Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
In a blog post over at NY Mag Frank Rich, who obviously has no interest whatsoever in seeing a Republican president elected this fall, argues the case for why Santorum is stronger against Obama than Romney:
"As the political press tells us constantly, Romney would do far better among independents and moderates. And he would indeed, in places like — shall we say? — Westchester County, Brookline, Bethesda, Greenwich, Grosse Pointe, and Brentwood. But the election isn't going to be decided in blue-state enclaves. This election is about places like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. And among working-class white voters whom the Republicans need to win in swing states, who is going to inspire more enthusiasm — a (sort of) working-class Catholic from Pennsylvania or the patrician Mormon venture capitalist from Massachusetts who is now best known for laying off workers? Public Policy Polling surveys have for months consistently showed Mitt doing better than each successive non-Mitt in a face-off with Obama. But this week that pattern was broken when PPP found that Santorum would actually be a slightly stronger candidate than Mitt. (The PPP poll also shows both Romney and Santorum losing to Obama, by the way.) And where it counts most on the electoral map, I agree that Santorum could well be the stronger candidate. Though, for me, that's something of a distinction without a difference, given my conviction that Romney has always been a paper tiger."
Am I the only one who finds such analysis coming from a liberal pundit (who, let us not forget, is writing for an audience of liberals) to be a bit startling?
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Even a blind pig finds a truffle now and then.
Romney may be a stronger candidate against Obama in the heavily blue states of the West Coast and coastal Northeast. But Obama would still beat him soundly in those states because the majorities there are predisposed to a Progressive Democrat more than to a moderate Republican.
In the Rust Belt and flyover states and the South, Santorum would do much better. There are plenty of "bitter clinger" Democrats in those states, and they would like to have an alternative to Obama who speaks to their concerns. Santorum does that far better than Romney does.
Apr '11
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
For the first time ever, I actually agree with Frank Rich. Maybe I better rethink my support for Santorum.
Nov '11
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
He's only saying that to fool you into voting for Santorum.
(At least, that's what everyone would say if he argued Romney were stronger :)
Both of these men have obvious strengths and weaknesses, and we can't tell how events might favor one or the other.
My gut instinct still says that Santorum would be more likely to lose; but I can't nail it down enough to be certain I should trust my instinct.
Nov '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
The only part I found interesting was the comment in the poll:
Poll respondents claim to have voted for Obama by only two points in 2008, versus his actual seven-point victory over John McCain.
I'm curious as to what could cause that large an error in a poll of over 1000 people.
Dec '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Frank Rich? Please.
SANTORUM CAN'T WIN. ROMNEY PROBABLY CAN'T WIN. Read John Hinderaker, Feb 9, Powerline. I concur. We have done this to ourselves. Congrats.
Nov '11
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
BKelley14: Frank Rich? Please.
SANTORUM CAN'T WIN. ROMNEY PROBABLY CAN'T WIN. Read John Hinderaker, Feb 9, Powerline. I concur. We have done this to ourselves. Congrats. · 8 minutes ago
It is too soon to tell.
Since about July last year, I've thought Obama's reelection was probably more likely than not -- partly because of Republican division. But "more likely" and "probably" do not mean certain, by any means. We have, at the least, a budget fight, a recall election, and developing crises in Europe and the Middle East which could reshape the whole scenario.
Suppose we have a 40% chance of winning -- it's a chance, and one well worth fighting for. We should be working to increase our chances, and save the finger-pointing for mid-November.
Nov '11
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
HalifaxCB: The only part I found interesting was the comment in the poll:
Poll respondents claim to have voted for Obama by only two points in 2008, versus his actual seven-point victory over John McCain.
I'm curious as to what could cause that large an error in a poll of over 1000 people. · 22 minutes ago
Sometimes people will "forget" that they voted for a particular candidate... if a lot of them are reluctant to admit voting for the guy, that's probably a good thing.
