Wishful Thinking: Democrats Keep the House!
Leave it to the New York Times. Though major pollsters and pundits from all sides of the political spectrum predict Republicans will in all likelihood take the House today, the New York Times' Nate Silver says that all is not lost for Democrats. In fact, there are "5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House." (Via Hot Air.)
Here is the Democrats' rosy scenario as Silver pictures it:
It was hard to pinpoint exactly when in the night things started to go wrong. But at some point, a trash can was knocked over in John A. Boehner’s office in the Longworth House Office Building. A half-hour later, a hole was punched in the wall at the Republican National Committee’s headquarters.
Republicans didn’t really have much reason to be upset. They were going to pick up somewhere between 29 and 34 House seats from Democrats, pending the outcome of a recount or two and the receipt of mail ballots in some Western states. They gained five Senate seats from Democrats, and won the governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida, among many other states. It had been a wave election, indeed — but a wave on the magnitude of 2006, rather than 1994.
For most of the evening, Republicans had still seemed quite likely to pick up the House, perhaps by some margin. Exit polls that (erroneously, it turned out) suggested a nine-point generic ballot win for the party colored the early coverage.
Silver then goes on to explain how Republicans might lose most of the races that they will probably win:
A scenario like this one is possible tomorrow — not particularly likely, but possible — just as a 77-seat Republican gain is possible. It’s probably a somewhat greater possibility than people realize.
(In fairness, on Sunday, Silver published a similar piece, but speculating about how Republicans could do much better than expected today.)
Over at Politics Daily, Patricia Murphy is more sober in her analysis of how the Dems will do:
The outlook for Democrats on Election Day has gotten so bad that estimates of the mayhem require metaphors only Mother Nature can supply. Will it be a wave or a tsunami? An early winter storm or a Category Five hurricane?
On Tuesday night, electoral math will decide which party controls each chamber. Republicans will need a net total of 39 pick-ups to take back control of the House and install John Boehner as speaker.
But the numbers will only tell part of the story for the next Congress. The rest will be revealed by the following four trends, personified by 10 races, that will determine the future for Democrats struggling to keep their power. If Democrats cannot limit their losses among their newest members, their most powerful members, those in the South, and among their record-breaking female contingent -- they can expect a blowout defeat Tuesday whose effects could last a decade or longer.
In other words, Dems will lose big--the question is just how big.
- Comment (3)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Wishful Thinking: Democrats Keep the House!
I think this captures the mood of the electorate.
See Initiative number 1069.
May '10
Re: Wishful Thinking: Democrats Keep the House!
The thing that causes me to be cautious is 1998, when we completely misread the mood of the electorate as well as the ability of the unions to push their members. That year, the Republicans were seriously campaigning in Senate races asking for a filibuster-proof majority so they could control Wild Bill. The electorate said "no" and the results were clear losses for the Right rather than anti-incumbent gains.
All the confident talk about inevitable massive pick-ups makes me nervous. I hope I am just excessively cautious and Nate Silver is dead wrong. There is certainly no solid evidence that cell phone users are massively non-land line (most I know have both) or disproportionately young and left. Those who are young and left also tend to be the types who don't vote much.
But the world will be fine if 1) Nancy Pelosi is retired, by any margin, and 2) Harry Reid loses despite the massive fraud being perpetrated on his behalf.
Jul '10
Re: Wishful Thinking: Democrats Keep the House!
Remember Nate Silver has an agenda. He is an employee of the New York Times.