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Jeb Unveils Latest Innovation in the Campaign Arms Race
This is cheeky:
DES MOINES, Iowa — Jeb Bush is preparing to embark on an experiment in presidential politics: delegating many of the nuts-and-bolts tasks of seeking the White House to a separate political organization that can raise unlimited amounts of campaign cash.
The concept, in development for months as the former Florida governor has raised tens of millions of dollars for his Right to Rise super PAC, would endow that organization not just with advertising on Bush’s behalf, but with many of the duties typically conducted by a campaign.
Should Bush move ahead as his team intends, it is possible that for the first time a super PAC created to support a single candidate would spend more than the candidate’s campaign itself – at least through the primaries. Some of Bush’s donors believe that to be more than likely.
The architects of the plan believe the super PAC’s ability to raise unlimited amounts of money legally outweighs its primary disadvantage, that it cannot legally coordinate its actions with Bush or his would-be campaign staff.
I really must grant Jeb credit for creativity. I wonder what the failure modes might be?
The strategy aims to take maximum advantage of the new world of campaign finance created by a pair of 2010 Supreme Court decisions and counts on the Federal Election Commission to remain a passive regulator with little willingness to confront those pushing the envelope of the law.
For Bush, the potential benefits are enormous. Campaigns can raise only $2,700 per donor for the primary and $2,700 for the general election. But super PACs are able to raise unlimited cash from individuals, corporations and groups such as labor unions.
The main limitation on super PACs is that they cannot coordinate their activities with a campaign. The risk for Bush is that his super PAC will not have access to the candidate and his senior strategists to make pivotal decisions about how to spend the massive amount of money it will take to win the Republican nomination and, if successful, secure the 270 electoral votes he will need to follow his father and brother into the White House.
Of course this means that every other serious GOP candidate must attempt to replicate the machine that Jeb just constructed. I suppose that some of them already are doing so, seeing how the everybody’s legal team must understand the implications of court rulings and – I expect – had been hearing rumors regarding Jeb’s strategy.
[Adopting German Laugh-in voice] Verrrry interesting.
Published in General
People will end up in jail over this. Nobody will believe that Jeb’s team is not directing the PAC. And they will find a connection, even if it does not exist.
Well, if they are Republicans they will end up in jail. Campaign laws do not apply to Democrats,* and I fear this gives Democrats another way to outspend Republicans.
* At least not if they are supporting the Democrats in power. If they run an insurgency candidacy the become “Republican” for legal purposes.
Seawriter
Democrats would love it if Jeb Bush were the nominee! Nary a peep will be uttered about his steamrolling the opposition – at least not until he grabs the nomination. At which point he can be accused of greed, lust, and sense of entitlement.
This makes me want to puke. Suuuure there will be no coordination. If this race becomes Bush/Clinton I’m going to just give up caring anymore.
I think this is a logical and inevitable result of our ridiculous campaign finance laws. If one side of the fence is able to raise unlimited funds while the other has a low cap, it was only a matter of time before the overfunded side began to usurp duties from the underfunded one.
And honestly, the notion of “no coordination” between campaign and superPAC has been a farce from day 1. Can anyone credibly claim that people with the same common goal, who know each other well for years and are constantly running into each other, can’t find ways of communicating with each other outside of meetings in hotel rooms and conference calls?
Perhaps this will help some people on the left understand that there is no way to stop the flow of money or information when the demand is high enough. Although I’m not holding my breath.
On the other hand, I’m not convinced this will help Jeb Bush.
Bush already has the reputation among all sides of the electorate as an insider, establishment, cronyist candidate. Playing insider parlor games to take better advantage of his Wall Street financing will only play up that weakness, both among Republican primary voters and the few undecideds in the general election.
Furthermore, Jeb’s focus on his campaign warchest suggests he might be missing a truism of American electoral politics: no amount of money can help an uninspiring candidate win. Money only helps those candidates whose other fundamentals are positive.
He is likely looking forward to a Hillary vs. Jeb encounter of two uninspiring candidates fighting a war of attrition. But if any of the primary candidates shows a modicum of actual political talent and attraction on the campaign trail, I am confident that Jeb will be toast long before the general election.
You have more optimism than I do. I hope those on the right are sick of what Jeb represents. Maybe we can have 8 Years Hillary, 8 years Jeb, 8 years Chelsea, and 8 years Jenna.
If Obama can claim he did not coordinate Lois Lerner’s activities in the IRS than how tough can it be to claim a candidate is not responsible for a super PAC.
As far as Democrats are concerned, laws, morality, ethics are things that happen to other people.
Already there.
Unless, of course, the primary voters are swayed by the fancy ad from Bush PAC with horses, I’m Proud to be an American playing, and a former marine slowly lifting his hand in salute to a giant flag while his face drops a single tear, followed by the name Jeb overlaid over all of this.
Then again, I think the primary voters would dislike the lack of subtlety.
You don’t have to sway voters, only vote counters.
You think Jeb is going to directly steal the election? I don’t think that will be the case. I think we might see the Mitt Romney scenario, wherein there is the rise and fall of every other candidate but Jeb, and then finally the primary voters choose Jeb.
Personally, I don’t think Jeb will get the nomination, but if he does it will only be after the rise and fall of all of the other candidates.
The only way Bush wins the nomination is by following Romney’s strategy: launch a relentless barrage of negative ads against the nearest challenger.
The problem is that he faces a lot stiffer competition than Romney did, and even if he does win, it really dampens enthusiasm for him in the general election.
Well, the prosecutor must prove the suspicion: incredulity is not the standard for conviction. At least not yet.
My guess, Jeb’s legal team has already worked out exactly how to skin this cat.
The Dems sure didn’t like losing to Jeb twice in FL. To be sure, Jeb lost the first time he ran. Afterward Jeb analyzed why he lost, learned from his mistakes and became a very conservative governor who could win against Democrats.
Please do not misunderstand me, I do not support Jeb because electing Jeb means a rerun of W’s amnesty attempt. That said, Jeb is akin to Scot Walker in that he knows how to persuade Democrats (or at least independent voters) to vote for him.
Good points all, but as any stock broker will tell you, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Yes, there was a time when Jeb knew how to persuade Dems and Independents, but after years of non-stop denigration, the Bush name might as well be Mud. In the eyes of many, Jeb is fruit from a poisoned tree.
True. Jeb is rusty. Hasn’t run for any office in a dozen years, so I expect Jeb will will have to learn some new things. That said, that’s why he has political consultants, to keep him from being surprised. Time will tell if any of this makes any difference.
This will be true unless Jeb can make the case that he is a different man than his dad and his brother. I think that is going to be a heavy lift. Not impossible, but it will be a stiff headwind.
Me Toooooo!