Mar '11
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
HalifaxCB: The only part I found interesting was the comment in the poll:
Poll respondents claim to have voted for Obama by only two points in 2008, versus his actual seven-point victory over John McCain.
I'm curious as to what could cause that large an error in a poll of over 1000 people. · 22 minutes ago
Clearly, they are under-polling the dead vote in Chicago.
Dec '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Leigh, Santorum can't win. Independent women won't vote for him.
Apr '11
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Robert Costa has a similar article at NRO. Here
Dec '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Keep telling yourself that. Repeat it when you rise up and when you lie down. Bind it on your hand, wear it as a frontlet between your eyes, and inscribe it on the doorposts of your house. Remember it when you go out and when you come back.
And then maybe it will come true.
Aug '11
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
BKelley14:
Read John Hinderaker, Feb 9, Powerline. I concur. We have done this to ourselves. Congrats.
You're reading the wrong blog. Try this one.
Jul '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
I have spent years building an immunity to iocaine powder.
Jul '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
HalifaxCB: The only part I found interesting was the comment in the poll:
Poll respondents claim to have voted for Obama by only two points in 2008, versus his actual seven-point victory over John McCain.
I'm curious as to what could cause that large an error in a poll of over 1000 people. · 59 minutes ago
ACORN
Dec '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Every so often liberals forget themselves and stumble on the truth. Of course, Rich didn't carry the argument all the way through to the inevitable conclusion about Obama. Just as Santorum appeals to the working class and Romney doesn't, so too an arrogant super left wing quota-baby yuppie will surely turn off the middle of America.
There is an old American saying. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me!!!
The American people aren't going to get fooled by the fool in the White House twice.
Santorum can beat Obama.
Regards,
Jim
Jul '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Our chances as a Haiku:
Mitt or Rick can win.
Barry will make sure it's tough.
Pandering matters.
May '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
I simply don't know.
All along my evaluations of the non-Romneys were based first and foremost on whether they could win here in OH. I came to have no doubt that each successive one -- Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich -- could not, and so I judged Mitt to be the only option. And I stand by those judgments.
But I honestly never thought Santorum would get legs, and he's proving to be different. He's an informed, serious, controlled adult in a way that those others weren't. He could win OH, I think. I still suspect Romney would be better here, but I don't know it like I did with those others. They both certainly would grab a different section of the independents, pretty much as Frank Rich describes (though he fails to note that OH too has plenty of those upscale suburban econ-conservative/social-lib voters).
The wild card is women. I don't share BKelley14's certainty that Santorum would repel them, nor Stuart's certainty that he wouldn't.
One thing is for sure: He needs to be happier warrior. More smiling, less of that I-just-bit-a-lemon look.
Edited on February 16, 2012 at 5:44amSep '10
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
BKelley14: Frank Rich? Please.
SANTORUM CAN'T WIN. ROMNEY PROBABLY CAN'T WIN. Read John Hinderaker, Feb 9, Powerline. I concur. We have done this to ourselves. Congrats. · 2 hours ago
I remain unconcerned about such worries as far as Santorum goes. The attacks I see available to Obama against Santorum are the generic ones - he's a religious extremist, a gun nut and a homophobe. Meh. The real campaign hasn't started yet and Europe is only starting to explode.
There are still lots of cards left to be dealt.
I like Santorum.
Feb '12
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
Independent married women will. He'll have more trouble with single female voters. But that's typical of the Republican-Democratic divide: married women tend to vote Republican and single women tend to vote Democratic.
Feb '12
Re: Why Santorum Is Stronger Against Obama Than Romney
DrewInWisconsin
BKelley14:
Read John Hinderaker, Feb 9, Powerline. I concur. We have done this to ourselves. Congrats.
You're reading the wrong blog. Try this one. · 2 hours ago
Agreed. Powerline hasn't been as good since Paul Mirengoff left, and their unquestioning support for Romney is uninteresting. (Thoughtful support for Romney, or any other candidate, would be interesting.) I might return to Powerline more after the election.