Worst ... Speech ... Ever
I wonder how many of you, like me, watched Hosni Mubarak's address to the Egyptian people with your jaws on the floor. It's hard to think of a way this could have been worse. He repeatedly promised to guide Egypt through “the current crisis”, not seeming to realize that in the minds of the protestors the crisis and the continuance of his regime are coextensive. He made an utterly bizarre attempt to appropriate those killed in the street by referring to them affectionately as “martyrs”. And, oh yeah, he said that he’d still be staying on through September. And he said it as if the Egyptian people should be grateful.
My reaction is much like Claire’s was when Western journalists started being targeted for violence by the Egyptian security forces: “they can’t really be that stupid, can they?” Why Mubarak felt a need to give a speech is beyond me – the text gave virtually no new information (save for a slightly stepped-up role for Vice President Omar Suleiman), but it did underscore his increasingly petulant attitude about staying in power. Also, it was a huge miscalculation not to let word leak early that the remarks wouldn’t mark much of a change from the status quo. Allowing rumors to circulate that Mubarak was stepping down – and then having city streets full of protestors watching him do no such thing – was a recipe for increased anger and aggression.
From the vantage point of a liberal democracy, this all seems a bit surreal. Even the most casual observer of American politics has internalized the acoustics of a politician acknowledging public sentiment -- and it doesn’t sound like this. In context, though, it all begins to make sense. Mubarak has never been a politician; he’s been a strongman. He’s never had to feign contrition or evoke empathy. Unfortunately for him, it’s too late to right that ship. And through his ham-fisted attempt, he’s probably accelerated his departure.
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Aug '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Mark Lynch over at ForeignPolicy.com also called it the "worst speech ever."
I wonder if this will become a meme.
Jul '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Was there anything in there about high-speed rail?
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Don't forget, he blamed foreigners for the unrest as well. None were specified; possibly Brazilians. Next speech he will lay the blame on Scooby, Shaggy, Velma, and the rest of those meddling kids.
Jun '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
I would have agreed with you immediately had I not seen Suleiman's speech shortly afterward. He gave Mubarak some stiff competition for the title.
Aug '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
What's the big deal about waiting until the scheduled elections in September, with Mubarak committed to going and the various aspirants using the time to set out their respective stalls to the Egyptian people so that both they ( and we, inasmuch as that matters) know what the options are, rather than the present giddy pursuit of the unknown? Right now, I for one smell a rat.
Dec '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
The protests in the street were well performed. But they were only a timely diversion that enabled a long simmering power struggle to culminate while the protesters unwittingly set the stage for Mubarak to save face.
What happened had nothing to do about democracy, but rather, was the reaffirmation of the Egyptian Military-Industrial Complex’s control over civil society. They resisted against the threat to their power, not from “riotous crowds” (Churchill’s expression about Egypt to describe how they live—Egyptians have known how to do this for a long time, without google, facebook, and cell phones), but from Mubarak himself.
He had been contemplating how to instate a familial dynasty whose first successor would not only have put the lifestyle of Jordan’s Queen Rania to the back pages of their glamour magazines, but his antagonism with the generals would have made them turn against him in a way that would have been even more wildly misreported by our tribal media than what just happened.
So, his son had to go. Mission accomplished.
Aug '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Foreigners. Ah, that explains the cowboy hats, Eskimo parkas, wooden shoes, and lederhosen I saw the protestors wearing. If only our president would give a speech ceding more authority to the veep, I think the reaction would be far more positive here.
Jun '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Mubarak's speech was condescending, arrogant and knowingly deceitful. He claimed he would make sure an investigation of the causes of the violence that ensued. Does anyone seriously believe that a fair and thorough investigation won't lead right back to Mubarak himself and his secret police? It was the speech of a delusional narcissist who believes he IS Egypt.
I wish I could call up more whimsical musings on this but as I heard each point in the speech I could only feel that Mubarak's tyrannical belligerence will sadly lead to the spilling of more blood on streets throughout Egypt.
Rather than admitting his failures and mistakes and laying out a plan to leave the presidency much earlier than September he has instead given the Muslim Brotherhood an opportunity to brazenly assume the moral high ground that if Mubarak won't listen to the people and accede to their demands for representative democracy that they will.
Rather than diffusing unrest Mubarak has ignited a powder keg. My guess is that the military will assume control and Mubarak and Suleiman will be gone soon and Egypt will be ruled by a general who steps into the spotlight.
Edited on Feb 10, 2011 at 6:04pmMay '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
What did anyone expect? Nasser died in office after 24 years, Sadat assassinated after 21 and Mubarak has been there for the last 30. There is no precedent for the peaceful transfer of power.
This will not end well.
Oct '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Read The Strong Horse. Things in a part of the world which has had no experience whatsoever with consensual government since the emergence of H. sap. will necessarily be difficult to interpret from the perspective of those with a couple of centuries of assuming the strongman doesn't inherently have legitimacy unless endorsed by the people in some form or other.
I'm not arguing for moral equivalence or multiculturalism here, but simply observing that Western civil society and governance, notwithstanding being objectively superior based on outcomes, may not end well if imposed upon a society without the history and intellectual tradition upon which it is founded.
