Yes, Virginia, Obama's in Trouble
"As Maine goes, so goes the nation".
Maybe so, if you believe that Maine's Class of 2010 governor, Paul LePage, is a sneak preview of the kind of fiscally-conservative feistiness (“I’m more of a street fighter than an angry person. And when I go through the halls in Augusta, I’m going to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.”) that's needed to drive Barack Obama from office in 2012.
Me? I'm looking at my home state, Virginia, where the numbers aren't looking good for Team Hope.
The latest Roanoke College Poll, out just this morning (they sampled from 9/6-9/17), has Obama trailing a generic Republican, 41%-33%.
Obama trails Mitt Romney,45%-37%.
He trails Rick Perry, 42%-40%.
Obama does hold a lead over Michele Bachmann (46%-35%), Ron Paul (43%-33%), and Sarah Palin (50%-31%).
Before you ask: the sampling did not include Herman Cain (here's the pdf, for you numbers-junkies).
More troubling numbers for Obama: only one in seven Virginians in this poll think the nation's on the right track. POTUS's approval rating: an anemic 39%, compared to the 57% approval for Bob McDonnell, the commonwealth's Republican governor (McDonnell, like Rubio, a name commonly associated with with ticket-talk).
Why does Virginia matter?
After decades in the GOP column, it went to Obama (+6 over McCain) in 2008. Republican party insiders like to think of it as a one-time occurrence rather than ongoing trouble in the New South.
It's a state whose voters registration is evenly split between the two parties.
If the GOP is going to find the 90 electoral votes necessary to deny Obama a second term (he received 359 ev's in 2008, adjusted to post-census new math), Virginia's 13 electoral votes are a good place to start.
Add Virginia's 13 ev's to North Carolina's 15 and Indiana's 11 and Obama's tally falls to 320. That leaves the GOP nominee (assuming he or she sweeps the 2008 red states) one Florida (29), one Ohio (18) and one Nevada (6) shy of victory.
Got a better bellwether and a better scenario for unseating Obama? Here's my favorite interactive map. Have at!!
- Comment (1)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (0)
Comments :
Apr '11
Re: Yes, Virginia, Obama's in Trouble
I'd say Virginia is a given. The bellwether might be Iowa. It's a slightly left leaning state due to farm subsidies mainly, but it's not filled with your typical big government types. I'll be shocked if the GOP carries Iowa and doesn't get to 270 electoral votes. I'd rank the states that will turn red this way. 1) N. Carolina 2) Virginia 3) Indiana 4) Ohio 5) Florida 6) Nevada 7) Iowa 8) Colorado 9) New Mexico 10) Pennsylvania.
Carrying the top 6 will do it, and I see no way Obama gets any of the top 3. The early indicator that night will be Pennsylvania. If it goes GOP, it's going to be a blowout. At the same time, if Ohio or Florida goes to Obama, it'll be very depressing. Let's just hope it doesn't come down to recounts.