Why Romney Will Win
Think Obama is invincible? Think again. This is, after all, a president who argues that today’s tax and regulatory policies will materially affect sea level and global average temperature a century hence but not next year’s economic output.
President Obama expected to run for reelection in a reprise of Ronald Reagan’s 1984 campaign. Like Reagan, Obama took office at the start of a deep recession. Like Reagan, Obama took bold legislative action and donned the mantle of “Great Communicator,” hitting the hustings to deliver speech after speech linking his policies to economic recovery. And, according to leftist orthodoxy, a strong recovery was inevitable: the deeper the recession the stronger the subsequent rebound.
Think of it as the astronomical model of economics. Like planetary motion, economic growth waxes and wanes in predictable fashion. From this perspective, Presidents Reagan and Clinton each exploited a natural oscillation, cruising to reelection on the back of a business cycle on the upswing. The same phenomenon that, on its downstroke, crushed an unlucky George H.W. Bush in 1992. Policy? Pshaw. Reagan cut taxes while Clinton raised 'em, but both were charismatic speakers and therefore effective in earning political credit for fortunate timing.
That was the plan, anyway. But it isn't exactly Morning in America right now, is it? Fortunately, Mitt Romney seems intent on reminding the electorate of this fact early and often.
We know that this election is about the kind of America we will live in and the kind of America we will leave to future generations. When it comes to the character of America, President Obama and I have very different visions.
Government is at the center of his vision. It dispenses the benefits, borrows what it cannot take, and consumes a greater and greater share of the economy. With Obamacare fully installed, government will come to control half the economy, and we will have effectively ceased to be a free enterprise society.
This President is putting us on a path where our lives will be ruled by bureaucrats and boards, commissions and czars. He’s asking us to accept that Washington knows best – and can provide all.
We’ve already seen where this path leads. It erodes freedom. It deadens the entrepreneurial spirit. And it hurts the very people it’s supposed to help. Those who promise to spread the wealth around only ever succeed in spreading poverty. Other nations have chosen that path. It leads to chronic high unemployment, crushing debt, and stagnant wages.
President Obama is off his game plan and scrambling for his political life as Romney begins his blitz. Who do you think will win the game? My money is on Romney.
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Comments:
Jan '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
I think Romney has a good chance at winning. Many people wax nostalgic about Reagan - forgetting at the time that he was demeaned as "Ronnie Raygun", associated with the Bonzo movies, astrology by proxy, etc. With Fehrnstrom behind the Romney curtain, I like what I see so far. Time for another Mike Murphy centered podcast!
May '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Oh, from your lips to God's ears.
Apr '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
It is worth the extra 2 minutes to read the whole speech. I like what I am seeing and hearing so far. Romney wasn't my first choice but I am beginning to have more hope.
Apr '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Obama has been at 50% in Gallup for three days now (thats higher than Bush was on the day he was reelected). He has flirted with that mark a few times over the past few months, but now he has it and is holding it. For whatever reason, voters simply do not connect the poor state of the country with his performance. My guess is that blacks and hispanics vote simply based on tribe, and white voters will not dare say they disapprove of the job the first black president is doing. "Firing" the first black president is just going to feel dirty, and they know it. Getting enough of them over that psychological barrier is going to be extremely difficult, and might well prove impossible.
Romney has absolutely tanked in Gallup over the past week, a massive fall in only 10 days. The only real pivot point I can see is when conservatives started talking endlessly about Obama eating dog meat, but I doubt that that's it. Every other poll except the somewhat untrustworthy Rasmussen has Romney solidly behind.
Edited on April 25, 2012 at 9:48pmJul '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
As long as the Romney camp has no illusions of a fair fight then he will have a good chance. Full speed ahead, damn the torpedoes.
Feb '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Romney has become a much better speaker than he was, and this helps significantly.
The best thing Obama has going for him is the fall in natural gas prices driven by fracking, which he had nothing to do with (and probably would have suppressed if he'd really been aware of what was going on)...absent this, there would by much higher electricity prices (as he promised) and his chances of reelection would be much lower.
Mar '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Everyone who is paying attention thinks Obama's a dud. Conservatives can't stand him. Liberals are disappointed by him. Independents are baffled by him. Engaged people of all stripes think Obama is in trouble.
Unfortunately, very few pay attention. That is why Obama will win.
Dec '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win
In their respective first terms, Reagan chose tax cuts and Clinton was Newtronized into tax cuts, reducing drag on a sluggish economy. As a result, they saw growth during their respective re-election years. Obama made a fundamental mistake, very different from Reagan's and Clinton's choices. Obama let the Democrats in Congress apply their "guaranteed quick-fix" of massive Federal spending to the economy. As a result, the recovery has been slowed to a crawl such that unemployment hasn't taken on a sharp downward trajectory that would give voters confidence in re-electing Obama.
