Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Mollie Hemingway, Ed. ·
October 9, 2012 at 5:19pm
Well, it's not as exciting as the dramatic shift we saw yesterday, but here are some of the polls released this morning:
Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, Romney 48 Tie
Pennsylvania: Siena Obama 43, Romney 40 Obama +3
North Dakota: Mason-Dixon Romney 54, Obama 40 Romney +14
Massachusetts: WBUR/MassINC Obama 52, Romney 36 Obama +16
Massachusetts Senate: WBUR/MassINC Warren 45, Brown 48 Brown +3
North Dakota Senate: Mason-Dixon Berg 47, Heitkamp 47 Tie
Connecticut Senate: Rasmussen Reports Murphy 51, McMahon 46 Murphy +5
Pennsylvania Senate: Siena Casey 44, Smith 35 Casey +9
And I hear a new poll is out showing Romney up in Colorado. We'll see.
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Sep '12
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Is that Rasmussen number at the top national?
Nov '10
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Rassmussen continues to oversample Democrats +3D, when his own polling shows Republicans outnumbering Democrats +2.3. Without weighting Romney is +6 in Rassmussen, see http://unskewedpolls.com/
This does not apply to Warren/Brown because it's a national average. Still, the GOP has a distinct advantage in voter intensity this year, which was enough to give Brown the "Kennedy seat" not that long ago. It will be interesting to see what happens there.
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Nope. General election nationwide.
Jun '10
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Question for Midwesterners: Is the ND race that close? I thought Berg had pulled away.
Oct '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
I was actually called for the Rasmussen poll on Sunday night and answered it. All machine run and took a couple of minutes. I would not one important point that could skew polling--- it was Sunday night on a holiday weekend. A lot of people were away on vacation in my area, out having dinner with family members, or watching baseball. I am not sure how this would affect the polls, but I would imagine there is some correlation between political leanings and being home at the time.
Apr '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
The Rasmussen is good news. It looked as though the jobs report had completely stopped Romney's surge when Obama had good polling days on Saturday and Sunday. I was pretty sure Obama would go slightly ahead today as Romney's big Friday night dropped off, so Romney must have had a pretty good night Monday to keep it even.
Aug '10
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
The tsunami predicted by Prof Rahe is forming. I think Romney gets over 300 electoral votes.
Apr '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Gallup went to likely voter today - R 49 O47!!!
Let's be careful, guys....still a month to go.
Jul '12
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
RCP Average: Obama + 0.5
Nov '10
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Considering the holiday in question (Columbus Day) lots of lefties are probably self-righteously not celebrating the holiday.
Jul '12
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Umbra Fractus
Considering the holiday in question (Columbus Day) lots of lefties are probably self-righteously notcelebrating the holiday. · 3 minutes ago
How widespread is observance of Columbus Day as a work-free holiday?
From wikipedia:
Mar '12
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
In a weird way, I am swinging back to the Rahe view: weird, because, I think whoever wins, will win decisively, i.e., pretty much all the swing states will swing to the same ticket. I just am still not sure whether that will be Romney/Ryan or Obama/Biden. Clearly, the momentum is now with Romney, and Obama will need something big to change that, either a debate win, a Romney gaffe, or... a last minute Chicago dirty trick (amplified of course by a pliant media.)
Oct '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Romney is now +.7 in the realclearpolitics.com average of polls.
Oct '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
I still think that either Obama will squeak by, Romney will squeak by, or Romney will win decisively.
Apr '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
Or just the fact that Obama has a ridiculous amount of money to spend in the last four weeks.
Apr '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
wmartin
Or just the fact that Obama has a ridiculous amount of money to spend in the last four weeks. · 1 minute ago
We don't know Mitt's cash in hand figures for September, but at the end of August, Obama + DNC + Priorities USA had outraised Mitt + team $690m-$633m. Mitt, however, had spent less than Obama, meaning that he had more cash on hand; $191m to $130m.
I get the impression that over September, Obama's fundraising considerably outmatched ours, but also that he spent considerably more. October, though? After the debate, I have to believe that more GOP wallets opened than Democratic. Considerably more.
Apr '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
One of the reasons I disagree with this is that it's not Romney's style.
Mitt doesn't waste anyone's money. If you look at the way that he won the primaries, he didn't spend a penny more than he had to to win. In Iowa, he spent what he had to to break Newt, because Newt was toxic, but he spent much less on fighting Rick; he even miscalculated by 34 votes and underspent.
Likewise, he spent heavily in Florida, for the same reason, but spent very little money in the next four states (not counting Maine), which was enough to secure Santorum as his opponent. He spent enough in Maine to win the votes (which mattered), but not enough to counter Paul's delegate cheating (which didn't). He spent enough to give himself a small margin of error in Michigan.
He spent enough to win Ohio on Super Tuesday (by 1%), but let a lot of races pass by. The important races were close, and carefully selected, because Mitt's data collection is superb.
Nov '10
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
James Of England
One of the reasons I disagree with this is that it's not Romney's style.
Mitt doesn't waste anyone's money.
. . .
Likewise, he spent heavily in Florida, for the same reason, but spent very little money in the next four states (not counting Maine), which was enough to secure Santorum as his opponent. He spent enough in Maine to win the votes (which mattered), but not enough to counter Paul's delegate cheating (which didn't). He spent enough to give himself a small margin of error in Michigan.
He spent enough to win Ohio on Super Tuesday (by 1%), but let a lot of races pass by. The important races were close, and carefully selected, because Mitt's data collection is superb.
But isn't winning a clear mandate a good use of money? What is the better use for the money, which has been donated for the purpose of getting him elected?
Apr '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
It was a widely noted phenomenon that Mitt only had the votes when he needed them; he'd often come from behind late in the game. Even after Super Tuesday, he'd rather save money than win unnecessary races.
At the moment, I think that this is Obama's best case, if we did nothing more than our baseline:
With luck, the Mormons who disappointed us in Colorado in the primaries will get their act together, and we'll get this as a baseline + LDS:
I have confidence in the Nevada LDS; we're down in the polls, but the foot soldiers in Nevada are energized, while their footsoldiers (unions) are not at their best. Mitt is supporting those efforts. In Colorado, the LDS appear less impressive, but they don't need to achieve so much.
That map sees us at 250 EV. We'd need either Virginia or Ohio and one other non-New Hampshire state (Iowa seems like the most likely choice).
To get to the second map, we need to spend, and volunteer, in Florida, Nevada, Omaha, Colorado, and North Carolina. To win, we need to turn out more than Obama in Ohio, Virginia, and elsewhere.
Apr '11
Re: Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves
This has been a great day,and I have been uncharacteristically jubilant, but a little bad news from Allahpundit at Hot Gas - Gallup says that, after losing his 5 point lead in their daily tracker over the last week, Obama is back out to a 5 point lead over the last 36 hours. Not sure how they get that, but it may indicate this is just a bounce that will recede quickly.