Wisconsin Contrasts
I am sitting about 25 miles from the Wisconsin border. My closest associate lives over there and commutes to Minneapolis to work, and our part time assistant is a Wisconsin native attending college in Minnesota. Many of my friends former classmates from when we were young live over the border in hated Packer Country.
I am seeing a study in contrasts, as the Left attempts to take its first major step in the strategic plan to overturn the 2010 election and thus sustain the unsustainable pre-Walker status quo.
I communicated with a sample of two Wisconsin friends today. One of them had to be reminded to go vote, but because she is a serious member of the Bar, she is appalled to see how the Wisconsin Supreme Court challenger candidate has basically announced her intention to find any excuse to overturn the new laws because she doesn't like them. Not based on legal or constitutional issues, based on result and the justice's personal policy preferences. Thus, my friend will vote for the incumbent, Justice Prosser.
My other friend is also a lawyer, but has not worked at it in years. She didn't need to be reminded to go vote. In fact, she posted on her Facebook page a reminder to everyone else to "vote as if your life depends on it". She believes that it is important for the courts to kill legislation she doesn't like and feels sorry for teachers who don't get regular raises just ofr showing up at work. When I asked her whether she thought it might not be a good idea to add a new tax increase on well-to-do small town dentists and their families to pay for the increased costs of government workers, she told me to drop it.
What do we know from this?
1) The left is far more inspired and mobilized in Wisconsin- putting the 2010 electoral results in limbo; and
2) They are relying on Santa Claus to fix the budget problems.
That means that Wisconsin is likely to go the way of Michigan. Need money? Don't slow spending, raise taxes. Companies move out, raise taxes some more to make up for it. End up with a few boutique tourist sites such as Door County and The Dells, and very little else.
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Sep '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Western Wisconsin re-elected their Obamacare-supporting leftist drone to congress in the midst of the 2010 wave. I would not extrapolate based on anecdotal evidence from that part of the state.
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Thanks for the post, Duane. Wisconsin's judiciary election reminds me of the initiative on the ballot in San Francisco in 2010 that would have required city employees to contribute some minuscule amount to their pension and health care plans. It seemed like a common sense solution to save the city from its crippling deficits, and it also seemed like most people thought it was a pretty decent idea. But the public unions were the ones who were most interested in the outcome of the initiative and so they rallied their troops, rolled out some outlandish propaganda campaign that basically claimed the initiative would kill children and destroy families, and made sure each and every city employee made it out to the polls. Though the initiative may have had majority support in public opinion polls, the people who actually showed up to the polls to vote were the ones who were most angry and who stood the most to lose.
I am not optimistic.
May '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
I've been told that construction workers in that snowy region work half the year and live off unemployment checks the rest of the time... every year. If so, and assuming other professions operate similarly there, I'm not surprised that many residents have developed a blind dependence on the nanny state.
The Left's penchant for organized enthusiasm is definitely a hurdle Republicans must overcome.
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Duane, your analysis sounds only too trenchant. I might add to the factors you mentioned the basic demographic contrast between the left and the rest of Wisconsin. The left tends to be concentrated in Dane County--particularly, of course, in Madison--where the tens of thousands of state employees live among many thousands of employees of the University of Wisconsin, forming a tight, self-reinforcing little culture. Up against them? The good people of nearly everywhere else, dispersed throughout the rest of the state, from Appleton to Oshkosh to Racine to all the farm country in-between. The left is articulate--it dominates the press. Everybody else? Well, there were a surprising number of sensible editorials in the Milwaukee newspapers while the Senate Democrats were hiding out in Illinois, so the press is by no means hard left. But it remains on the whole more sympathetic to big government than not.
As governor, Scott Walker commands the attention and resources to make his case. But Justice Prosser?
In short, it don't look good.
Would you keep an eye on this for us today, Duane? Any exit polling available yet?
May '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
I wish I had better contacts- the best person is Probably Prof. Althouse, who is right in Madison- she says voting appeared to be light when she was there, which would be a Good Thing: http://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/04/kloppenburg-vote-against-bill.html
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/04/election-day-in-wisconsin.html
Ann (who voted for Obama, but has gained some sanity since after marrying a TEA Partier) does suggest that Kloppenburg should recuse herself if she wins and the matter gets to the state supreme court, which makes sense.
I have no idea where to find exit polls, not that I would trust them. I just suffer waiting for the results.
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
In the first round, Prosser got 58% of the vote. I would not be shocked if he survived. If not, we should not panic. When any major change takes place, people get upset . . . for a time.
Aug '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Another Leinie barkeep ! Gosh I wish I could net walleye at night . Failing that, maybe I could be governor of Minnesota.
Pawlenty was certainly an anomaly. We do want to thank you for Pawlenty and Bachmann though, Lileks, half my family, potato sausage, Paul and Babe ,Stassen.
Wisconsin - Obdurate for Obama and Klutzy for Kloppenberg !
Big mo for the union ? Whadda they gonna do wid it ?
Edited on Apr 5, 2011 at 3:49pmMay '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Ohio suffers a similar problem. Last week Kasich signed Senate Bill 5, which is our somewhat stricter version of the Walker bill.....and today the first signatures are coming in to have a referendum to overturn the bill in November. The unions will get their signatures, no doubt, and at this early stage polling indicates the law is very unpopular. Amazing and depressing.
What all this indicates is that independents remain unconvinced or ignorant (or both) as to the nature of our problems. November did not represent a transformational shift in the country, I'm afraid. That will take more time (and more Ryan). For now, we're still subject to the whims of emotion-driven independents, who stubbornly refuse to take seriously their responsibility as citizens to learn the issues.
May '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Paul,
You have no idea how much I appreciate your words when I get down. Thanks.
Sep '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
You can follow the returns here.
Right now it is a 50/50 dead heat with 8% counted.
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Just flew from California to New York. My first act? Checking the returns in Wisconson. At this hour, 23 percent of the votes are in. Prosser's up--but barely. Fifty-one to 49.
Thanks for the website, Mark Belling Fan. I'll let you post the next notice. In the meantime, I'm biting my nails.
May '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Who are you talking about? Ron Kind?
Sep '10
Re: Wisconsin Contrasts
Peter Norman
Who are you talking about? Ron Kind? · Apr 6 at 12:37pm
Yeah.