I find it curious that so many conservatives are still on the edge of their seats regarding the presidential election. Maybe it's because conservatives tend to be more pessimistic, more emotionally restrained, and more cautious in their outlook than liberals. I'm here to tell you that this time your natural pessimism is misplaced. We're going to win this one big.
If you want to allow some optimism into your life, the first thing you have to do is stop following the polls. Most polls are conducted by media organizations. As such, they should be regarded as a propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. Their purpose is to influence your opinion rather than inform you with facts. If you scrutinize the methodology, you will find some absurd assumptions. Democrats are simply not going to pour out in numbers this year that are 5% to 7% higher than the Republican base. We have voter enthusiasm on our side this year -- by a wide margin.
Republican candidates also have momentum behind them. I'll submit that the tide turned with the sudden arrival of the Tea Party in the spring of 2009. Then we got the results of the 2010 midterm, which only confirmed the numbers behind the Tea Party. Ask yourself if conservatives are any less motivated today than they were in 2010. Ask yourself if anything essential has changed that would stop the momentum. Ask yourself if anything has improved, either domestically or in foreign policy, that could benefit the president. The answer is no. Mr. Obama was elected last time on the basis of a carefully contrived media persona. Now America knows him, and the glamour has evaporated like the fog it always was.
The last thing you need to consider is how the blue areas of the country are drifting away from the president. You don't need to look at the numbers, only the trends. When Connecticut is within seven percentage points and Pennsylvania is rated a toss-up, you know the Democrats are backed up against their own goal line (with two minutes to play, no less). It's slipping away from the incumbent, folks, and the fans are heading for the exits. Certainly Mr. Romney knows this, which is why he decided to sit on the ball after the first debate.
My prediction is that Mr. Romney will win with 320 electoral votes and 53% of the national vote. That's my conservative estimate. It could be a lot worse for Mr. Obama and probably will be. So buck it up, people. This one is nearly in the bag.