Why Romney Will Win Big
I find it curious that so many conservatives are still on the edge of their seats regarding the presidential election. Maybe it's because conservatives tend to be more pessimistic, more emotionally restrained, and more cautious in their outlook than liberals. I'm here to tell you that this time your natural pessimism is misplaced. We're going to win this one big.
If you want to allow some optimism into your life, the first thing you have to do is stop following the polls. Most polls are conducted by media organizations. As such, they should be regarded as a propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. Their purpose is to influence your opinion rather than inform you with facts. If you scrutinize the methodology, you will find some absurd assumptions. Democrats are simply not going to pour out in numbers this year that are 5% to 7% higher than the Republican base. We have voter enthusiasm on our side this year -- by a wide margin.
Republican candidates also have momentum behind them. I'll submit that the tide turned with the sudden arrival of the Tea Party in the spring of 2009. Then we got the results of the 2010 midterm, which only confirmed the numbers behind the Tea Party. Ask yourself if conservatives are any less motivated today than they were in 2010. Ask yourself if anything essential has changed that would stop the momentum. Ask yourself if anything has improved, either domestically or in foreign policy, that could benefit the president. The answer is no. Mr. Obama was elected last time on the basis of a carefully contrived media persona. Now America knows him, and the glamour has evaporated like the fog it always was.
The last thing you need to consider is how the blue areas of the country are drifting away from the president. You don't need to look at the numbers, only the trends. When Connecticut is within seven percentage points and Pennsylvania is rated a toss-up, you know the Democrats are backed up against their own goal line (with two minutes to play, no less). It's slipping away from the incumbent, folks, and the fans are heading for the exits. Certainly Mr. Romney knows this, which is why he decided to sit on the ball after the first debate.
My prediction is that Mr. Romney will win with 320 electoral votes and 53% of the national vote. That's my conservative estimate. It could be a lot worse for Mr. Obama and probably will be. So buck it up, people. This one is nearly in the bag.
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
You mean even when gas plummets to $2.00/gallon and Oct unemployment miraculously comes in at 5% next week? (ok, end sarcasm). I am completely on board with you here. I find it totally absurd that every safe blue state is honestly polling at O with 10-15 point declines from '08. Yet every swing state is very similar to '08 or worse for Romney. THis just doesn't pass the smell test to me.
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
"You don't need to look at the numbers, only the trends."
That, Paules, strikes me as the critical insight--and every pollster and political scientist I know would agree with it.
The ground game still worries me, but the trends are a-trending our way.
Oct '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
I find absurd the notion that an electorate that went historically GOP just 2 years ago, in huge part in response to Obambi and the Dems (who haven't changed one iota since then), would pivot back to them now. Doesn't pass the sniff test, at least not to me.
May '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
Wait, what? Ricochet's own "America is going down no matter what" pessimist confidently claiming Romney will win big?
May '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
Personally, I've been serenely confident since early September that Romney will win and that it won't be close. But yesterday and today I've had knots in my stomach and deep worries about the boundless corruption and brazen criminality of the leftish establishment and its media minions.
So this post is consoling.
Oct '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
So let it be (well) written, so let it be done.
And well reasoned. I'm lined up right behind Paul Rahe (deserving of first mention), you, and Peter R.
I think I even see Rob Long in the back of the line there.
Jun '12
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
We are also not going to see 85%+ voter turnout, as some polls seem to think we are.
Apr '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
Yeah, that's why Bob Dole smashed Clinton in 1996. Oh, wait....
Jun '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
These are two separate questions, dear.
Apr '12
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
I love the optimism here. But, unless something big happens (or unless the polling in blue states is beyond-the-pale skewed), 337 is the maximum number of electoral votes Romney could get (by taking every state currently "in play"). 320 as a conservative estimate doesn't seem to hold water. And even some of these "in-play" states (Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular) are an uphill climb for any Republican.
Don't get me wrong -- Romney will win. But he'll win with between 285 and 301 electoral votes.
Jun '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
Ohio Steve
I love the optimism here. But, unless something big happens (or unless the polling in blue states is beyond-the-pale skewed), 337 is themaximumnumber of electoral votes Romney could get (by taking every state currently "in play"). 320 as aconservativeestimate doesn't seem to hold water. And even some of these "in-play" states (Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular) are an uphill climb for any Republican.
Don't get me wrong -- Romney will win. But he'll win with between 285 and 301 electoral votes. · in 0 minutes
Yea of litttle faith.
