Will Anything Save the EU?
Via HotAir, I see Georgetown's Prof. Charles Kupchan -- the man who once proclaimed The End of the American Era -- has now taken ruefully to the Washington Post to announce the impending end of the European Union. Gone are the heady days of 2002, when Kupchan's crystal ball informed us that
The coming clash between the United States and the European Union will doubtless bear little resemblance to the all-consuming standoff of the Cold War. Although military confrontation remains a remote prospect, however, U.S.-EU competition will extend far beyond the realm of trade. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are destined to vie for control of the international monetary system. Washington and Brussels will just as likely lock horns over the Middle East. Europe will resist rather than backstop U.S. leadership, perhaps paralyzing the World Bank, the United Nations, and other institutions that since World War II have relied on transatlantic cooperation to function effectively. An ascendant EU will surely test its muscle against America, especially if the unilateralist bent in U.S. foreign policy continues. A once united West appears well on its way to separating into competing halves.
Make that a descendant EU. Today, Kupchan laments,
Buying time may be the best the E.U. can do for now, but its slide is poised to continue, with costs even for those outside Europe. [...] European politics will become less European and more national, until the E.U. becomes a union in name only. This may seem no great loss to some, but in a world that sorely needs the E.U.'s aggregate will, wealth and muscle, a fragmented and introverted Europe would constitute a historical setback.
What went wrong? (And let me be clear: I'm all in favor of a united, prosperous, and confident Europe. A Europe that knows how to take its own side in an argument and even how to win would greatly help, not harm, American interests.) The answer is simple: so long as socialist dreams power the EU, Europe's will will be sapped, its wealth will be squandered, and its muscle will atrophy. The return to nationalism in Europe is proof of nothing so much as the recognition among Europe's beleaguered citizens -- especially the young -- that the masters of Project Europe have fallen perilously out of touch with the fundamentals of strength, freedom, flourishing, and public order.
That's not to say parts of Europe won't always be a little more social-democratic than America. (Or a lot.) Local conditions far more favorable to controlled experiments in lefty living have grown up over long periods of time in places like Sweden and France. But there is no successful abstract model of socialist or social-democratic rule. Wherever it works, to the degree that it works at all, it works because it satisfies the specific longings and suits the specific idiosyncrasies of a nation of people. Europe is not a nation, and that requisite specificity is nowhere to be found. Or, rather, the only place it is to be found is in Europe's bureaucratic crony class, a gaggle of administrators incapable of building a viable European nation-state.
Warts and all, the EU once looked poised to accomplish something that no person, no ruling class, and no other institution could accomplish: getting Europeans to think first and foremost as Europeans. But the implications of that kind of thinking -- an agenda designed to consolidate, defend, and promote the interests of European civilization -- are increasingly at odds with what European officialdom can tolerate. I don't know if anything will save the EU. But only a turn to the right -- and not the petty, fanatical far right of Europe's national and subnational parties -- can save Europe from decaying into a nice, dead dream.
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Aug '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
What will? What wealth? What muscle?
Jul '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
I don't blame Dr. Kupchan for changing his mind, we should credit him for it. His recent observations on the EU are spot on. A united Europe's political raison d'etre, an existential Communist threat to the east, has been extinguished for decades, thus taking care of the will. The recent recession has shown that the social-democratic system of wealth generation is a fantasy built on the guaranteed muscle of the US. Plus, the anti-Americanism of most of Europe's populations is only self-defeating in the long-run, as they have yet to recognize that even after the Cold War the US is the best friend they've got.
Jun '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
Kupchan misses the point that Mark Steyn always makes so well about the true affects of socialism. When the system reaches critical mass the shear weight of bureaucratic rules and regulations creates a logjam that precludes the average citizen from using his personal initiative or applying his common sense. Steyn's column about trying to move a casket from hearse to church against the dictates of the Health and Safety Ministry illustrates the point with comic absurdity. I wish I could provide a link. Suffice it to say that eventually societal paralysis sets in because anything not expressly permitted by government becomes illegal.
