Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Recently several Ricochet members have mentioned they believe Obama will be re-elected in 2012. I suppose this is based on the apparent weakness of the GOP field and the power of the incumbency. This is certainly a valid starting place, but I can't help believe that Obama is in very weak position going forward.
Obviously Obama can't run the same campaign in 2012 as he did in 2008. In that campaign, Obama won certain segments which he will have a very difficult time energizing this cycle. These segments include the independents who believed he was a post-partisan and post-racial centrist, the idealistic youth vote, those who thought it a great idea to have a black president, and any centrist who believed Obama understood economics better than McCain. This constitutes several million people. Obama and Democrats are weaker now in several key states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Obama has to run on what he has done as President. Obama has oration skills, but at this point only his hard-core followers will be motivated by his words. Obama has clearly and unequivocally stated many things, and made promises that he hasn't even attempted to keep. In short, the man has little or no credibility left.
In 2008, Obama had the fortune of running against an elderly Senator with little experience in economics, an unwillingness to engage in hand-to-hand political combat, and a non-existant unclear ideology. The McCain campaign was generally incompetent and they made two colossal blunders - picking Sarah Palin as VP, and McCain admitting to not knowing much about economics and suspending his campaign to go back to DC at a crucial time.
It is two years to the 2012 election. Obama has dug himself a giant hole in his own credibility and has so far failed to do anything that actually advances the USA economically or in foreign policy. We are not richer, safer, or more respected. We are, in all those areas, worse off. Obama has shown no signs he can or will achieve any improvement in these areas. Things are likely to get worse, or at best, stay the same, which is quite a negative outcome.
Short of nominating another dud like McCain, I think 2012 will be a real contest that the Republican candidate will have an excellent chance of winning.
So I ask anyone; What makes you believe Obama will win re-election? How will his 2012 campaign play out? Or, do you agree that he is vulnerable?
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Mar '11
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
I think he's vulnerable, but it's very dependent on who the GOP nominates - and right now, I don't know if I see anyone who can go up against the media machine (that will still be in his corner, even though there are some cracks in the wall) and the Obama machine.
Mar '11
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
You can't beat someone with no one. Incumbency is a major advantage and the mainstream media continues to protect Obama.
It will take a candidate with great ideas and great personal charisma, to explain the ideas, to overcome all of Obama's advantages.
I just don't see who this is right now.
It might be harder for Obama this time but then again against the wrong Republican he could also cruise to victory.
Sep '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Jager: You can't beat someone with no one. Incumbency is a major advantage and the mainstream media continues to protect Obama.
It will take a candidate with great ideas and great personal charisma, to explain the ideas, to overcome all of Obama's advantages.
It might be harder for Obama this time but then again against the wrong Republican he could also cruise to victory. ·
All true except, there will be someone. I'm pretty sure the 2012 ticket will be better than McCain/Palin. Obama is no longer an unknown messiah but a real flesh and blood man with considerable flaws.
Obama had the media in 2008 and will have them in 2012. But I can't see what his "advantages" are. I see many of his 2008 advantages gone, replaced by perhaps one - that he is now President and nothing really horrible has happened - although a case could be made that it has. Obama is not seen as any economic genius anymore, or a diplomatic genius or even as a great administrator.
I don't want to be overconfident, but I don't understand what looks like defeatism on our side.
Oct '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
As A.C. and Jager have pointed out, the GOP candidate is the key. Obama has lost the bright sheen of celebrity that swept him into office, but if the MSM can whip the 2008-first-time-voters up sufficiently, they might easily overcome a lackadaisical right holding its nose for a Romney. Those 2008-first-timers are registered and know their way to the polling station(s!) now, so I do worry.
Those liberals gob-smacked by Bush's re-election are going to want revenge I think. They really suffered that result, wanting to validate the Bush-stole-2000 meme by Kerry crushing him. I know I contributed to their pain with some un-gentlemanly glee, but after hearing the early polling results and the pundits calling it for Kerry, the reversal was just too much. I'm going to sit back now and let that memory wash over me in delicious waves...
Jan '11
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Franco: Obama has dug himself a giant hole in his own credibility and has so far failed to do anything that actually advances the USA economically or in foreign policy. We are not richer, safer, or more respected. We are, in all those areas, worse off. Obama has shown no signs he can or will achieve any improvement in these areas. Things are likely to get worse, or at best, stay the same, which is quite a negative outcome.
This is what I keep telling myself: Obama has implemented so many really bad ideas that even the media can't spin them.
But I am surrounded by people of the "I Don't Care; Obama Is Awesome" persuasion. It is depressing and, frankly, frightening to see how seamlessly they can maintain that attitude. If they still think that way now, will anything change their minds?
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Severely Ltd.:
Those liberals gob-smacked by Bush's re-election are going to want revenge I think.