Oct '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
wmartin
Yeah, that's why Bob Dole smashed Clinton in 1996. Oh, wait.... · 10 minutes ago
I'll grant your point...if you'll argue that Dole and Romney are candidates of equal skill, ability, and appeal and that they ran comparable presidential campaigns, and that Clinton and Obama are candidates of equal political skill and savvy and that they ran comparable presidential campaigns, and that the makeup of today's Democrat Party is substantially the same as 1996's, and that there's no substantive difference between our economy today and 1996's economy, and that world affairs today are the same as they were in 1996.
Deal?
Edited on October 25, 2012 at 6:25pmMay '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
~Paules
These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago
Ah. To me, they don't seem so. That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result. Maybe sooner, maybe later. If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted. We'll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union.
Jun '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
katievs
~Paules
These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago
Ah. To me, they don't seem so. That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result. Maybe sooner, maybe later. If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted. We'll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union. · 9 minutes ago
Democrats have already been threatening via twitter that they will riot in the event of an Obama defeat. I regard this possibility as a near certainty. Big city mayors should prepare for such contingencies.
Turning around the ship of state will take generations. I won't be alive long enough to see the outcome, but I'm willing to lend myself to start the process.
Sep '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
katievs
~Paules
These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago
Ah. To me, they don't seem so. That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result. Maybe sooner, maybe later. If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted. We'll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union. · 37 minutes ago
That sums up my level of optimism as well, "might not be impossible to save the union." I pray for America, because we are past the point where one election will save us.
Edited on October 26, 2012 at 6:08pmMay '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
katievs
~Paules
These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago
Ah. To me, they don't seem so. That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result. Maybe sooner, maybe later. If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted. We'll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union. · 6 hours ago
I am willing to engage in this debate after the election. Especially if Romney wins, I will be happy to discuss how this country is still headed for an iceberg (as in, we hit it decades ago). If he loses, I will be too depressed and will want some optimism.
Jul '11
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
I wish I shared your optimism. My best guess is 310 electoral votes. :)
wmartin
Yeah, that's why Bob Dole smashed Clinton in 1996. Oh, wait.... · 7 hours ago
Oh wait indeed, Clinton went to the middle and passed bi-partisan laws, embracing the change( reluctantly but effectively), ushering in prosperity.
Obama has been a been a bitter clinger and continued to embrace a radical agenda. While our country fails.
Bob Dole, zzzzzzzz. Romney, economic wizard at a time of great strife.
Dec '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
Yeah, Paules! You're my kind of crazy, sir.
Personally, I'm already stocking up on the bottles that I will use to capture the tears of all the leftist d-bags who were entirely blindsided by the Romney victory.
Oh yes, so delicious they will be . . .
Edited on October 26, 2012 at 1:32amOct '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
Oh wait indeed, Clinton went to the middle and passed bi-partisan laws, embracing the change( reluctantly but effectively), ushering in prosperity.
Obama has been a been a bitter clinger and continued to embrace a radical agenda. While our country fails.
Bob Dole, zzzzzzzz. Romney, economic wizard at a time of great strife.
Wmartin, I'll echo the Doc here. Do you imagine that Obama has a fraction of the goodwill that Clinton had built up with his cynical yet very effective triangulation? Obama's appeal has faded quickly and his policy failures are an anchor thrown to a flailing swimmer. I'm with Rahe and Paules, a sweep.
May '10
Re: Why Romney Will Win Big
~Paules:
Republican candidates also have momentum behind them. I'll submit that the tide turned with the sudden arrival of the Tea Party in the spring of 2009. Then we got the results of the 2010 midterm, which only confirmed the numbers behind the Tea Party. Ask yourself if conservatives are any less motivated today than they were in 2010. Ask yourself if anything essential has changed that would stop the momentum.
What about the way Republican leadership threw voters under the bus by raising the debt ceiling? How have senior Republicans supported Tea Party candidates?
The momentum might still be there. But it might have waned. Vehement disapproval of Obama's Presidency is only one consideration. Another is how many conservative voters trust Republicans no more than Democrats, and are not willing to give Republicans one more chance.
Swing voters understand the Tea Party movement even less than they understand Democrat and Republican policies.
And, as I have said many times before on Ricochet, Romney must win by multiple percentage points to counteract voter fraud. I've been told an army of lawyers is on standby.
I don't have a clue who is going to win.