Line: “Of course, we must first secure the border. Then, and only then, can we deal with the millions who are here illegally in a manner consistent with Our Conservative Values (TM).” They’ve heard this line so many times, and seen that how it works in practice is that the border remains open and more cheap labor is imported.
Compared to the empty Republican rhetoric, Trump’s “Build a wall and deport them” sounds like an actual plan.
The base also sees that the Republicans really come through for Megabanks (in the 2014 Budget Deal) and Big Oil Companies (in the 2015 Budget Deal), but for the middle class… not so much.
After being screwed over by Republican politicians so consistently, a lot of people are willing to take a chance that Donald Trump might not.
I wish I believed that they will learn, and we will have fewer dumb politicians. I see them continue to follow the first buffalo off the cliff and learning very little.
Canadian Cincinnatus, fine job of summarizing the phenomena. I’m not a Trump fan at all but those issues you detailed resonate – I’m certain that encapsulates his success.
Look, I’d to persuade his supporters and nearly all of the digital ink has maligned and diminished them. We’re going to need them. That Kurt Schlichter Town-hall article was effective, Jonah Goldberg has been as well.
If the debate moderators, fellow candidates Fox News wants to take him out – ask for details! Push for details! He’s really not well informed at all. He’ll get ‘Great People’ – OK, this Carl Icon is the only name I’ve heard and sounds like he’ll be quite busy. Who else? Judges – who/why? The Donald will do the work for you. Bush could have (should have) laughed at him over the nuclear Triad, told him to spend more time studying than working on his comb-over, and done some real damage.
Ah focus more on insider useless but true jargon, and run even harder to be the guy who works for trump. That sounds…. effective.
Poor managers of information have no business running any organization of scale.
Trump is cleaning up because he is focusing on BHAGs. Everybody else is arguing about why they can’t do things, or running to be a manager 2-3 tiers below trump. Deputy assistance secretary something or other.
The problem with Obama is he believed his own BS. The problem with Trump is he doesn’t even know his own BS.
I guess that means the rest of them know/believe their own BS?
Mr. Meyer, you have boldly missed the importance of Trump’s Muslim statement. He did not advocate banning Muslims, as everybody at NR constantly claims, and you affirm. He simply said that we should temporarily stop allowing immigration of a class of people that is at root antithetical to our civilization until our country can figure out what is really going on with regards to the murderous component of that group.
A huge majority of our citizens really don’t care about the feelings of third-world miscreants entering our country, and they care even less about political navel-gazing pronouncements about how Trump is racist, a blowhard, unworthy of high office, demeans our nation’s values, and will destroy America as we know it. They do care about the USA and who we really are.
So, sniffing ineffectually about how the feelings of murderous non-citizens buried within an alien immigrating cohort are important, that these aliens deserve a modicum of US constitutional protection, that race is involved, and that there are important political considerations at stake, is absurd.
Until some of these truths are absorbed, such annoying head scratching over Trump will continue.
Mr. Meyer, you have boldly missed the importance of Trump’s Muslim statement. He did not advocate banning Muslims, as everybody at NR constantly claims, and you affirm. He simply said that we should temporarily stop allowing immigration of a class of people that is at root antithetical to our civilization until our country can figure out what is really going on with regards to the murderous component of that group.
A huge majority of our citizens really don’t care about the feelings of third-world miscreants entering our country, and they care even less about political navel-gazing pronouncements about how Trump is racist, a blowhard, unworthy of high office, demeans our nation’s values, and will destroy America as we know it. They do care about the USA and who we really are.
So, sniffing ineffectually about how the feelings of murderous non-citizens buried within an alien immigrating cohort are important, that these aliens deserve a modicum of US constitutional protection, that race is somehow involved, and that there are important political considerations at stake, is absurd.
Until some of these truths are absorbed, the head scratching over Trump will continue.