Good Berean
Joined
Oct '10

I would like to get some feedback from Ricochet on my thesis that Paul Ryan’s budget proposal is less a map for future prosperity and more like a great American drug intervention.

I propose that the American Family has become addicted to “easy money prosperity”. Like an addict, we have burned through all of our own money, and are robbing future generations of their money to support our habit.

We, the American Family, are like all addicted families.  In this dynamic everyone plays a role in the process of becoming and staying addicted. The addicted member becomes so because of the dysfunctional family dynamic, becoming the family scapegoat. Meanwhile, mostly unconsciously, other family members enable the sick one to stay sick by facilitating their addictive behavior. But it turns out everyone has something to gain from the sick one’s sickness: The healthy ones can continue to look healthy when they are a part of the same sick dynamic. We, the American family, have enabled Congress to become addicted to the power that spending other peoples money affords.  But we have been enabled to look healthy as Congress spends other peoples’ money.

The only solution is to get off the drug; other peoples' money.  Resolve to stop appearing healthy at another person’s expense.  Stop being willing to borrow money from future generations for our present wants, and stop enabling Congress to coerce money out of others for our own benefit.

Are you with me in this Great American Intervention?

DebtCrisis

In his "Path to Prosperity," Ryan argues that Washington has a spending problem, rather than a tax revenue problem. He writes:

The President’s budget would drive both spending and revenues to historic highs as a share of the total U.S. economy. The trend is clear: Chasing ever-higher spending with ever-higher tax rates would leave the U.S. economy at a severe disadvantage compared to the rest of the world, to say nothing of the pain felt by  American families deprived of the chance to save for a better future. ...

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has concluded that the tax rates needed to sustain the nation’s current fiscal trajectory into the future would end up sinking the economy. That is one reason that the Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform proposed, as part of an overall effort to fix the nation’s unsustainable deficits, a fundamental tax reform plan that actually lowered income tax rates to promote growth, while eliminating tax loopholes to broaden the tax base.

While predicting GDP out for 50 years or more is an imprecise science, even just a quick glance at the next numbers for the next five or ten years is mighty impressive.

Picture 2

Here's what the debt as a share of the U.S. economy would look like if we continue on our current path as opposed to instituting the reforms proposed in Ryan's budget document:

Picture 3
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An Unsustainable Path 

The recent sovereign debt crises in Greece and other highly-indebted European countries provide a cautionary tale of the rough justice of the marketplace – lenders cannot and will not finance unsustainable deficits forever, and when they cut up the credit cards of profligate countries, severe economic turmoil ensues.

Over the past few years, Americans have seen just how quickly a severe financial crisis can create widespread pain and chaos. But the last crisis was foreseen only by a small number of perceptive individuals who recognized the implications of unwise decisions being made in Washington and on Wall Street.

By contrast, nearly every fiscal expert and advisor in Washington has warned that a major debt crisis is inevitable if the U.S. government remains on its current unsustainable path. The government’s failure to prevent this completely preventable crisis would rank among history’s most infamous episodes of political malpractice.

House Budget Committee | April 5, 2011 

The Path to Decline 

In the end, the debate about rising U.S. debt is not just about dollars and cents, but also about America’s status as a world power and its freedom to act in its own best interests. If the nation stays on its current path, interest payments on the national debt will begin to exceed yearly defense spending just 11 years from now. In just 16 years, yearly interest expenses will be double national defense spending.

If it stays on its current fiscal path, the United States will be unable to afford its role as an economic and military superpower. Other nations with very different interests will rush in to fill that role.

Last year in Foreign Affairs magazine, financial historian Niall Ferguson surveyed some of the great empire declines throughout history and observed that “most imperial falls are associated with fiscal crises. All the… cases were marked by sharp imbalances between revenues and expenditures, as well as difficulties with financing public debt.

Alarm bells should be ringing loudly… [for] the United States.”

America must not lose its role in the world. For this and many other reasons, Congress must act now to change the nation’s fiscal course. The new House majority was sent here by the American people to get spending under control, keep taxes low, and confront these great challenges today to allow this generation to pass an even greater nation along to the next generation.

Congress can choose to let this nation go the way of fallen empires, or it can begin – today – the work of restoring the vitality and greatness of America.

 House Budget Committee | April 5, 2011

If you don't want to read the budget document, you can watch it here on this three minute YouTube video. Never has a budget discussion been so riveting.

Study in Contrasts

This chart gives a quick side-by-side comparing Ryan's "Path to Prosperity" budget with President Obama's fiscal year 2012 budget. You can see how each plan addresses spending cuts, taxes, and the health care law, among other things.

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This is the first thing I've seen in a long time that gives me serious reason to believe that someone gets it--we control the budget or we become a banana republic. 

Finally, we're talking seriously. Finally. 

Americans face a monumental choice about the future of their country.

This budget resolution reflects that choice. It disavows the relentless government spending, taxing, and borrowing that are leading America, right at this moment, toward a debt-fueled economic crisis and the demise of America’s exceptional promise. 

To my astonishment, the numbers that go with these usually-empty words are serious numbers. Adult numbers, not fantasy-world numbers.

This is making me feel hopeful for the first time in a long time. I know I've been telling everyone not to give up hope, but the truth is I was mostly telling myself. This is making me actually feel it. 

Now that Rep. Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, has presented the GOP's budget proposal for fiscal year 2012, I've been waiting for David Limbaugh to admit that the document is so splendid--so precisely what we had all been hoping for in every regard--that we

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should put right out of our minds any thoughts of muddying matters by shutting down the government.  Brother David having apparently been detained, though, I thought I'd say a word.

Paul Ryan's document is historic.  By cutting more than $4 trillion from the budget over the next decade, it exceeds the recommendations of the budget commission President Obama established (and then ignored).  For that matter, it exceeds the fondest hopes of nearly everyone I know, including the most ardent members of the Tea Party.  The budget cuts discretionary spending, as it must.  But it takes on--forthrightly, unapologetically, and systematically--the major entitlement programs, especially Medicaid.  

In a word, this budget represents the first concerted, credible effort to shrink the federal government since the birth of the welfare state seven decades ago.  But not only that.  The document--and this is a critical matter, both as to policy and to the politics of the day--doesn't merely shrink and slash.  It isn't merely concerned with balancing the books.  It promotes growth

Here's the way Ryan described the budget this past weekend on Fox News Sunday:

By cutting spending, reforming entitlements and growing our economy. Look, we intend

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 to not only cut discretionary spending and put caps on spending, you have to address the drivers of our debt. ...

Now the good thing we have going for us is we have time to fix this problem. So the kinds of reform we're going to be putting out there won't make changes to people who are already in or near retirement. If you're 55 or older, you won't see changes. You won't have to reorient your lives around these things.

But if we keep kicking the can down the road and keep making more empty promises to people, then we'll have the European kind of pain and austerity. Then you have cuts to current seniors, tax increases that slow down your economy.

 By addressing the drivers of the debt now, we do it in a gradual way. ... And we are going to put out a plan that gets our debt on downward trajectory and gets us to a point of giving our next generation a debt-free nation. That in and of itself will help us grow the economy today and create jobs.

The GOP budget represents the most consequential domestic policy proposal in our lifetimes. Republicans, the Tea Party, conservatives, libertarians--we should drop all other fights.  This is where to make our stand.

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