With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
After much wrangling, Israel has approved the purchase of twenty F-35s from the US. The F-35 is a highly advanced, stealth-capable strike fighter that's expected to lock in Israel's aerial superiority in the region.
Much has been written about Israel's intentions toward Iran's nuclear program, some of it quite impressively researched. This hardware buy might appear to indicate that Israel is girding for battle (something I find deeply alarming on a personal level), but the planes won't be delivered until 2015. That timeline doesn't really prove anything regarding Israel's immediate intentions -- let's not over-interpret here -- but neither does any amount of theorizing in print, since no one knows (or will say, or should say) what clandestine work is being done by Israel or the US regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions. Real information -- the complete picture we would need to enable any of us to assess the odds of an imminent strike -- is by its very nature impossible to come by. And so, in the absence of a reliable clairvoyant, I hereby choose to believe that Israel's investment in her air superiority four years down the line is a reassuring development.
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May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Gird your loins! (as Biden would say). Of course Israel is looking out for long-term security. It's Israel. Always ready for war. Look at the neighborhood. Crammed with genuinely horrid people. But that doesn't rule out a strike on Persia.
We could have averted this imminent violence by taking a stronger line with Dinner Jacket. Could've been diplomatically handled. But we foozled it, and Israel's going to have to do it herself. Violently. Won't be pretty for anyone involved.
I don't get this "tick of your friends and keep your enemies closer" foreign policy. Despite the pinstriped trousers at the State Dept, foreign policy is really very simple, and described neatly on the tomb of Lucius Cornelius Sulla:
No Greater Friend. No Worse Enemy.
Jul '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
I have to blame Bush. He swore to keep nukes out of the hands of the Mullah's, but never followed through. I was naive enough to hope that his invasion of Iraq was just a feint to get our troops on the ground in preparation a strike against Iran.
Now, with an implacable enemy in the White House, Israel with have to go it alone.
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
The relationship is certainly testy, Kenneth, but I don't know that I'd go so far as to call the Commander-in-Chief our "implacable enemy". He did, after all, just sell us twenty F-35s.
May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Ooooh, one of my favorite topics...fighter jets. The reason you need the F-35 is to penetrate highly defended air space where a stealth platform is required. The Iranians are actively pursuing the SA-300 system (surface to air) and it is very good (comparable to our Patriot System). To penetrate airspace defended by those sorts of systems requires stealthy aircraft and the F-35 is a stealth platform. Once you take down that system other aircraft can then operate permissively. The F-35 and the F-22 are first-night-of-war-kick-down-the-door aircraft. They will get in and take down the enemy's air defenses, which then enables follow-on strikes from F-15s and F-16s, which are capable aircraft, but not stealthy. Israel has a lot of those. With the SA-300 system going in in any neighboring country in the Middle East Israel absolutely needs to have this aircraft.
May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Israel, Japan and Australia, some of our closest allies, have extreme interest in purchasing the F-22. But, the F-22 is not going to be sold overseas, because of the technology it carries. The F-35 gives you 70 or 80% of the capability of the F-22 with much less risk to our technological superiority. It was designed from the get-go as an exportable aircraft. The British have access to the F-35 sooner than Israel because they co-developed it. Lockheed is building it in Texas, but BAE and the British government put up billions to help develop it, so they get it first. The F-35 will be an outstanding aircraft, but the F-22 is the pinnacle of air dominance...not air superiority...air dominance. Bad guys can't even take off. You can be right over the top of the runway and he won't even know you're there. There's nothing like it on the planet.
May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Heck, I wish there were extreme interest in purchasing the F-22 domestically, but apparently that's not in the cards at the Pentagon. Here's hoping Lockheed keeps the blueprints handy.
May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Judith, have you read the Jeffrey Goldberg article, The Point of No Return, from the current issue of The Atlantic? It's long, but well worth reading. It has completely frightened me to the escalating situation in the Middle East and the long-term security of Israel. I'm curious to know your thoughts...and maybe you can reassure me.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186/1/
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Andrea, first of all, thank you for your fascinating comments above. I learned a lot from them. Where did you acquire this knowledge?
