Yemen on Brink of Civil War
About seventy people were killed today on the streets of Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. Twenty-eight were killed this morning in what the government says was an explosion at an arms depot and what the protesters say was government forces firing on residential areas.
Residents of the capital are frantically trying to leave the city, where machine-gun fire, explosions and mortar fire are being reported. The US State Department has ordered all non-essential diplomats and embassy staff to evacuate.
The clashes are between the security forces of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and members of a tribal federation led by Sadiq al-Ahmar. Al-Ahmar's forces have joined together with the thousands of Yemenis encamped in Sanaa demanding Saleh's ouster. Al-Ahmar has allegedly taken custody of about seventy members of Saleh's security forces, and Saleh has issued orders that al-Ahmar be arrested for armed rebellion.
Saleh's two main backers, the Americans and the Saudis, have both dumped him, notwithstanding their respective fears of al Qaeda violence and Iranian interference. The Saudis, via the GCC, are giving him 30 days to step down with immunity from prosecution. The G8 countries, which are meeting in Deauville, issued a statement that said, "We deplore the fighting that occurred overnight which was a direct result of the current political impasse, for which President Saleh has direct responsibility due to his refusal to sign the GCC transition agreement."
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton concurs. "We support the departure of President Saleh, who has consistently agreed that he would be stepping down from power and then consistently reneged on those agreements," she said. About the sharp rise in bloodshed today, she said, "We are very troubled by the ongoing clashes. We call on all sides immediately to cease the violence."
Civil war has already started, according to Uzi Rabi, director of Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies and author of the forthcoming book Yemen: The Anatomy of a Failed State. "Unlike other Arab states, it isn’t the youth who are initiating things in Yemen. Yemen has a different rhythm, even if some would like to compare it to the revolutions sweeping the Middle East now...More often than not, dictators are able to hold very complex states in a relative state of stability. It’s no doubt that if Bashar [Assad of Syria], Saleh and [Libya’s] Muammar Gaddafi fall, what we will likely see is a collection of mini-states, and that means instability, something that isn’t healthy for the Middle East, at least in the short term.”
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May '10
Re: Yemen on Brink of Civil War
In all the reporting of these uprisings and rebellions in the middle east and north Africa, the constant reference in these conflicts is "tribes." What constitutes a "tribe" in these Arab cultures? Does it have something to do with how Arab families are structured, i.e. inter-marriage, cousin marriage, etc.?
I have a family, and I live within a community with a certain polity but I don't belong to a tribe. What makes for this difference between my society and societies like Libya or Yemen?
Dec '10
Re: Yemen on Brink of Civil War
Peggy Noonan, responding to W's second Inaugural Address, fretted about his call for Mideast democracy, famously likening despots to garbage-can lids keeping evil and strife contained. Apart from the fact that despots have been happy to let out evil against the US as a release of steam, the correct metaphor is that they are pressure-cooker lids, and keeping them installed was always going to lead to explosions. Had Obama helped the Iranian people break free, it might have led other regional leaders to open up ways for pressure to fall; instead, Obama's timidity left other peoples with no option but to blow the lid clean off.
Re: Yemen on Brink of Civil War
Kervinlee: In all the reporting of these uprisings and rebellions in the middle east and north Africa, the constant reference in these conflicts is "tribes." What constitutes a "tribe" in these Arab cultures? Does it have something to do with how Arab families are structured, i.e. inter-marriage, cousin marriage, etc.?
I have a family, and I live within a community with a certain polity but I don't belong to a tribe. What makes for this difference between my society and societies like Libya or Yemen? · May 26 at 11:26am
This is a very good and important question. I'll try my hand at it tomorrow.
Aug '10
Re: Yemen on Brink of Civil War
Do people realize that Yemen is about 20 miles away from the only American military installation of any consequence on the entire African continent , and it sits next to a large French base, which may be the only French military base outside France ?
Situation being what it is, with a leader from behind, our Africom headquarters is in Germany.
Nov '10
Re: Yemen on Brink of Civil War
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Kervinlee: In all the reporting of these uprisings and rebellions in the middle east and north Africa, the constant reference in these conflicts is "tribes." What constitutes a "tribe" in these Arab cultures? Does it have something to do with how Arab families are structured, i.e. inter-marriage, cousin marriage, etc.?
I have a family, and I live within a community with a certain polity but I don't belong to a tribe. What makes for this difference between my society and societies like Libya or Yemen? · May 26 at 11:26am
This is a very good and important question. I'll try my hand at it tomorrow. · May 26 at 11:57am
Roger Scruton's book The West and the Rest has excellent insights into this, precisely with respect to the Muslim world.
May '10
Re: Yemen on Brink of Civil War
Robert Lux
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
This is a very good and important question. I'll try my hand at it tomorrow. · May 26 at 11:57am
Roger Scruton's book The West and the Rest has excellent insights into this, precisely with respect to the Muslim world. · May 26 at 12:09pm
Thanks, Claire, and Robert. I don't mean to pile too much on the plate but, my idea that family structure and inter-marriage in Arab culture contribute to these conflicts comes from Stanley Kurtz' National Review article Assimilation Studies of March 2007:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/220338/assimilation-studies/stanley-kurtz
Kurtz is writing about Pakistan here but he notes some parallels with Arab socities. So, Claire, my last question is: are cultures organized in tribal fashion ill-suited to the modern nation-state by their very design and, if so, is there another kind of social order where these tribal groups can reconcile their interests without resorting to civil war?