Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Is Obama a "lock in 2012"? I think it's too soon to tell. But the precocious Peter Beinart, writing in The Daily Beast, is already making his glowing prediction:
Arnold Schwarzenegger made headlines this week by declaring that “Obama will get a second term in office,” especially if Republicans win the House. You’ve got to hand it to the grand Teuton. Even when he says something blindingly obvious, he makes news.
I see Arnold's point. If Republicans win the House, and there's legislative gridlock, then voters might start feeling more at ease with the government, and Obama could get reelected. As Rob writes, "The American people like gridlock, which is why they vote for it so often."
But as for Beinart's reasoning, I can't quite jump on board.
Of course Barack Obama is likely to be reelected. For starters, American presidents usually get reelected. In the last 75 years, incumbents have lost a grand total of three times: in 1976, 1980, and 1992. And what did Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush all have in common? They had serious primary challenges within their own party (from Ronald Reagan, Ted Kennedy, and Pat Buchanan, respectively). The last president who lost reelection without a major primary challenge was Herbert Hoover in 1932.
That assumes Obama won't have a serious primary challenger. But hello: what about Hillary?
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Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Was Pat Buchanan really a serious primary challenge? I realize Buchanan and his voters were deadly serious in their critique of Bush the Elder, but I don't remember anyone thinking he had a chance in hell of winning the nomination.
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Good point, and that wouldn't be true if Hillary challenges Obama. Her odds are great. Certainly better than a Pat Buchanan's.
May '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
But surely that is a symptom not a cause? Serious primary challenges are symptomatic of weak, or ineffective or unpopular (with the party and/or the electorate) leadership. I concede that, if the 2010 elections indicate that the Democrat's brand itself is poisoned, some potential contenders may sit out 2012 and let another contender take the punishment from the electorate.
Edited on Oct 8, 2010 at 7:03amRe: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
So, provided the midterm election turns out the way we all think it will, you think that the Democratic presidential candidate in 2012, whoever it is, won't stand a chance?
Robert Dammers: But surely that is a symptom not a cause? Serious primary challenges are symptomatic of weak, or ineffective or unpopular (with the party and/or the electorate) leadership. I concede that, if the 2010 elections indicate that the Democrat's brand itself is poisoned, some potential contenders may sit out 2012 and let another contender take the punishment from the electorate. · Oct 8 at 7:02am
Edited on Oct 08 at 07:03 am
May '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Ironically, if you take actions and succeed, you weaken your position for continued electoral victory. Good governors (term used generically to apply to all levels) make things go well (Rudy G), and enable the election of lightweights (Bloomberg) who make other lightweights feel good.
After 9-11, it was obvious that if Bush was successful in keeping further mass murder events from occurring, the urgency and fear would dissipate, and people would go back to whining about whether food stamps should cover Cheetos.
If the Republicans win the House and perform well, assuaging the public anxiety over irresponsible financial management and putting the brakes on the inexorable march of ObamaCare, it is easy to see how Obama could be re-elected (especially if the opposition candidate is unimpressive, or worse, not "feeling" their "pain"), while the Republicans actually added to a Congressional majority.
May '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Just because something hasn't happened before... We weren't up against this practical debt ceiling in the previous instances. Assuming we've got "hand to hand combat" (possibly with bayonets) over the next two years, spending won't decrease appreciably, and will act as a continuing drag on the economy. I see no reason to doubt Obama's word that he fully intends a trench warfare stalemate.
The precious Peter Beinart? Really? (oh, wait, I read that wrong, sorry).
May '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
So it may take another two years of vetoes before we can really improve matters, is what I mean.
Jul '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Emily, I agree with you completely though even if Hillary doesn't run, I think he's likely to face what could end up being a far more credible challenge than anyone expects from the Left; all they really need is someone a bit less insane than Kucinich. If Feingold defies the odds and holds on to his seat, I'd keep an eye on him...If not, it may be someone who surprises us all. Maria Cantwell would make a certain sense to me, as would Howard Dean (who certainly seems to be up to something...)
I follow Peter Beinart religiously (mostly cause I think he's cute), and I've never known him to be right about anything. He's slavishly devoted to the President and is able to twist reality to justify his defense of Obama in ways that are often downright whimsical. He's always good for a laugh.
Jul '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
If Sarah Palin is the GOP nominee, then, yes, he will be re-elected.
Aug '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Serious challengers in the primary ? From the Democrat Party ?? Come on.
Do they have anyone ? Hillary is getting pretty long in the tooth. There aren't many stars left as they have all been locked up in a Vegas ( La Costa) hotel room with a roomful of union boys getting the group hug Hoffa style, really hard to wipe that tarnish off.
