Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Update: The latest poll puts Barrett and Walker near a statistical tie amongst likely voters. If the same people voted as in 2008, Walker would lose 49-50. Barrett narrowly wins independents (again, within the margin of error), with Walker's advantage coming from a predicted higher turnout amongst Republicans. If he wins, it will be because of supporters who go the extra mile in enhancing that turnout, and because of American prayers.
_____________
Wisconsin's recall election polls show us up an average of 6 points. Intrade shows us confident of victory. Incumbents win most of the elections they stand in. Walker was great in the debates. The reforms have gone well. There are unions and left leaning newspapers that have been unusually generous to us. There's a lot of reasons to be excited.
There are also reasons for terror. Wisconsinites in Democrat leaning areas got these through the mail. They tell you which of your neighbors voted in 2010 and which didn't. They emphasize that non-voters were the reason that Gov. Walker was elected. Given the, uh, boisterous nature of much of the recall support, it's a missive that is likely to concern some of those non-voters (the "we know where you live" message is clear), and it seems likely to be effective in persuading energized recall voters to talk to some of their neighbors. They don't have to turn out all that many of them to win.
Wisconsin's Voter ID laws have been suspended by Dane County judges, and if Walker wins this may be the last election in which fraudsters are able to have a really serious impact. Although Obama's been keeping his distance, there's a lot of grassroots support for Barrett in Chicago. We're jubilant, because we can see that the public sector unions are fighting for their lives, and that they're going to lose. The moment of having cornered the rat, though, is a moment too soon to rejoice in the rat's demise. A loss in Wisconsin would be the epitome of Friedman's advice, for the Democrats. They don't have to get the right people in office across America; they just need to get the people in office to do the union's bidding.
For those who can't bring themselves to call, who can't travel, can't stand guard at polls or get people to the booths, now is the time to do what you can and pray. Pray fervently and with luck we'll watch the results come in through Tuesday night and our flag will still be there.
Plus, the margin of victory is pretty important for this one. Fifty percent plus one is enough for elections where we just need to get someone into an office, but for elections that should steel the spines of governors and legislators across the country, it'd be nice to have a decent comfort zone.
- Comment (26)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
Comments:
May '12
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
James, great write up. There is an awful lot of optimism that Gov. Walker has it 'in the bag'. Typically this much optimism so close to the election results in complacency and that will crush any hopes for victory.
6% is not an insurmountable chasm and you correctly highlight - Wisconsin is fertile ground for voter fraud.
Enthusiasm is going to win this election and everybody (including professional contributors to this site) are putting their feet up on the coffin of Governor Walker's term if they believe the election is 'in the bag'.
Feb '12
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
James,
Are you sure that that you don't live in the Great White North?
Its as if you are my neighbor. We have the same fears and it seems you have been listen in on conversations I have across the fence.
Nov '10
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Agreed. Tactics over the last 48 hours or so may be critical. I just came across this:
influence
amount
influence
Admittedly, stale data. But the trend is stable enough to suggest that a winning tactic would be to hit the airwaves in the last day with a very simple message: This election is about whether Labour Unions should have even more influence than before in the way we run our country, our state, and our economy.
Referencing this object lesson might help too.
Edited on June 4, 2012 at 6:26amNov '10
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
The object lesson I link, BTW, references the same leaflet as you cite as a reason for terror. I beg to differ. What I mean by "referencing it" is simply to point out that the organization that distributed it is aligned with the union/democrat alliance pushing for recall, and that Republicans stand against that sort of intrusive and coercive tactic.
Give Wisconsinites a bit of credit: If such a piece of manipulative and threatening propaganda arrived in your mailbox, how would you respond? It may induce terror, but not in the Walker team's headquarters. A few voters may initially quake, but then it will incite a stronger backlash than the desired effect. And if the teacher's union grasps its significance it may induce some terror in their camp. Watch for their attempts at damage control.
I predict that Walker's team will spin that thing to their advantage and win over a lot of presumptive democrat supporters who had been weakly in favour of recall. Nobody likes a thug, and this letter is pure thuggery. A perfect illustration of why unions are falling from grace in the public eye.
Apr '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
R. Craigen:
Give Wisconsinites a bit of credit: If such a piece of manipulative and threatening propaganda arrived in your mailbox, how would you respond? It may induce terror, but not in the Walker team's headquarters. A few voters may initially quake, but then it will incite a stronger backlash than the desired effect.....
I predict that Walker's team will spin that thing to their advantage and win over a lot of presumptive democrat supporters who had been weakly in favour of recall. Nobody likes a thug, and this letter is pure thuggery.
I should have been clear that the terror I meant was my own, not the hypothetical voter. I do think that voters reading that letter are likely to be worried, though. I agree that thuggery is repulsive, but my study of labor history has not supported the thesis that "crime does not pay". Thuggery done well can be extremely effective, and this seems like competent evil.
It wouldn't be effective if the non-voters did not feel mildly guilty about not voting, or did not already lean Democratic. Since they likely have union sympathies, though, the backlash is likely to be limited. Targeting matters.
Apr '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
I'm also interested in this from a November perspective. These mailings, designed to intimidate donors, seem to have come too late for the recall, but could easily serve to suppress donations to upcoming campaigns. Remember California's Prop 8 donor abuse? There's going to be a lot more money this time, a lot more organization to the thuggery, and Wisconsin is providing us with a dry run. If their tactics appear to work, this will encourage them. We need to a: make sure that we win and b: by more than 6%. This is going to be a terrible, brutal, campaign. Winning Wisconsin for Walker is essential, and winning in a way that discourages thuggery is a big deal, too.