However, it remains possible that something will goose the economy over the summer and create the perception that Obama's policies are finally working. Possible, but highly unlikely: the UK has just announced that it is officially in a double-dip recession. Fracked natural gas may prevent a double-dip in the USA, but the current and looming regulatory and tax burden still instills fear in businesses, holding back hiring.
Mar '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
I would play it safe and wager my money on a coin toss.
Given the abysmal state of the economy, the fact that the majority of Americans seriously dislike this Administration's signature piece of legislation and a foreign policy that can at best be described as byzantine Obama should severely struggling with any serious challenger. He is not.
Romney is a weak candidate, policy wise and campaign wise. His signature strength is the ability to play it safe. Campaigning the way he does he will never win the Presidency but Obama might stumble out of it. We will see.
Edited on April 25, 2012 at 10:35pmDec '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
This is bizarre. It seems like Romney is swinging to the right now that there isn't a need to contrast himself with his primary opponents.
Apr '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Bill Clinton raised taxes, and the economy was already growing strongly before republicans took the Congress.
Conservatives, of course, predicted that the sky would fall when Clinton raised taxes, and ended up looking like fools by reelection time.
Mar '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Obama isn't invincible by any means, but he still has a significant advantage. It's still his race to lose, and ultimately, I think Romney goes down.
May '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win
I hope Gov. Ronmey presses the case of what a threat to liberty Obama is.
Feb '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
And so, after Romney wins, will gov't grow at a slower rate than it would have grown under Obama? I'll vote for Romney, but we can't lose sight of the goal: federal budgets that are in real dollars smaller than the prior year's. We're very far from that.
Mar '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Ah, at last an optimistic Ricochet post :-)
And then I read the comments :-(
Excuse me while I go off and listen to Rush - I need a dose of optimism.
Aug '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win
At this point in the race I think Romney has about a 60% chance of winning. Most people can see that Obama is much further left than Romney is right, which will make the Dem's scare tactics much less effective.
Re: Why Romney Will Win
David Williamson: Ah, at last an optimistic Ricochet post :-)
And then I read the comments :-(
Excuse me while I go off and listen to Rush - I need a dose of optimism. · 25 minutes ago
David, if Romney keeps hitting the conservative themes he laid out in last night's speech, I think he can go the distance.
If the election turns on Trayvon, free contraceptives and subsidized student loans, Obama wins. If Romney can keep the spotlight on fuel prices, our sluggish economy, feckless foreign policy and scandal-plagued federal government--Obama's actual record--the Governor will be hearing Hail to the Chief played for him next year.
Mitt is hard to demonize as some sort of far right extremist, isn't following the McCain lie-down-and-play-dead playbook, and is sounding more rather than less conservative. I'm feeling pretty good about his chances.
May '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win
David Williamson: Ah, at last an optimistic Ricochet post :-)
And then I read the comments :-(
Excuse me while I go off and listen to Rush - I need a dose of optimism. · 21 minutes ago
Ha, well, I sympathize. I've largely just tuned out at this point. This entire election cycle has proven extremely dispiriting for me. I can't help but read these 'prediction' posts and feel that I'm predicting between whether I'm going to end up disappointed or extremely disappointed. Election day can't come soon enough for me. I'm ready to just take the lumps of whomever we end up with and move on from there.
Feb '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win
More evidence: Obama was in Chapel Hill, NC yesterday trying to sell cheap student loans to students. Hard sell. Here's a quote from the article in the News & Observer.
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CHAPEL HILL -- As they waited for President Barack Obama to speak, Bridget Walsh and Lila Fleishman struggled to find the right word to describe the difference in his first campaign and now four years later.
The UNC-Chapel Hill freshmen were too young to vote in 2008, but they were big Obama supporters, magnetized they say by his star quality.
“Since 2008, I think you can really say it’s ...” Walsh started, pausing to think.
“Fizzled,” Fleishman inserted.
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Full article.
Re: Why Romney Will Win
Hang On: More evidence: Obama was in Chapel Hill, NC yesterday trying to sell cheap student loans to students. Hard sell. Here's a quote from the article in the News & Observer.
---------------------------------------------
CHAPEL HILL -- As they waited for President Barack Obama to speak, Bridget Walsh and Lila Fleishman struggled to find the right word to describe the difference in his first campaign and now four years later.
The UNC-Chapel Hill freshmen were too young to vote in 2008, but they were big Obama supporters, magnetized they say by his star quality.
“Since 2008, I think you can really say it’s ...” Walsh started, pausing to think.
“Fizzled,” Fleishman inserted.
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Full article. · 1 hour ago
Not a surprise, with one out of two college graduates unable to find a job in Obama's economy. Cheap student loans are only a deal if you can find work to pay them off, which requires the free market economy that Obama is dismantling.