As to your question: I have indeed read Goldberg's piece (it's the second link in the post). It's scary all right, but I had to smile at his conclusion that the odds of Israel's striking Iran are about 50/50. In other words, neither he nor any of his sources knows one way or the other. We can analyze the information we have, but it is necessarily incomplete, so I prefer to err on the side of trusting the unknowns: that work is being done clandestinely to undermine Iran's nuclear program, for example. The decision to strike Iran, huge as it is, will not be made on the pages of the Atlantic.
I'm also hardwired to resist armchair psychology, so his whole thesis that Bibi might hit Iran preemptively in order to satisfy his father struck me as a little goofy. I know we don't have to look too far back to see a similar story play out, but in that instance too, I find the psychoanalyzing presumptuous and simplistic.
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
For me, there were two punches to the gut in Goldberg's piece. The first was that we're going to have to send commandos in to bring back evidence that the centrifuges were destroyed. The notion of anyone's sons or brothers or fathers going on a mission like that -- the level of danger involved -- makes me sick to my stomach. The other was the simple mention of the number of Jews in Israel today: a bit more than six million. The number obviously has a resonance for us, particularly in the kind of scenario under discussion.
Israel has a long history of preemptive action, which is largely why it still exists. A strike is definitely possible, but I still believe the odds are lower than 50%. Israel's army is governed by the principle of tohar haneshek, or purity of arms. Perhaps because every citizen is, was or will be a soldier, the IDF places an extremely high value on the morality of its actions. It will not rain destruction on another country unless Israel is under mortal threat, and I believe Israel is devising strategies we know nothing about to mitigate that threat.
I hope so, anyway.
Jul '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
A nuclear-armed Iran represents an existential threat not only to Israel, but to the United States, as well. The Mullahs are determined to bring down the Great Satan and our intelligence agencies have detected multiple Iranian tests of ballistic missiles launched from barges in the Caspian Sea. Their launch mode and trajectories indicate that they're testing rockets capable of striking the U.S. with an electro-magnetic pulse. Congress has heard testimony that such a strike would wipe out our entire electric grid and every un-shielded electronic device within the strike radius.
Such a strike would, it's estimated, result in the death of 80 to 90 percent of our population due to starvation within one year.
It only takes one or two missiles to reduce the U.S. to chaos.
Jul '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
He only approved the sale for two reasons: First, because defense contractors have enormous power in Washington. And second, because Congress fired a shot across his bow when it appeared his State Department was inclined to denounce Israel for their interdiction of the Ghaza Flotilla.
Make no mistake, Obama and his far-Left base hate Israel. They just need to disguise their animus for fear of losing their traditonally-loyal Jewish voters and contributors.
May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Judith Levy:
For me, there were two punches to the gut in Goldberg's piece. The first was that we're going to have to send commandos in to bring back evidence that the centrifuges were destroyed ...The other was the simple mention of the number of Jews in Israel today: a bit more than six million.
I felt that, as well. Also, the mention of the photograph of the Israeli F-15 Eagles flying over Auschwitz and the sad irony that they were 60 years too late. I'm sure I'm confusing Goldberg's article with a similar article I read by George Will around the same time. But, one of them also told about the PM's 2,800 year old ring with the inscription "Netanyahu". Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts with me.
May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
Judith Levy: Andrea, first of all, thank you for your fascinating comments above. I learned a lot from them. Where did you acquire this knowledge?
As to your question: I have indeed read Goldberg's piece (it's the second link in the post).
My fascination with fighter jets comes from spending five years with the 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing in San Diego, CA. My husband flew F/A-18 Hornets, then later flew F-15 Eagles for three years with the Air Force Reserves in St. Louis. He has flown many times with Israeli fighter pilots in training exercises and had very complimentary things to say about them. His other favorite was the Aussies. :-)
I apologize for missing your link in your post. Usually, I take the time to read the links, as well, but I had three children hovering over me waiting for their promised pancakes. Another minute and they would have begun actively revolting.
May '10
Re: With American Fighters, Israel Bets on Its Future
While always revolting, I'm glad they're not actively so.