I think alot depends on this and other blogs to attract and hold audiences with the truth. If the MSM crumbles at the same rate. Imagine 2012 : Olby will be talking to Sean Penn daily on their ShowMe Sports and Katrina Loops Show. Soros ,in a desperate move, will have bought Fox. Oprah will have bought out Sumner Redstone. With only Snooki and Lileks having their own news shows,the Ipad channel will be cranking 20million viewers and 40 million listeners into podcasts that mix music,religion, and sex into a talky soap format like Potomac Shores.
McLuhan lurks. There's no equation for media like Moore's law, we better find it fast and adjust accordingly. Ricochet is a fine format, but how do you scale it up, like 1000 times bigger ?
Edited on Oct 8, 2010 at 9:47amJul '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
One Word; Tirangulation.
Clinton did it. Obama Won't!
It is exactly what re-elected Clinton, and why Obama is gone.
With the Tea Party influence it is also clear that the Republicans will not be nominating a milquetoast candidate like Bob Let's Make a Deal Dole.
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Robert Dammers: But surely that is a symptom not a cause? Serious primary challenges are symptomatic of weak, or ineffective or unpopular (with the party and/or the electorate) leadership. I concede that, if the 2010 elections indicate that the Democrat's brand itself is poisoned, some potential contenders may sit out 2012 and let another contender take the punishment from the electorate. · Oct 8 at 7:02am
Edited on Oct 08 at 07:03 am
This is undoubtedly right, and I agree with Jonathan Gilbert that Peter Beinart is nearly always wrong.
But you cannot beat somebody with nobody -- so we will have to find somebody good to run against Obama. I am not as certain as Kenneth that Sarah Palin would be a disaster, but he may well be right. What I am struck by is the number of candidates who deserve consideration. I did profiles of Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, and Mike Pence for BigGovernment.com, and that is just a start.
Jul '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
I think what kept President Bush Sr. from getting reelected was Mr. Perot.
Thinking about 2012 now is equivalent to people buying Christmas trees before Halloween.
May '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Beinart is also underestimating the inertia of the unemployment numbers. Even with an immediate and drastic uptick in hiring, unemployment will likely stick at 9%+ for a year or more due to previously discouraged workers getting off the sidelines.
And don't forget Afghanistan: July '11 will be here soon enough--unfortunately--at which time the yes-no-maybe bowl of mush that is the Obama war plan will be manifest.
And then there's Iran....and the deficit...and the further exposure of Obamacare... and maybe another dip into recession...and a million other things we can't predict.
So...
Jimmy Carter:
Thinking about 2012 now is equivalent to people buying Christmas trees before Halloween. · Oct 8 at 4:26pm
(but, like buying a Christmas tree, it's still fun).
Jul '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Jimmy Carter: I think what kept President Bush Sr. from getting reelected was Mr. Perot.
Thinking about 2012 now is equivalent to people buying Christmas trees before Halloween. · Oct 8 at 4:26pm
I think what kept Bush Sr. from being re-elected was a failure to say three words...
READ MY LIPS.
Not the first time, the second time, when it counted!
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Duane Oyen: Ironically, if you take actions and succeed, you weaken your position for continued electoral victory. Good governors (term used generically to apply to all levels) make things go well (Rudy G), and enable the election of lightweights (Bloomberg) who make other lightweights feel good.
After 9-11, it was obvious that if Bush was successful in keeping further mass murder events from occurring, the urgency and fear would dissipate, and people would go back to whining about whether food stamps should cover Cheetos.
If the Republicans win the House and perform well, assuaging the public anxiety over irresponsible financial management and putting the brakes on the inexorable march of ObamaCare, it is easy to see how Obama could be re-elected (especially if the opposition candidate is unimpressive, or worse, not "feeling" their "pain"), while the Republicans actually added to a Congressional majority. · Oct 8 at 7:40am
I totally agree. Which is why a (maybe) new Republican congress should start by making some bold moves. Bold moves on our tax system -- flatter, fairer -- and bold moves on our entitlement system -- less, smaller, optional, more private. We'll know they're doing well when Obama gets more popular.
Jul '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
Rob Long
I totally agree. Which is why a (maybe) new Republican congress should start by making some bold moves. Bold moves on our tax system -- flatter, fairer -- and bold moves on our entitlement system -- less, smaller, optional, more private. We'll know they're doing well when Obama gets more popular. · Oct 9 at 12:25am
Yes, but with Attitudes Like This, That's NEVER Gonng to happen.
Edited on Oct 9, 2010 at 7:39amAug '10
Re: Will Obama Get Reelected in 2012?
The other thing they all had in common was that they're recent presidents. One could just as easily say that of the last six presidents, three were single-term. Or four out of the last eight, or five out of the last ten.
In a country as divided as ours, especially one in which the people frequently notice the contempt in which the elites hold them, it's not surprising when they decide to thrown the bums out. They're about to do it again.