Is it cynical to ask what are the best outcomes for people presently living in dysfunctional authoritarian regimes, as opposed to the best theoretical solutions which may lead to tragedy and tyranny?
May '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
I've been buttressing my poker play with some probability theory, so here it goes.
We all want Mubarak to go. He sucks. However, some have argued that his absence may make way for an even worse administration in Egypt. Hence, if Mubarak goes, the probability (0.0-1.0) that the next administration will be preferable given Mubarak's performance is p and the probability that it will non-preferable is n.
If Mubarak leaves, then how implausible is it that the governing body in Egypt will be determined by the Egyptian electorate? I believe it is high.
Now what is the will of the people, specifically potential voters? Unsurprisingly, surveys of Egyptians amidst the havoc are unreliable, so let's look at election results. In the 2010 parliamentary elections, the only political organization holding seats to lose seats was the Muslim Brotherhood. The big winner was the National Democratic Party, the party of Mubarak. This suggests that the threat of Islamism from the electorate is low.
(Cont.)
Edited on Feb 10, 2011 at 4:50pmMay '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
So, I believe that the probability that the electorate will vote for an Islamist individual/organization as the authoritative head of state is low, say 20%.
Now, assuming that the Egyptian electorate does not desire Islamic governance, what is the probability that the outcome of Mubarak's absence will probably be preferable (assuming, that the electorate will be the chief determinant of political power). This probability is easier to determine and I'll peg it again at 80%, because if the Egyptian electorate isn't gay for Islamism and they are the chief political power determinant, then a positive post-Mubarak outcome is likely.
So, if the Muslim Brotherhood lost seats and secular political groups won or kept the majority of the seats in the 2010 parliamentary elections, then the Egyptian electorate probably does not desire an Islamist state (0.8). If the Egyptian electorate does not desire an Islamist state, then the outcome of Mubarak's absence will probably be preferable (0.8). Thus, 0.8(0.8) = p = 64% is the chance that the next governing body will be preferable over Mubarak. I think, if anything, this figure is on the conservative side. I'd bet here.
Edited on Feb 10, 2011 at 4:42pmDec '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Well, at least Hosni Mubarak isn't a quitter!
Jun '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
John Walker: Read The Strong Horse. Things in a part of the world which has had no experience whatsoever with consensual government since the emergence of H. sap. will necessarily be difficult to interpret from the perspective of those with a couple of centuries of assuming the strongman doesn't inherently have legitimacy unless endorsed by the people in some form or other.
I'm not arguing for moral equivalence or multiculturalism here, but simply observing that Western civil society and governance, notwithstanding being objectively superior based on outcomes, may not end well if imposed upon a society without the history and intellectual tradition upon which it is founded.
Is it cynical to ask what are the best outcomes for people presently living in dysfunctional authoritarian regimes, as opposed to the best theoretical solutions which may lead to tragedy and tyranny? · Feb 10 at 4:33pm
Ideas have a habit of crossing borders. The "intellectual tradition" and the example of representative democracies have not been shielded from them. The elections in Iraq certainly have also had an influence. The Egyptian people are not naive children and it is the height of Western pseudo-intellectual arrogance to treat them as such.
Jul '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
You know, Stuart, I was thinking about commenting that this is the worst speech since Sarah Palin's resignation address.
But then I thought better of it.
Jun '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Michael Labeit: [...edited for length...]
So, if the Muslim Brotherhood lost seats and secular political groups won or kept the majority of the seats in the 2010 parliamentary elections, then the Egyptian electorate probably does not desire an Islamist state (0.8). If the Egyptian electorate does not desire an Islamist state, then the outcome of Mubarak's absence will probably be preferable (0.8). Thus, 0.8(0.8) = p = 64% is the chance that the next governing body will be preferable over Mubarak. I think, if anything, this figure is on the conservative side. I'd bet here. · Feb 10 at 4:37pm
Edited on Feb 10 at 04:42 pm
You may want to apply Chaos Theory to popular revolutions that are chaotic. The probability for unexpected consequences from seemingly minor catalysts is considerably higher.
Oct '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
My favorite part was when he referred to himself as a "father" and the protesters as his "children". I'm not sure if that sounds as condescending to Egyptian ears as it does to American ones, but isn't that analogy basically the oratorical equivalent of training your army to goose-step? Does it ever lead to good things?
Sep '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
He claimed he would make sure an investigation of the causes of the violence would ensue. Does anyone seriously believe that a fair and thorough investigation won't lead right back to Mubarak himself and his secret police? It was the speech of a delusional narcissist who believes he IS Egypt.
He should complete the investigation right when OJ Simpson finds the real killers.
Dec '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Do you remember the pony-tail guy in the 1992 debates?
Bing gave me this video: http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/ponytail-guy-and-the-presidency/
Edited on Feb 10, 2011 at 6:51pmMay '10
Re: Worst ... Speech ... Ever
Given that it had two fewer applause lines than Obama's speech to the Chamber of Commerce, I'm inclined to agree.