It all sounds quite humorous until you look at the consequences. The average citizen has to break the law to get anything done. The economy answers with the creation of black markets. All of a sudden you find yourself living in a society of lawbreakers. Socialism makes criminals of everyone as the only game in town becomes how to beat the system. The moral order begins to decay because the populace reacts in self-interest against unfair laws. Eventually you face a societal breakdown. Must we repeat the lessons of the Soviet Union? I suppose we must.
Jul '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
The original idea of the EU was to eliminate the economic inefficiencies of tariffs and other barriers to trade. No harm there. But it soon became obvious that the political nation-state was itself a barrier, as farmers and other producers in Belgium or France lobbied their legislatures for protection or preferment.
Overcoming this required - as well-meaning schemes seem always to do - a bigger, more powerful European Union bureaucracy, with more control over people's lives.
Pretty soon, the sheer inefficiency of the new, overweening EU bureaucracy outweighed any putative economic efficiencies.
The crowning touch of the EU, of course, was to be the common currency - the Euro. But as we've seen, the happy folks of Greece and Spain have gotten in the habit of debasing that currency, to the economic disadvantage of the harder-working Germans. Totally predictable, of course, but those who dream grandiose dreams cannot be deterred by such piffles.
We're on our way their ourselves, by the way, with California and New York playing Greece and Spain at the expense of the thrifty states.
The smaller the government, the closer to the citizen, the more the people will be free.
May '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
James Poulos, Ed.: Via HotAir,
Warts and all, the EU once looked poised to accomplish something that no person, no ruling class, and no other institution could accomplish: getting Europeans to think first and foremost as Europeans.
I agree with all of your post, with the exception of the statement above. If your implication is that it was on its way to eliminating European nationalism, I think you're being overly idealistic. I don't think anyone who's spent ample time in Europe would find national identities all that diminished. Granted, this nationalism is obviously less militaristic than previous incarnations. Although, I'm not sure that can be attributed to the EU so much as WWII.
Furthermore, I'm not sure many outside of Germany and France were all that thrilled with the EU as a political Union. The economic union was well supported, but there was a pretty widespread hesitancy, particularly in the East and Britain, against moving further with the political union. Without firm support, it was always going to remain precarious.
Edited on Aug 30, 2010 at 7:26amMay '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
Kenneth: The original idea of the EU was to eliminate the economic inefficiencies of tariffs and other barriers to trade. No harm there. But it soon became obvious that the political nation-state was itself a barrier, as farmers and other producers in Belgium or France lobbied their legislatures for protection or preferment.
· Aug 30 at 7:19am
The other major problem was the way the expansion and consolidation of the EU was basically a giant buyout. In order to overcome much of the widespread hesitancy to the political union the wealthier states had to dole out the economic goodies. Which, this being Europe, instead of open access to markets as a means to build self reliance, amounted to socialist goodies ranging from welfare state subsidies to overpaid EU bureaucracy jobs for the legion of European social science students unqualified for anything else. Greece, et al were given these goodies in return for allowing annoying environmental regulations and social engineering programs for denationalization they otherwise really couldn't care much less about. Now the large states are obligated to pay the bill. The Germans, hard working or not, put this on themselves.
Jun '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
Claire's "Menace in Europe, Why the Continent's Crisis is America's Too" has much to say that bears on this discussion. The litany of European wars over the centuries she recounts is horrifying. She makes clear that the EU is a project to pacify Europe through economic integration, not just a free trade union. Of course, if they do try to go for each other's throats yet again, we would have to loan them an army.
Jul '10
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
Have you ever met an Italian or a German or a Spaniard who defines himself as a "European"? Thought not.
We're a tribal species, defined by language, culture, territory and common history. Always have been, always will be.
The singular exception was - note the was - the United States, where we defined ourselves by common ideals. But sadly, E Pluribus Unum has been shattered into contending fragments, as various tribes contend for political and economic advantage, to the delight of our ruling elites.
Re: Will Anything Save the EU?
N.B. Ilya Somin at Volokh has more: