Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
In a recent column in the Wall Street Journal, Governor Haley Barbour stressed how important it is that tea partiers and Republicans collaborate at the polls in November to thwart further destruction by the Obama administration and the Democratics. "It was tremendously important," Gov Barbour says, "that tea partiers did not run as independents or third-party candidates." Had they done so, he argues, they would have cannibalized the Republican Party, and almost certainly administered defeat to the friends of liberty.
If this year is any indication of the dynamic we can expect in 2012, the Tea Party has no intention of splitting off to form a third party. The Tea Party's strategy is revolution from within the two party system -- using the primary system to replace squishy old guard Republicans with more principled conservatives. And the primary victories of candidates like Joe Miller, Sharron Angle, and Carl Paladino provide evidence that the strategy works.
So, despite Americans' low approval ratings for both major parties these days, I feel comfortable betting that we won't see the emergence of a third party as early as 2012. Thomas Friedman begs to differ. And he's willing to wager that the third party that will emerge in 2012 won't come from the right wing, but from what he calls the "radical center."
...I continue to be astounded by the level of disgust with Washington, D.C., and our two-party system — so much so that I am ready to hazard a prediction: Barring a transformation of the Democratic and Republican Parties, there is going to be a serious third party candidate in 2012, with a serious political movement behind him or her — one definitely big enough to impact the election’s outcome.
There is a revolution brewing in the country, and it is not just on the right wing but in the radical center. I know of at least two serious groups, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, developing “third parties” to challenge our stagnating two-party duopoly that has been presiding over our nation’s steady incremental decline...
“If competition is good for our economy,” asks Diamond, “why isn’t it good for our politics?
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Jul '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
We already have a third party. It's called the Libertarian Party. And libertarian ideas are the impetus behind the Tea Party.
Historically, third parties are formed in protest against the failure of one of the two dominant parties to pay attention to strongly-held beliefs. We don't expect to replace a dominant party - we expect to punish them until they get the message.
The Greens punished the Democrats by costing them the Presidency in 2000.
The Libertarians punished the GOP by costing them three Senate seats (OR, MT and MO).
This time around, the Tea Party, energized by libertarian ideas, has punished a goodly number of GOP mainstays.
I think the GOP might be getting the message.
Aug '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Read the whole column. If parsed out, it's really unserious in the extreme. Friedman's critique -- if you can even call it that -- of Obama amounts to: It's a great start, but those nasty Republicans (and to a lesser extent BlueDogs) prevented him from enacting a full spectrum leftwing agenda. That needs to change, and my "raging moderate, third party independent" friends are just the ones to do it.
Except that makes them full-spectrum leftwing nuts. If they are the third-party independents he has in mind, then terrific! Let's continue to divide the Democrats as much as possible.
Jun '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
I think a great example is the ascendancy of Ronald Reagan. Reagan was so talented, and inspiring, that he probably could've run as an Independent and won two terms. Where Reagan being a Republican makes a difference is, his Vice President was able to follow on as President. Some maybe weren't all that inspired by George H. W. Bush, but because he was part of the Reagan legacy, and also had a major party behind him, we were all spared seeing President Michael Dukakis. The problem with Independents (in America) is, their success always depends on a charismatic leader, and sometimes all you have is a bad choice, a better choice, and some Independent that will get about 3% of the vote. That's when you need the infrastructure of a major political party. Either that, or you get President Michael Dukakis.
Jul '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Diane,
You just discussed the Tea Party and my blood pressure remained constant.
No Rise.
The Money Quote; "So, despite Americans' low approval ratings for both major parties these days, I feel comfortable betting that we won't see the emergence of a third party as early as 2012."
I think that the brow beating youve taken form the likes of me and EJHill are sinking in.
Jul '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Jaydee_007: Diane,
I think that the brow beating youve taken form the likes of me and EJHill are sinking in. · Oct 3 at 9:43pm
Uh, frankly, I thought Diane showed admirable restraint in not tossing the both of you for that "brow beating".
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Jaydee_007: Diane,
You just discussed the Tea Party and my blood pressure remained constant.
[...]
I think that the brow beating youve taken form the likes of me and EJHill are sinking in. · Oct 3 at 9:43pm
I'll let you in on my secret: About half of the time I write on Ricochet, I like to take on the role of devil's advocate in order to get people to articulate their political convictions and beliefs. I think everyone's better off when we're able to get a bunch of arguments out on the table and evaluate them on their merits. Plus, I always love a good dose of hearty debate.