We're already getting headlines about Obama enemy lists for big donors. You can rest assured that there'll be campaigns against small-medium donors, too, and that a lot of people will be intimidated. We've got studies on this and they say that it's pretty effective.
I like that we're the good guys in this race (in both these races, and in the down-ticket affairs), but victory does not necessarily follow virtuous complacency.
May '10
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Wise counsel against overconfidence, yes, but let's not go all Chicken Little either. If your post draws at all from the latest Public Policy Polling data, there is less cause for alarm. PPP is a Democrat polling shop in Raleigh whose record for accuracy is, well, mixed. I consider their numbers to be more like an internal Dem poll. Case in point - PPP had the North Carolina marriage referendum tabbed as a close race. We all know how that went.
Dec '10
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Dont freak out too much guys, the internals of the PPP sample have more spin than a tiltawhirl.
Ed Morrissey at HotAir has a some analysis that puts a little water on the fire. PPP's wishful thinking combined with some good natured voter supression? Not to say that we shouldnt be encouraging everyone to get out a vote of course.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/04/ppp-poll-shows-walker-up-3-in-wi/
Mar '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
I think it's going to be razor thin simply because unions are so desperate about this election. They see Wisconsin as the Alamo. I think they recognize that if Walker wins, then it'll start a domino effect. States won't be afraid of them anymore. I was reading this morning that unions are flying people and money in from everywhere. New York unions flew in a large contingent of people this morning. This is going to be bitter and bloody, no doubt, and if Walker loses, I fear Nikki Haley is right; it'll soften the spines of many governors.
May '12
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Enthusiasm is key, but even if Gov. Walker loses it may not be the end of the world. The unions are having to go all in to make this happen, they can't afford to make every election the end of the world.
Ohio had a pretty tough battle regarding collective barganing and when the proposal failed the world didn't stop. In the end the unions will get crushed under their own weight. That said I am all for hastening it along.
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
So I'm in Chicago this week and wondering if I should head up to Wisconsin tomorrow and report from the ground ... Any Ricochet Cheeseheads planning anything interesting?
Apr '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
There were three companies that polled the Marriage Amendment. Elon University had the amendment failing in all 5 of its polls. National Research, Inc. had it passing 49-43% in its only poll. PPP had 7 polls, all of which showed the amendment passing, one by 61-34%. The final poll was 55-39%. The actual result was 61-39%. For a notoriously difficult subject to poll, getting the no vote precisely right seems kind of impressive.
I agree that we shouldn't despair, but the PPP poll isn't meaningless, and the other polls only suggest that we're likely to win, not certain. My first paragraph was meant to be pretty positive.
Apr '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
PConn: Dont freak out too much guys, the internals of the PPP sample have more spin than a tiltawhirl.
Ed Morrissey at HotAir has a some analysis that puts a little water on the fire. PPP's wishful thinking combined with some good natured voter supression? Not to say that we shouldnt be encouraging everyone to get out a vote of course.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/04/ppp-poll-shows-walker-up-3-in-wi/ ยท 1 hour ago
Hot Air says that the 3 point lead isn't very different from an earlier 5 point lead. This is true. It also says that turnout is important, and we shouldn't make too much of the additional poll. I think that this is essentially what I said; it's uncertain, and this latest poll (in my update) confirms that view).
Apr '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
BrentB67: Enthusiasm is key, but even if Gov. Walker loses it may not be the end of the world. The unions are having to go all in to make this happen, they can't afford to make every election the end of the world.
Ohio had a pretty tough battle regarding collective barganing and when the proposal failed the world didn't stop. In the end the unions will get crushed under their own weight. That said I am all for hastening it along. ยท 52 minutes ago
If the unions successfully topple a sitting governor in a recall election in retaliation for anti-union legislation, it is not the end of the world, but it would be very, very bad.
There's a lot of governors, and state legislators, and mayors, who would be significantly less keen to either pass anti-labor laws, or to support other politicians who did. It would be terrible for us electorally, and terrible for America in substance. The Democrats would become more in hock to the unions, and the Republicans more in fear. It'd likely cost us November, and put the House at risk. There could be worse things, but not many.
Jan '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Come on up Mollie, I'll be working the polls in Whitefish Bay (N. or Milwaukee). I posted about working at the Scott Walker Victory Center on Saturday - I'm anxiously optimistic, I'm confident our side isn't taking anything for granted. I'm hoping our get out the vote will exceed the 'Margin of Fraud'.
P.S. the weather is absolutely fantastic.
Jan '12
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
If Walker triumphs I will be buying several cases of beer and serving it to anyone that wants to toast the victory. However, our family lives up in northwestern Wisconsin, about 6 hours from Milwaukee.
Keep up the good work all -- we've got to win this election!
Apr '11
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Already voted and will be enjoying something more important at 5:04 and 11 seconds in Blue Mounds: first touch of the Venusian transit of the sun. Rain Date: December 1st, 2117. As Mr. Buckley was so fond of reminding us, there's a lot more to life than politics ... thank God.
May '10
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Thanks, James. I appear to have discredited PPP based on others' bad work on the NC amendment.
Feb '12
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
Mollie. I would hits the polls with you and Tom. However I'm in Vegas this week. I voted on Friday. Tom show Mollie a great white north greeting of brats and beer while the polka plays into the wee hours of Wednesday
Dec '10
Re: Wisconsin Is Not In The Bag!
James, what would you feel is "comfortable?" I agree that 51% is not enough to really make the point, but in your analysis of the national scene here going into November, what do we need to be able to really have a "mandate?" Or is obsessing about hard numbers on my part missing your point, is it really just "more is better?"