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The Illegal Immigration Question I’d Like To Hear
True to form, Jeb Bush went full throttle into to the “we can’t possibly deport 11 million illegal immigrants” zone, and quoted a rate of 500,000 per month. To be honest, he makes a reasonable point. The logistics of it are near impossible.
An Airbus A380 variant flown by Emirates Air can seat 615 people, the largest passenger capacity of any airline. It would require 813 flights of these behemoths every month (i.e, 27 a day) to move that many people. There are only 173 A380’s in service. Jeb may have been exercising hyperbole to support his position, but he isn’t off the mark.
Additionally, identifying and locating that many illegal aliens each month is near impossible and we have no method of doing so now.
Stepping away from the hyperbole, let’s give the candidates some operating room and say they have one term to deport the illegal aliens, which would mean about 200,000 a month. If a half million deportations per month is impossible, 200,000 is only barely achievable.
Relatedly, we need to be realistic about what “securing the border” means. One of my friends is a Texas State Trooper and was one of the first volunteers for the boat squadron that patrols the Rio Grande. His team works closely with US Border Patrol. I visited with him about the situation; suffice to say, border security isn’t as tough-minded as we often think. These days, being detained by Border Patrol doesn’t carry a threat of immediate deportation and is a big reason we continue to see thousands per week streaming into the country.
All that said, I have a scenario I want to pose to Ricochet that I wish was posed to the candidates.
Scenario
Leaving dinner on a Wednesday night, I make a legal left turn with a green arrow when a well-used Mercedes runs the light and hits me head on. No one is injured, but my SUV has to be towed away and — when all is said and done — I’m going to be out $7,000.
The Mercedes was driven by a young man with a young woman in the passenger seat. Neither of them speak English, and neither has a drivers license or any other form of identification. The car’s inspection and registration are both expired and there is no insurance. The girl in the passenger seat is pregnant, about four or five months along. They have little money.
A Spanish speaking officer is dispatched to the scene and one of the of the EMS technicians speaks Spanish. The driver and passenger are not married and admit to being here illegally. They are evasive about how they got here and whether they have relatives in the country or not.
The Question
Sir/Madam, in your administration, what will happen to these two?
If it is verified they are illegal aliens will they be allowed to stay or deported? If they are allowed to stay, will the woman receive publicly-funded healthcare for her pregnancy and child? If their child is born here, will he or she be granted American citizenship?
What I’d Like to Hear
In a Brent Administration, the young couple are taken into custody, their immigration status is determined, and they are turned over to ICE and held until deported. A process measured in days, not years.
They are allowed phone calls and — if family came to visit and found to be here illegally — they will be detained and deported also.
Once detained, they would not be temporarily released or allowed to gather their belongings, money, etc. This may seem rough treatment, but at least we aren’t going house to house doing no-knock raids as happened with Elian Gonzalez.
The Way Forward
This uncomfortable process garners immediate attention, makes people feel “unwelcome,” and challenges those here illegally. If they wish to return home on their own, they can take their possessions, money, family, etc. If they are stopped for so much as jaywalking they are interned in the criminal justice and ICE system until they are released outside our borders.
Not an easy choice and not intended to be. Breaking our laws should not be comfortable or without consequence.
If they elect to stay, live in the shadows, and seek employment for cash, they may do so, but there will be no legal acknowledgement or path to citizenship. Increased use of E-verify and raids on suspect businesses decrease the opportunities to better themselves. As soon as they step out of the shadows, into the purview of law enforcement, or try to get a birth certificate for a child, deportation begins as soon as they are identified without an opportunity to gather their family or possessions.
Summary
Jeb Bush is mostly correct: deporting that many illegal aliens isn’t practical. The steps to solve this crisis include, but not limited to:
- Real border enforcement (no more notices to appear or other hand receipts).
- No incentive to come illegally in the first place. No contorted 14th Amendment interpretation that extends citizenship to the children of these criminals.
- End forcing public education for illegal aliens.
- Conduct government business in English only.
- Increase E-verify and employer penalties
- Restrict repatriation of dollars by non-citizens.
Please note I did not include a wall funded by a third party. Rick Perry made a good point awhile back: build a 14′ wall and they make 15′ ladders. Of course he also supported in-state tuition for those who’d broken our immigration laws, so there was motivation for ladder manufacturing courtesy Rick Perry.
Giving illegal immigrants the opportunity and motivation to self-deport is possible. Raiding homes of people we can’t identify and locate to ship them out on 800 flights per month is not.
Published in General, Immigration, Politics
Good post.
I always found it ridiculous that the only solution politicians have to “we can’t deport them all” is “let them all stay.” There are other options.
Also, even if you can’t deport 11 million illegals, there is a wide gap between not deporting all of them, and legalizing all of them.
You could for example increase immigration security, and stop the next wave, and then not do anything about the legal status of the illegal immigrants.
Or you might manage to deport 1 or 2 million of them.
This line about not being able to deport 11 million people strikes me as a straw man.
We don’t have to legalize any of them, and we can deport them as we find them.
How do we deport 11 million illegal immigrants? 1 at a time.
I’m old and I am married to a legal immigrant, now American citizen, who came here in the 1950’s, legally. When I became an adult and moved to the Washington, D.C. area, I began to acquire some awareness of immigration issues and laws. My understanding of how such would work is about how you have described in this post.
In other words, the border would be controlled. Those who are in this country illegally, either by entering illegally or by overstaying a visa, when encountering some event disclosing this fact, would experience the processes described in your post. This just seemed a very normal approach to law enforcement.
