The Robot Revolution Strikes Back!

 

Robot-SpecsLast week, Ricochet member Hank Rhody argued that our jobs are safe from the robots; at least into the near future, low and mid-skill workers will still be able to find employment. That might change, he warned, if governments persists in mucking with things:

Hank Rhody: There’s a simple way to make sure the jobs are still there: make it cheaper to hire people.  Forget wages; the real problem holding back American labor is — you guessed it! — government.  There are a thousand-and-one regulations protecting worker safety and the environment, making sure people can’t be fired and that you’re hiring enough people of the preferred sort, fining you thousands of dollars because you missed a jot or tittle, and all the other myriad headaches you have to endure to run a business.  Some of those things are necessary, but darn well not as many as we have right now.

Unfortunately, state and local governments have been mucking with things a lot of late.  Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick recently signed legislation that will raise the cost of labor in the Commonwealth to $11/hr in a few years and Seattle is fighting a lawsuit filed against its recently-enacted-and-highest-in-the-nation minimum wage of $15/hr.  This is couched — probably sincerely — in terms of guaranteeing a living wage for workers in expensive cities.

The problem is that imposing a minimum price on labor makes a lot of jobs uneconomical; if a Seattle-burger flipper can’t predictably produce more than $15 of revenue for the company each hour — and the real number, just in terms of wages, is much higher — even the most humane and progressive employer will give him the chop.  When you further require that employer to pay for his employees health insurance, it becomes even more difficult to justify low-skilled or entry-level positions.

Which doesn’t means the work won’t be done.  Xconomy profiled a robot start-up that — if you believe their press materials — has designed a closet-sized robot that can cook and assemble hamburgers to order.  Unlike human employees, these machines don’t have costs that are subject to the whims of well-meaning, but economically illiterate, politicians.  Their use, therefore, will be determined by old-fashioned supply-and-demand and cost-benefit analyses; thanks to minimum wage laws, these are no longer available to actual people.

Mechanization has been a tremendous boon for humanity, giving more people greater access to an ever-increasing set of goods and services.  It can continue to be if we keep the politicians out of the way.

Image Credit: Momentum Machines.

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  1. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Tom Meyer, Ed.: Unlike human employees, these machines don’t have costs that are subject to the whims of well-meaning, but economically illiterate, politicians.  Their use, therefore, will be determined by old-fashioned supply-and-demand and cost-benefit analyses; thanks to minimum wage laws, these are no longer available to actual people.

    The “robot rights” movement will surely be along in no time, fighting for the poor, oppressed A.I. slaves.

    • #1
  2. Frank Soto Member
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    I keep meaning to write a post about this topic.  A future with an unemployable underclass too closely resembles ancient Rome for comfort.  

    Poor citizens with no capital as their ancestral family farms had long since been taken from them, could obviously not compete with slave labor, which the Romans had in abundance after every victory.

    The government of Rome kept stability in the city by importing insane amounts of grain and simply giving it away to the poor as a massive welfare program.  Eventually the conquests ended, and the government had trouble maintaining this program.

    It wasn’t a recipe for stability.

    • #2
  3. user_138562 Moderator
    user_138562
    @RandyWeivoda

    The Democrats put a tax on medical devices in Obamacare.  If they’re going to tax pacemakers, is there any doubt they will soon propose a robot tax?

    • #3
  4. Eeyore Member
    Eeyore
    @Eeyore

    The real takeover will be a bit away. Trial lawyers are already drawing up the lawsuits for the first people made ill by a robot burgerizer malfunction. The pioneers in this industry will certainly be bankrupted.

    • #4
  5. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Eeyore:

    The real takeover will be a bit away. Trial lawyers are already drawing up the lawsuits for the first people made ill by a robot burgerizer malfunction. The pioneers in this industry will certainly be bankrupted.

    Sorta like the lawyers rubbing their hands with glee imagining how rich they’re going to get when the first commercial spaceplane disintegrates on reentry with 100 or so passengers on board.

