Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
Former Reagan speechwriter--and, in the interest of disclosure, one of my oldest friends--Clark Judge, writing in today's Wall Street Journal:
Congressional tea party Republicans hold a stronger hand than anyone realizes. They speak for a large group of voters who have been swinging back and forth between the parties for more than a decade, determined the last three elections, and are likely to determine the 2012 outcome.
As early as 2005 at least one pollster—Kellyanne Conway—reported that part of the Bush 2004 vote was becoming disaffected over revulsion at federal spending. After the 2006 GOP debacle, then Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman told his troops they had got out their vote, which, as he said, then voted for the other guys.
Those same voters stayed with the other guys in 2008. But by 2010, the new Obama administration's multiple trillion-dollar bailouts and stimulus packages had driven them back toward the GOP, with one hitch. They still didn't trust the party and its officeholders.
The national tea party movement is just the most vocal element in this much larger wave. By and large, polling has not captured it. Pollsters follow the movements of demographic groups or the changing preferences of party loyalists and independents. They typically do not try to identify something like Bush voters of 2004 who became Obama voters in 2008 and GOP House voters in 2010. The tea party is the first broadly based American political insurgency since California's Proposition 13 in the 1970s. Sure, its fervor will make the old guard uncomfortable, but intensity is what the GOP needs.
In short, the tea party movement is Reaganism updated.
Intensity is what the GOP needs.
Two weeks to go until Treasury Secretary Geithner's deadline August 2 deadline for raising the debt ceiling. This gets interestinger and interestinger...
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Jul '10
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
You have perceptive friends.
So what are the chances after running as the party of limited government for so long, the GOP will repeat their blunders of the last decade and risk a real, populist rival party emerging to challenge the Washington parties?
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
It seems as though Clark Judge is defining Tea Party voters as those who voted for Bush in '04, then Obama in '08, and then GOP in '10. While certainly "swing" voters, those aren't Tea Partiers. I think it's more likely that a Tea Partier stayed home in '08 than voted for Obama.
Perhaps I'm just reading into his piece analysis that isn't really there...
Oct '10
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
I thought we just needed someone who can win a blue state.
Jul '10
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
Diane Ellis, Ed.: It seems as though Clark Judge is defining Tea Party voters as those who voted for Bush in '04, then Obama in '08, and then GOP in '10. While certainly "swing" voters, those aren't Tea Partiers. I think it's more likely that a Tea Partier stayed home in '08 than voted for Obama.
Perhaps I'm just reading into his piece analysis that isn't really there...
It can be interpreted that way, and I know of people who followed that pattern, although not strictly on Tea Party logic. Reach across McCain was such a phenomenally weak candidate from an economic and oppositional point of view that, given the opportunity to vote for the end of racism in our time or one more grand standing careerist from the other party of Washington, they discounted those ridiculous rumors of socialist extremism and chose history. To their eternal sorrow.
The Tea Party is not all disaffected libertarians or Goldwater romantics. There is a chunk of Dems as big as the chunk of independents. Most polls give a 70-15-15 split on party affiliation. At this point, almost anyone that is numerate is leaning Tea Party.
Jun '10
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
Todd
I thought we just needed someone who can win a blue state. · Jul 18 at 3:04pm
Reagan won 49 states with his style of optimistic conservative intensity. Does that count?
Mar '11
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
I hope so - but spengler is depressing reading on how Mr Obama may win against the Tea Partiers (of which I count myself one).
Dec '10
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
Sisyphus
At this point, almost anyone that is numerate is leaning Tea Party. · Jul 18 at 3:28pm
I hope that is at least a 51% majority, but we have had public education for a long time.
May '10
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
Diane Ellis, Ed.: It seems as though Clark Judge is defining Tea Party voters as those who voted for Bush in '04, then Obama in '08, and then GOP in '10. While certainly "swing" voters, those aren't Tea Partiers. I think it's more likely that a Tea Partier stayed home in '08 than voted for Obama.
Perhaps I'm just reading into his piece analysis that isn't really there... · Jul 18 at 2:50pm
The only rationality one could assign to this voting patern would be something like: "The Republicans are corrupt and incompetent, so I'll now vote Democrat" in 2008. Then, in 2010, "Hey, the Democrats are corrupt and incompetent, too. Hmm, perhaps government by its nature is corrupt and incompetent, so now I'll vote for whoever's promising to shrink it."
That would be progress.
Oct '10
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
Scott Reusser
Diane Ellis, Ed.: It seems as though Clark Judge is defining Tea Party voters as those who voted for Bush in '04, then Obama in '08, and then GOP in '10. While certainly "swing" voters, those aren't Tea Partiers. I think it's more likely that a Tea Partier stayed home in '08 than voted for Obama.
Perhaps I'm just reading into his piece analysis that isn't really there... · Jul 18 at 2:50pm
The only rationality one could assign to this voting patern would be something like: "The Republicans are corrupt and incompetent, so I'll now vote Democrat" in 2008. Then, in 2010, "Hey, the Democrats are corrupt and incompetent, too. Hmm, perhaps government by its nature is corrupt and incompetent, so now I'll vote for whoever's promising to shrink it."
That would be progress. · Jul 18 at 4:26pm
How about, whoever is credibly promising to shrink government? Which excludes many Republicans, but not MBach, probably not Pawlenty, who knows with Romney, who cares with the others?
Jun '11
Re: Why the Tea Party is the Solution, Not the Problem
"This gets interestinger and interestinger..."
Wow. What's a $3.58 paying member gotta do around this joint to get some spelling?