Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
Last week could not have gone better for the Obama campaign. The press coverage to which the administration and campaign have grown accustomed somehow became even more fawning when the President announced he was finally copping to being a supporter of redefining marriage to include same-sex unions. And that was just the first day. Then the Washington Post reported its bombshell story painting a teenage Mitt Romney as an anti-gay bully. Romney supporters remained somewhat calm about the President's announcement and the media onslought, prompting many to think that support for traditional marriage laws was a liability.
Take it from there CBS/New York Times poll:
Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney's slight advantage remains within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.
Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.
At least the Obama campaign has done a good job with campaigning for women's votes, right?
The survey also shows Romney leading Obama among women, with whom the president has consistently been ahead, prompting some complaints from Team Obama about how it was taken and whether it's accurate.
I would mock them for this complaint except that previous polls really did see dramatic support among women for Obama.
No matter what, this poll showing the cost of President Obama's same-sex marriage support and limits to his favorability has got to be pleasing to Team Romney.
Oh, one more thing. The New York Times reports:
Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed by The New York Times and CBS News since the announcement said they thought that Mr. Obama had made it “mostly for political reasons,” while 24 percent said it was “mostly because he thinks it is right.” Independents were more likely to attribute it to politics, with nearly half of Democrats agreeing.
Hmmm.
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Comments:
Apr '12
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
Yes, it is working. Obama is a very well spoken and smooth speaker, able to get across his deep thoughtfulness and care for all stakeholders in a political discussion. By setting the topics fr the media to leap on, he is throwing out juicy red steaks for the media watch dogs. It fills up the discussion time. Mitt needs to take a look at Stephen Harper's campaign advertising which was all attack, all the time and set the discussion themes. Although the CBC did not cover the topics, this advertising was on YouTube, and during comedy TV, etc. it did not feature te leader. The attacks were made by anonymous voices. The opposition leader was actually very similar to Obama having spent many years outside of Canada do they went after that fact. This guy dies not understand Canada. This guy is treating politics like his hobby and good for his career. He is an academic. He would be better in Foreign Affairs, etc. All of those points could be made about Obama and go at a lower level of voter emotions. Also, Romney needs to beachhead the campaign on soccer mum demographic.
Sep '10
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
"Distraction campaign" nails it. They want to keep the narrative on the social issues and make this election a referendum on enlightened Obama vs. backward Romney.
But it's not working. People don't really care about this stuff - not in today's economic climate at least. These arguments are so old, and the Obama campaign is crass and clumsy in its approach. They really do think people are stupid.
Edited on May 15, 2012 at 3:38pmMar '11
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
I think that Romney needs to go on the offensive on the economy and jobs. People maybe realizing that Obama is all talk and wants to distract from his record. ( This is supported by Independents in the above poll think the gay marriage thing was all political.)
Obama should get negative marks on the economy and isn't getting any real long term bounce from his distractions. He remains beatable.
May '10
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
All things to all people:
First black (Sorry, Bill!), First Gay, Lincoln, TR, FDR, Reagan and Messiah.
If he fails, it is the country's fault. He's smarter than anybody. He's smarter than Washington, Madison and Hamilton combined. His "vision" isn't 21st Century, it's so advanced it's 25th Century. He's Dr. Spock and Mr. Spock. And he killed Osama bin Laden with own two hands.
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
Obama's attempt to make this election a referendum on the sexual revolution is a sign of desperation. As Haley Barbour observed in a Ricochet podcast, Barack Obama cannot run on his record. My suspicion is that the moves aimed at firing up the Democratic Party's libertine base will alienate -- in many cases, permanently -- those inclined in the past for to vote for the Democrats for other reasons. I doubt that African-Americans will abandon Obama himself, but he may be paving the road for a lot of them to move away from the Democratic Party in the wake of this election.
May '12
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
Paul A. Rahe:
... I doubt that African-Americans will abandon Obama himself...
10 minutes ago
No but suspect turnout will be much lower than 2008. An not just among A-A's, he's been alienating voting blocs willy-nilly like a rank amateur.
Jun '10
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
Be still my heart. Could it really be that other segments of the electorate are finally beginning to Obama for what he is: the guy who wants to transform America into something they won't like?
I will remain calm.
Jan '11
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
One wonders what their strategy is.
We assume that Obama will get every single preordained Democrat state. But, given Obama's job performance and polling among independents, he may not get a single vote more.
So, is his strategy now to appeal to independents? Or has he already kissed them off? Maybe he's just trying to solidify what he's already got.
It seems to me that the attacks against Romney and the Republicans are really more suited to placate the base, rather than persuade wavering independents. The obnoxious name-calling, the over-the-top "war on women," etc., are belligerent attacks that normally turn off the independents - so why is he resorting to these tactics? Who is he actually appealing to? Independents or his own true believers? I'd say he's trying to solidify his base more than appeal to independents.
Dec '10
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
KC Mulville: One wonders what their strategy is.
We assume that Obama will get every single preordained Democrat state. But, given Obama's job performance and polling among independents, he may not get a single vote more.
So, is his strategy now to appeal to independents? Or has he already kissed them off? Maybe he's just trying to solidify what he's already got.
It seems to me that the attacks against Romney and the Republicans are really more suited to placate the base, rather than persuade wavering independents. The obnoxious name-calling, the over-the-top "war on women," etc., are belligerent attacks that normally turn off the independents - so why is he resorting to these tactics? Who is he actually appealing to? Independents or his own true believers? I'd say he's trying to solidify his base more than appeal to independents. · 12 minutes ago
I think he's solidifying his base early and will shape shift for independents later. Of course, an incumbent having to work this hard to shore up his base is a good sign for his opponent.
Apr '11
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
I don't think it's distraction. I think it's targetting. For a lot of gay Americans, the 100% unfounded homophobic haircutting (the homophobia part, not the cutting) was an extremely powerful hit. If he can shore up .25% of the vote a week for the rest of the campaign, he'll win easily. Closer to the day, it'll be more helpful to paint in broad brushstrokes, but for now it's not important to make a small difference to many people's minds (which will vanish before November) so much as to make a large difference in a small number of people's minds, and have those small numbers keep building up.
The exception is in defining Romney; that work was already mostly done for him by Newt, but it was important for him to keep up the work on that front, and he has been.
Nov '11
Re: Will Obama's Distraction Campaign Resonate?
It seems the Right news (blogosphere) is easily distracted. The intellectuals grab hold of the discussion not caring if they are being played even if the topic is important in other ways. Republicans have no over-arching strategy to accomplish real reform (long term) for greater liberty, much less even get good candidates in the running, and are becoming more and more reactive with the help of much of the Right media. The rest of Americans really wish most of these issues (esp. gay marriage, look at the votes and the stats) would just go away and cannot wait until November is over. Stay on topic. Smaller government, especially in taxation, will free everyone including homosexuals. Just leave us alone. I see no proof that Republicans have any real plan for this, have accepted the status quo, and the grand strategy is band aids plus continually being shocked and outraged at the NYT.