    • #5
  6. Fake John Galt Coolidge
    Fake John Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    If you do not think that automation and technology is going to reduce the number of low level jobs available just ask your local video store clerk, gas station attendant or office administrative assistant (secretary).  If you can find one.  Technology has already reduced the number of these jobs.  

    Originally office assistants worked in pools with 1-10 assistants per manager.  Now those same managers have 0-1 assistant per 5-10 managers.  Gas station attendants have been replaced with self pump machines.  Video clerks were wiped out by internet streaming.
     
    Automation is already reducing workers in the food industry.  Restaurants already allow customers to self serve their beverages.  Burger cooking machines where the order is given and a cooked burger comes out the other end for assembly already exist.  Soon customer orders will be given via personal smart phones or restaurant tablets.  All these advancements reduce low level jobs.  Will there be a restaurant without workers?  Not immediately but there will definitely be ones with less employees as technology makes inroads into making existing workers more effective.

    • #6
  7. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    There are fewer and fewer routine assembly jobs that cannot be automated, or at least semi-automated, it’s all a question of the rate of return on your investment.  I could have an team of dedicated technicians dispensing adhesives and coatings at work, or I can buy a few of these:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKF41TTDWlI

    I can have teams of people with soldering irons, or one of these:

    I can manually place parts, or shoot them down at 80k an hour:

    • #7
  8. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    I’ve seen automation here that would amaze you.  All they do is find ways to eliminate people from manufacturing, from food service to automotive, from paint mixing to delicate welding.

    http://xasinc.com

    • #8
  9. JimGoneWild Coolidge
    JimGoneWild
    @JimGoneWild

    Fake John Galt: Video clerks were wiped out by internet streaming.

     Video stores wiped out drive-in theaters.

    • #9
  10. JimGoneWild Coolidge
    JimGoneWild
    @JimGoneWild

    It’s about time something so simple got automated.

    Hamburger machines will need: Designers, testers, assemblers, sales, maintenance people, operators, cleaners.  They will go through multiple transformations of technology.

    Human capital, i.e. people, will be utilize them selves with other meaningful work unless do-gooder liberals pay them to stop working.

    • #10
  11. Fake John Galt Coolidge
    Fake John Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    I have worked in manufacturing (IT side) which has a lot of union labor and increasing automation.  The problem I saw with automation and union labor were two fold. 
    First, union workers would regularly sabotage the equipment so they could take breaks and force overtime situations. 
    Second, is that we would regularly update the tech to make it more efficient and use less labor.  Unfortunately many unions would not allow that savings to be realized.  Say we had a machine that required 6 people to run that we updated to run more efficiently with 4 people.  The unions point of view was that 6 people still had to be employed.  I have walked into many a plant to see union workers sleeping because they were working a position that no longer existed but was still required per union regs.  These guys were usually had the most seniority, the highest salaries and gamed the system so they could come in and get overtime pay to sleep most of the time.  I suspect as automation comes in we will see more unionization as workers try to protect themselves.

    • #11
  12. Pilli Inactive
    Pilli
    @Pilli

    This is why they are trying to unionize McDonald’s.

    • #12
  13. user_494971 Contributor
    user_494971
    @HankRhody

    Fake John Galt:

    If you do not think that automation and technology is going to reduce the number of low level jobs available just ask your local video store clerk, gas station attendant or office administrative assistant (secretary). If you can find one. Technology has already reduced the number of these jobs.

     Technology reduces the jobs, but the jobs that are left are better. Really, does anyone want to be out pumping gas in February? They should really invent a robot that puts the nozzle in and takes it out, then you could run your gas station stop from your smartphone without ever having to get out of your warm car. Unless you needed to wash your windows…

    But back to the point; Technology will kill some people’s jobs, but in a healthy economy that’s offset by new startups. If it’s cheap enough to start new businesses then there will be new jobs available.

    Industries can still contract; there might not always be a factory job waiting for someone. It sucks, but it’s life. Change happens. I’m not going to try to ensure perfect outcomes for everybody. I’m not nearly leftist enough for that.

