You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Just had a conversation with my friend and Hoover colleague, the political scientist Morris Fiorina. When I suggested that in his speech this evening Romney needs to demonstrate a certain warmth, Mo demurred, arguing instead that Romney would do fine if he merely conveyed a certain competence and strength of character.
Mo then sent me the link to a fascinating column he'd written this past spring. Joining a couple of other political scientists, Mo had studied the importance of likeability in recent presidential elections. An excerpt:
What journalists and historians wrote about the candidates after the elections was sometimes considerably at odds with what Americans said about the candidates before the elections. For example, in 1952 the public rated Adlai Stevenson slightly higher than Dwight D. Eisenhower on the personal dimension. Eisenhower was viewed as the strong leader who won the war in Europe. “I like Ike” described 1956 better than 1952. Similarly, in 1960 the public rated Richard M. Nixon ever so slightly higher than John F. Kennedy. As one prominent political scientist wrote at the time, “If the eventual account given by the political histories is that Nixon was a weak candidate in 1960, it will be largely myth.” Kennedy’s charisma developed after the election.
Over all, in the 13 elections between 1952 and 2000, Republican candidates won four of the six in which they had higher personal ratings than the Democrats, while Democratic candidates lost four of the seven elections in which they had higher ratings than the Republicans. Not much evidence of a big likability effect here.
All Mitt really needs to do, to put the matter rather crudely, is to prove at least as likable as Richard Nixon, which, of course, Mitt already is. In short, tonight Mitt may simply relax and be himself.
My, my. I do love it when a political scientist offers some good news.
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Comments:
May '11
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
I deeply offended a college professor once when after his lecture I quipped that I thought political science was an oxymoron. I tend to do that sort of thing way too often.
Mar '11
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
This election is about getting a President; not a friend nor a pastor. Ann Romney just might make the best Toll House cookies in the world – I'll never have one, and I'm good with that. Mitt needs to repeal Obamacare, get the government's foot off of the throat of American Business, back our friends and confound our enemies.
Jun '10
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
First, please no comedy. Second, let America see the Mormon Bishop that counseled regular families in trouble, and was a moral leader for his ward. Just leave the overtly religious parts out. Beyond that, explain what a good project leader does. It's not micromanaging. It's establishing goals, and adapting to changing conditions on the way to achieving those goals. And remind people, that when it comes to rescuing things, been there, done that. If you can do it, it's not bragging.
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Beautiful.
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Given the mess we are in, all that Romney has to do is exude confidence. Who is going to vote for four more years of Obama?
Feb '12
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Ditto what Paul Rahe said.. and no comedy, just exude confidence. That's what the country is lacking right now..
Aug '12
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Peter thank you so much for bringing this article to our attention.
May '10
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Prof. Rahe, doc molloy, and others nailed it. Americans are so ripe for leadership that Gov. Romney needs to, in the words of the National Review editors, "Own it, Mitt!" Does anyone else sense another set of low expectations boding well for him? Mr. Robinson, any chance the Ricochet braintrust could set up a chat next time?
May '10
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Pardon the teacher for not noticing the details... I just read Blue Yeti on the Member Feed. See y'all later.
Jun '12
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
There is a huge difference between likability and the ability to do a given job.
I've had co-workers... and bosses... who I liked just fine on a personal level, but thought they were terrible at their jobs. I've also had co-workers... and bosses... who I wasn't particularly fond of, but who did an admirable job at their given tasks.
We're not hiring -- and make no mistake, we are hiring, not electing -- a best friend. We're hiring someone to undo the Obama legacy and put the country back on the right track. Whether or not I think I'd like to go to a ball game with Mitt -- and, honestly, I think that might be fun -- is largely irrelevant to whether or not he can do that job.
May '10
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
The "reasonable man" test is more important than likability, so long as he has a vision (which would therefore also seem "reasonable").
Also important is that Romney not be overly attack-dog-ish and negative. Obama desperately wants him to be "that guy", so he can be justified in responding in kind next week and hence avoid concentrating on his own record.
We need to force Obama into being either the initiator of aggression and negativity (a loss for him) or into having to talk up his own "accomplishments" and "vision" (also an obvious loss).
May '12
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Too often likability = telling people what they want to hear. We need someone to tell the truth, darned the consequences.
Aug '12
Re: You're Likable Enough Already, Mitt
Ah, but there are many people out there who vote, but who pay no attention to politics, and little attention to the news. Where did this thing about "likeability" come from? The idea that Mitt must become more real, connect with people and so on. Did it come from Mr. Axlerod, perchance? I can't remember "likeability" being a factor in other elections. People refused to vote for Tom Dewey because they hated his mustache.
Ike was elected partly because he had a marvelous warm grin, and Supreme Commander too of course. Obama has a wonderful smile. Did you ever see such perfect teeth? And there is always someone in the audience to shout out "We love you Mr. President" and he can call back "I love you too." Is it always the same staffer or does he change them? There's only so much coincidence I can swallow.