Update: The latest poll puts Barrett and Walker near a statistical tie amongst likely voters. If the same people voted as in 2008, Walker would lose 49-50. Barrett narrowly wins independents (again, within the margin of error), with Walker's advantage coming from a predicted higher turnout amongst Republicans. If he wins, it will be because of supporters who go the extra mile in enhancing that turnout, and because of American prayers.
Wisconsin's recall election polls show us up an average of 6 points. Intrade shows us confident of victory. Incumbents win most of the elections they stand in. Walker was great in the debates. The reforms have gone well. There are unions and left leaning newspapers that have been unusually generous to us. There's a lot of reasons to be excited.
There are also reasons for terror. Wisconsinites in Democrat leaning areas got these through the mail. They tell you which of your neighbors voted in 2010 and which didn't. They emphasize that non-voters were the reason that Gov. Walker was elected. Given the, uh, boisterous nature of much of the recall support, it's a missive that is likely to concern some of those non-voters (the "we know where you live" message is clear), and it seems likely to be effective in persuading energized recall voters to talk to some of their neighbors. They don't have to turn out all that many of them to win.
Wisconsin's Voter ID laws have been suspended by Dane County judges, and if Walker wins this may be the last election in which fraudsters are able to have a really serious impact. Although Obama's been keeping his distance, there's a lot of grassroots support for Barrett in Chicago. We're jubilant, because we can see that the public sector unions are fighting for their lives, and that they're going to lose. The moment of having cornered the rat, though, is a moment too soon to rejoice in the rat's demise. A loss in Wisconsin would be the epitome of Friedman's advice, for the Democrats. They don't have to get the right people in office across America; they just need to get the people in office to do the union's bidding.
For those who can't bring themselves to call, who can't travel, can't stand guard at polls or get people to the booths, now is the time to do what you can and pray. Pray fervently and with luck we'll watch the results come in through Tuesday night and our flag will still be there.
Plus, the margin of victory is pretty important for this one. Fifty percent plus one is enough for elections where we just need to get someone into an office, but for elections that should steel the spines of governors and legislators across the country, it'd be nice to have a decent comfort zone.