    • #13
  14. user_494971 Contributor
    user_494971
    @HankRhody

    Fake John Galt:

    I have worked in manufacturing (IT side) which has a lot of union labor and increasing automation. The problem I saw with automation and union labor were two fold. First, union workers would regularly sabotage the equipment so they could take breaks and force overtime situations. Second, is that we would regularly update the tech to make it more efficient and use less labor. Unfortunately many unions would not allow that savings to be realized.

    You can protect phoney-baloney jobs for a while, but eventually Hostess goes bankrupt. In a healthy economy companies that are forced to pay people to sleep shut down and force the union workers out of a job anyway.

    JimGoneWild:

    Human capital, i.e. people, will be utilize them selves with other meaningful work unless do-gooder liberals pay them to stop working.

     A society which pays parasites who produce no useful labor also goes out of business. This is unpleasant for all concerned. I believe that’s the point of Mr. Soto’s upcoming post.

    • #14
  15. Tom Meyer Member
    Tom Meyer
    @tommeyer

    Hank Rhody: But back to the point; Technology will kill some people’s jobs, but in a healthy economy that’s offset by new startups. If it’s cheap enough to start new businesses then there will be new jobs available.

    100% agreed, though I think it’s equally important to point out that technology makes earning a living easier by driving down prices.  I can enjoy dozens of kinds of manufactured goods that — a few generations ago — were available only to the insanely wealthy.  And let’s not even start on electronics…

    • #15
  16. user_656019 Coolidge
    user_656019
    @RayKujawa

    Humans never have anything to fear from robots. We are here to help you.

    And the good robots are here to destroy the bad robots. So don’t worry.

    • #16
  17. user_494971 Contributor
    user_494971
    @HankRhody

    Ray Kujawa:

    Humans never have anything to fear from robots. We are here to help you.

    And the good robots are here to destroy the bad robots. So don’t worry.

     Allow me to hyperlink… oh blast. Copy/paste it yourself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E0ot9iJm_k

    • #17
  18. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    Fake John Galt: I have walked into many a plant to see union workers sleeping because they were working a position that no longer existed but was still required per union regs.  These guys were usually had the most seniority, the highest salaries and gamed the system so they could come in and get overtime pay to sleep most of the time.  I suspect as automation comes in we will see more unionization as workers try to protect themselves.

     Barring direct government intervention, I disagree.  The way unions have been weakened so far is by moving factories.  This will continue.  The UAW stranglehold on auto manufacturing has been broken by either moving factories to Mexico or to the American south.  Same with any number of other industries.

    And even if a company does not move itself, its competition will create a replacement factory without the union legacy costs and overhead, driving out the older union plants.  This has happened too in many industries.

    Given that I can put a plant anywhere in the world, and that I just need to find or bring in a few people to run it, unions do not have a chance in the long run.

    • #18
  19. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    Pilli:

    This is why they are trying to unionize McDonald’s.

     I think that is somewhat backwards.  The unions are going after McDonalds for money and power, they don’t give a damn about the workers.  The cozy corruption that exists between the unions and the government right now is the only reason this has any traction at all. 

    • #19
  20. Fake John Galt Coolidge
    Fake John Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    skipsul:

     

    Barring direct government intervention, I disagree. The way unions have been weakened so far is by moving factories. This will continue. The UAW stranglehold on auto manufacturing has been broken by either moving factories to Mexico or to the American south. Same with any number of other industries.

    And even if a company does not move itself, its competition will create a replacement factory without the union legacy costs and overhead, driving out the older union plants. This has happened too in many industries.

    Given that I can put a plant anywhere in the world, and that I just need to find or bring in a few people to run it, unions do not have a chance in the long run.

     There will be direct government intervention.  From what I can tell government and unions would prefer that companies did not exist at all unless they work the way they want them to.  Since reality will not allow companies to work in the government/union fantasy world they will either stop existing or exist in other countries.  

    • #20
  21. Fake John Galt Coolidge
    Fake John Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    skipsul:

    Pilli:

    This is why they are trying to unionize McDonald’s.

    I think that is somewhat backwards. The unions are going after McDonalds for money and power, they don’t give a damn about the workers. The cozy corruption that exists between the unions and the government right now is the only reason this has any traction at all.

     Not entirely true.  The unions do care to some degree about their members, it just might not be their primary concern.  In the end it is alway about how much money can be taken.

    • #21
  22. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Fake John Galt:

    skipsul:

    Pilli:

    This is why they are trying to unionize McDonald’s.

    I think that is somewhat backwards. The unions are going after McDonalds for money and power, they don’t give a damn about the workers. The cozy corruption that exists between the unions and the government right now is the only reason this has any traction at all.

    Not entirely true. The unions do care to some degree about their members, it just might not be their primary concern. In the end it is alway about how much money can be taken.

    Unions care about maximizing the total number of dues-paying members. The easiest way to do this is to replace workers with taxpayers.

    • #22
  23. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    Fake John Galt:  There will be direct government intervention.  From what I can tell government and unions would prefer that companies did not exist at all unless they work the way they want them to.  Since reality will not allow companies to work in the government/union fantasy world they will either stop existing or exist in other countries.  

     Even in this abysmal criminal administration we still have not seen the levels of blatant coercion inflicted on American industry that we say in the 1930’s through the 1950’s.  We have not seen attempts by Barry to outright seize and nationalize the steel industry, and even his auto takeover was by breaking or ignoring laws to grab moribund assets rather than an outright steal.

    Unions need large workforce targets, manufacturing workforce is shrinking.  I don’t expect their franchise ruling to hold up in court, that leaves a more fragmented and fractured workforce.  Doesn’t matter what the governments or unions want, you cannot force companies to add people, merely to hold the ones they have.

    • #23
  24. user_144801 Inactive
    user_144801
    @JamesJones

    A society which pays parasites who produce no useful labor also goes out of business. This is unpleasant for all concerned. I believe that’s the point of Mr. Soto’s upcoming post.

    That’s all well and good, but there still seems to be a problem here. Suppose that (a) there’s a significant portion of society incapable of doing skilled labor (which I believe is the case), (b) nearly all jobs previously done by unskilled labor can be automated at a cost so low that the equivalent cost in labor would be below what anyone could live on. Then what? Are all those people parasites?

    Some of them, no doubt, are, and should be encouraged to become skilled and (perhaps marginally) productive. But some just can’t get there. What are we to do with them?

    • #24
  25. user_331141 Member
    user_331141
    @JamieLockett

    Frank Soto:

    I keep meaning to write a post about this topic. A future with an unemployable underclass too closely resembles ancient Rome for comfort.

    Poor citizens with no capital as their ancestral family farms had long since been taken from them, could obviously not compete with slave labor, which the Romans had in abundance after every victory.

    The government of Rome kept stability in the city by importing insane amounts of grain and simply giving it away to the poor as a massive welfare program. Eventually the conquests ended, and the government had trouble maintaining this program.

    It wasn’t a recipe for stability.

    It has been apparent for some time that America in the 21st century more than resembles the late Roman Empire. This comment hit was to close to home. 

    • #25
  26. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    James Jones:

    A society which pays parasites who produce no useful labor also goes out of business. This is unpleasant for all concerned. I believe that’s the point of Mr. Soto’s upcoming post.

    That’s all well and good, but there still seems to be a problem here. Suppose that (a) there’s a significant portion of society incapable of doing skilled labor (which I believe is the case), (b) nearly all jobs previously done by unskilled labor can be automated at a cost so low that the equivalent cost in labor would be below what anyone could live on. Then what? Are all those people parasites?

    Some of them, no doubt, are, and should be encouraged to become skilled and (perhaps marginally) productive. But some just can’t get there. What are we to do with them?

     Don’t know, but we should not be importing more and more of them.

    • #26
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