I welcome any comments here that will convince me that this is not a proper way to enforce law.
It is one hell of a false choice.
Great post, and a great scenario. Every candidate should be asked to consider how their policies would pan out in the real world.
-E
You’ll get some push back about rights to due process, but that only means (to me at least) that a process must be established for this. We’ve got way too many lawyers, so hire a passel of them to act as judges rubber stamping the deportation orders of those caught living here illegally.
Of course, I’m all for the heartless path of denying education and all non-immediately life saving medical care and government services to those here illegally.
As for birthright citizenship, there’s some discussion that this can be fixed via legislative definition rather than an amendment. What we lack is the political will. Perhaps that’s what Cruz meant about if we had droves of illegal lawyers and journalists crossing the boarder.
You’re kidding right? You don’t really think the largest incentive to come here is to have your child be a citizen?
It isn’t the largest reason, but it is high up on the list.
I am not convinced there needs to be anything legislated with respect to 14. I’ve read some good arguments, including here on Ricochet, that it was never intended to implemented with its current broad interpretation.
There are much sharper legal minds that will hopefully weigh in.
Texas is embroiled in a lawsuit over issuing birth certificates. Perhaps it will make it to SCOTUS.
I am truly interested in the statistics on this. I’d be surprised if having an American child was the number 1 reason of 1/10 of illegal immigrants.
Great post again Brent.
Trump is doing the conservative equivalent of Obama promising to lower rising seas.
Your question and scenario is not only appropriate for candidates, but for each of us.
In conversations with my lefty friends, I have always made the point (I think it was Cruz who made last night) regarding what would occur if any American illegally entered another country.
The left don’t like to admit ‘American exceptionalism’ until they are faced with that question and then it becomes a convenient truth.
I will find an interpreter and run down to the car wash and find out, but the sample size is going to be small.
It would be interesting to have some insight on the matter.
I’m on board with your proposal though I might become an even more vocal supporter and campaign contributor if you’d promise me a no-show job in the future BrentB67 Administration.
How about I put you down for HUD Secretary? You will be given a security detail and be in charge of handing out severance checks (you will get one of course) and turning out the lights.
In appreciation of your service you will be promoted to Secretary of Education where you will repeat the process at DoE.
Thanks David. I was hoping Sen. Cruz was going to have the time to turn the ‘American exceptionalism’ on them.
This is actually what we need to have happen. Wong Kim Ark was decided when there was only citizen and alien. Now that there are three statuses we need either legislation or a court decision (probably SCOTUS) to declare or determine if the previous ruling extends to those here illegally.
Reading this list feels like a punch in the gut to me… but I’m mostly use to it…
Here are my attempts at a compromise:
Our experience with the Berlin Airlift – which used 1948’s technology and equipment! – tells me we could deport 11 million people in less than 2 years’ time. If we really wanted to.
BrentB67 2016! Who is your VP choice?
Since we can not deport illegals nor even identify them how about we just shutdown all that part of the government that is involved with immigrants since they can not seem to follow the law or do their job.
Since they are not effective why are we spending good taxpayer money on border security that does not secure borders and immigration services that can not control immigration. I suspect that once money is threatened, jobs are on the line, and agency survival become issues that all of a sudden we will have the most secure borders on the planet and the most effective deportation service in the world.
The issue is not that we can’t stop illegal immigration or deport illegal immigrants. The problem is that we will not do it because those in power do not want to do it. That being the case those that work for them do not do it and those on their side tell us it can not be done.
What if Mexico doesn’t grant authorization to land the planes? They are a sovereign nation, and I certainly wouldn’t put it past them.
And who’s illegal? Where are the 11 million? Oh, sure, the guys standing around Home Depot at 6:30am probably fit the bill. That’s might be 1 – 1.5 million. How are the others going to identified? “Your papers, please”? I would guess there’s a couple million illegals who are so integrated into American society we’ll never find them without a house to house search.
Both President Truman and Eisenhower deported illegal aliens, combined about 6 million. That was when the population was around 150 million. So the proportion is about the same as today.
Just focusing on the logistics of deporting 11 mil illegals is an academic exercise not grounded in reality. You would need to create an army of about 200,000 ICE agents to identify and find these people and you still would only find a fraction. Liberal judges would block the process; thousands of restaurants would close; you would have to clean your own hotel room in half the country.
The problem is the federal govt needs to be good at something they’re horrible at – accurately tracking large amounts of Visa holders, guest workers, legal immigrants, illegal immigrants, etc. The whole thing should be privatized and turned over to a company that can manage a complex database.
Until that happens it will just be a fiasco no matter what you do.
You had me at severance checks!
Great post Brent.
Yet even on Ricochet some still try the straw man, “It’s impossible to deport 11 million people.”
You can bet that if we deport 1 million in the fashion Brent lays out, the other 10 million will self deport based on a pure risk vs. reward calculation.
Thank you Z.
There’s a big difference between those who declare “we must deport them!” and those who argue for creating the conditions for self-deportation.
The latter I’m fully on board with. I think Brent has laid out a very logical solution. This obviously means it won’t happen. ;-)
And please lay out your tax plan in detail -remembering that the President only proposes, Congress disposes!
The junior Senator from South Carolina – Tim Scott. He became a political hero of mine while serving in the House in 2011. If I was unable to discharge the duties of President of the United States I am confident this gentleman will do the right thing.