Will it happen there?
As the democratic conflagration has continued to spread across the Arab world, many of us have felt compelled to pretend to be instant experts in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. To prevent hindsight bias, maybe we should start talking about Saudi Arabia now, before the protests begin.
This Friday, March 11th, is supposed to be Saudi Arabi's own "Day of Rage." Will it be able to take off? There are conflicting lines of thought. According to the New York Times, the whizzes in the state department expected kingdoms (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, etc.) to weather the democratic protests, while the faux-republics would fall. But I was pretty convinced by this article in Foreign Policy. Madawi Al-Rasheed writes:
Saudi Arabia is ripe for change. Despite its image as a fabulously wealthy realm with a quiescent, apolitical population, it has similar economic, demographic, social, and political conditions as those prevailing in its neighboring Arab countries. There is no reason to believe Saudis are immune to the protest fever sweeping the region.
Saudi Arabia is indeed wealthy, but most of its young population cannot find jobs in either the public or private sector. The expansion of its $430 billion economy has benefited a substantial section of the entrepreneurial elite -- particularly those well connected with the ruling family -- but has failed to produce jobs for thousands of college graduates every year. This same elite has resisted employing expensive Saudis and contributed to the rise in local unemployment by hiring foreign labor. Rising oil prices since 2003 and the expansion of state investment in education, infrastructure, and welfare, meanwhile, have produced an explosive economy of desires.
Like their neighbors, Saudis want jobs, houses, and education, but they also desire something else. Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in 2003, they have expressed their political demands in their own way, through petitions that circulated and were signed by hundreds of activists and professionals, men and women, Sunnis, Shiites, and Ismailis.
Obviously, Saudi Arabia is hugely significant to the Arab world in multiple dimensions -- geography, resources, political stature, symbolic importance, etc. The protests being organized by young Saudis on Facebook for next Friday could prove to be the most important yet. Do you think they will be successful? If not, will they at least create enough instability to destroy the global economic recovery with rocketing oil prices? And what are other potential dangers?
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Comments :
Mar '11
Re: Will it happen there?
If by "successful" you mean "will the protests overthrow the monarchy after 200 years?" then I don't think so. As usual, I'll believe Fuad Ajami. He says the monarchy has real support right now.
Re: Will it happen there?
When Saudi Arabia falls -- and it will -- it will be due to divisions within the ruling family.
Dec '10
Re: Will it happen there?
Professor Rahe is right, I believe, but the king is ill.
Trouble in the house of Saud is imminent, with or without the other current events.