But for the sake of your blood pressure, I thought we could all use a low key topic to discuss. ;)
May '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
I somehow think that Friedman's definition of center and mine, are ever so slightly different.
Jul '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Even Friedman's dog doesn't take him seriously anymore:
Friedman:
"Rex! Come! Come, Rex!"
Rex:
"Bugger off, Friedman. You're freaking irrelevant."
Aug '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Diane Ellis, Ed.:
If this year is any indication of the dynamic we can expect in 2012, the Tea Party has no intention of splitting off to form a third party. The Tea Party's strategy is revolution from within the two party system -- using the primary system to replace squishy old guard Republicans with more principled conservatives. And the primary victories of candidates like Joe Miller, Sharron Angle, and Carl Paladino provide evidence that the strategy works.
I think that's correct. The Tea Party doesn't seem interested in breaking off, but just holding the Republican Party accountable for its candidates. I'm not completely confident that the GOP won't just go back to "business as usual", but it would be disaster for the Tea Party to think they can become their own party and make significant inroads to power in government. It's better to continue to reform the GOP from the inside out. Oust all the candidates that are in the business of "go along to get along".
However, if the GOP doesn't wake up to the mess it has caused maybe the Tea Party would...
Edited on Oct 3, 2010 at 10:07pmRe: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Steve MacDonald: I somehow think that Friedman's definition of center and mine, are ever so slightly different. · Oct 3 at 9:58pm
Agreed. For Friedman, "radical center" seems to be codespeak for Barack Obama and the Democrats minus the whiners at the fringes who complain that Obama isn't getting enough done.
May '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
So Friedman's dog and Schrodinger's cat walk into a bar... Actually surprised that Friedman has a dog. Assumed a Krugmanesque cat. And thank God Rush's latest wife has got him a sturdy English bull instead of a cat named Pumpkin.
Peggy Noonan put her finger on why the Tea Party is taking over the GOP (not a moment too soon): there is no credible Republican establishment left. Takes two to have a civil war. Rem acu tetigisti, Dame Peggy.
This is why the Republicans lost the Northeast during the ambivalent years, and are now poised to make significant inroads.
Jul '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
I think Glen Reynolds has an excellent companion piece to this in his little I told you so in the Washington Examiner.
May '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
The Republican Party gets one last chance. If it regains control of the House from the party of Tax and Spend, and returns to being the party of Borrow and Spend, and earmarks, and lethargic go along to get along, they're done.
If the Repubican's betray their "Pledge" and goes back to business as usual, there will be a disastrous emergence of third and splinter parties come 2012. I'm not advocating it, or desiring it, but I am predicting it.
Sep '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
I wouldn't be so sanguine about the current solidarity the Tea Party is showing with the GOP. I think it is much more of a trial run to see if the party can be reformed. Just the strains brought out by the primaries have brought out a lot of rumbling about republican's unwillingness to embrace change. I'm not even sure that status quot till 20212 would be enough to keep large segments from peeling off and trying to find an alternative to what we currently have.
Jul '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Third party? Nah, most dejected people would just simply not vote.
May '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
Didn't Mama teach you not to goad old people like me? So, that's why you never reply to a straight question with a straight answer. Now, go to your room young lady. I'll call you when supper's ready...
Jul '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
EJHill
Didn't Mama teach you not to goad old people like me? So, that's why you never reply to a straight question with a straight answer. Now, go to your room young lady. I'll call you when supper's ready... · Oct 4 at 6:54am
Nothing sexist and condescending about that...
May '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
To quote Mel Brooks from The Critic, " I got a right to be loud, lady, I'm gonna die soon." That's the privilege of age...
May '10
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
The other factor in this equation are the many moderate or centrist Democrats who will not be happy to ride the Obama train to oblivion. When the magnitude of the problem becomes clear next month, will some begin looking for a more viable position?
Re: Will We See a Third Party in 2012?
The essential thing to understand about the tea party is that it points toward a vector along a different axis than the two parties. It's like trying to map something in three dimensions onto a two-dimensional plane. At the radical center of the preexisting format of American politics is something like Leader Bloomberg. Red Tory brainchild Philip Blond also speaks of a radical center, but it's only a cousin to the direction the tea party is pointing us in.