I have been thinking this same thing lately. In 2004 I naively thought that Bush being re-elected would shut them up with their whole "Bush is illegitimate" line. His re-election only made them more enraged. So now the shoe is on the other foot, and the Left and their friends in the media will be 'darned' if they'll sit by and let Obama join the relatively exclusive club of ignominious one-term presidents.
We will have to have a stellar, charismatic candidate to fight this. That is why I am worried.
Sep '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Margaret Ball
Franco:
This is what I keep telling myself: Obama has implemented so many really bad ideas that even the media can't spin them.
But I am surrounded by people of the "I Don't Care; Obama Is Awesome" persuasion. It is depressing and, frankly, frightening to see how seamlessly they can maintain that attitude. If they still think that way now, will anything change their minds? · Mar 28 at 11:07am
I recognize there are the many true believers who won't budge, but there remain those who genuinely thought Obama was a centrist and those really fired-up for hope and change. I'm saying these folks are off the table and either will stay home or vote the other way. There will be millions of second-time Obama voters, but every first-time Obama voter will not be there in 2012, and will there be enough new young hopeyfuls to make up the difference?
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
And not one person above mentioned the racial element in the 2008 election nor the upcoming 2012 election. What is going on here? He is an affirmative action candidate. If Obama's polls look bad going into the election the race card will be used and it will escalate to violence in some places.
In 2008, candidate Obama's first speech to the country was on the subject of race and it was on race because he was in trouble with Jeremiah Wright's anti-Americanism on display at Youtube and television. He didn't dare touch the anti-Americanism which was what bothered most people, because he could be shown to be guilty by association so easily. He deflected attention completely from that. It was all because Wright was black that the misunderstanding comes, Obama was saying. Obama is a racialist no matter how much he sugar coats his treacle.
He warned off everyone with that one simple brilliant tactic. And he said such nice things, too. Oh, it was thrilling.
It doesn't matter very much who the Republicans put up because this will get ugly if the Republicans try to get traction.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
I worry, Franco, about what's happening here in Ohio. Kasich is taking a terrible hit politically for going to the wall for Senate Bill 5, our version of Walker's roll-back of public sector unions.
He's in the right, of course, and he's been extremely brave. But at least in the short term his combativeness comes with a price. Right at this moment, Obama could take Ohio, I'm afraid, because the vote would be just as much a referendum on Kasich as on Obama. Hopefully that will change as this battle recedes into history.
The Republican candidate must win Ohio, but that is no sure thing. The independents here are uninformed--and don't frankly wish to be informed--which makes educating them difficult, and scaring them easy.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
I think the best chance of Obama not getting a second term is to have a primary challenger. And that will only happen if the Dems think he's weak. Other than that, as much as it pains me to say it, he's got a great chance of winning in 2012. The notions of "you don't change horses in midstream" or "he hasn't had a chance to show us what he's made of" will come up. Most independents tuned out after the election. It also depends on the state of the economy. If it hasn't recovered, people will be looking for alternatives.
Sep '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Reading these comments helps me expand and clarify my thoughts. I believe it is dangerous for those on our side to be so afraid and so cautious. It smacks of defeatism. What we need is to summon up our understanding that Obama is an incompetent liar and only an ignorant true-believer would vote for him again. Not true? I know what the media pretends. We must be the ones who laugh at the ridiculous assertions they make - right in their faces.
Imagine the lefties in 2008 saying that Americans are stupid and they are just going to re-elect another Republican. Did we hear that?
I'm not talking about deluding ourselves, but we must continue to challenge our countrymen. "Are you seriously going to vote for this incompetent, serial liar Obama?" We need to say with disbelief. We need to expect that Americans can't be that stupid and hypnotized by the media.
We need to challenge them to explain themselves as to why Obama deserves a second term. On what basis? Anyone, most Republicans and even some Democrats - would make a better President than Obama. That is what the starting point of the conversations should be.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
It depends on who's writing Obama's teleprompter scripts, and who's prepping him for debates. That's the person, or persons, the Republican nominee will be running against. He reads it like he just thought of it. That's his great skill.
Feb '11
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Obama got 53% of the vote in a year when the deck could hardly be stacked any better in his favor. An economy in the midst of a disaster, a nation suffering from Bush fatigue which became Republican fatigue, a mediocre (to be kind) Republican ticket, and all the idealistic tendencies of the electorate that Franco mentioned. Plus, in 2012 Obama will actually have a record he has to run on! IF Obama wins, it will be by a razor thin margin at best, whereas I see the Republican candidate easily capable of winning a Bush over Kerry size victory.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Jager: You can't beat someone with no one. Incumbency is a major advantage and the mainstream media continues to protect Obama.
It will take a candidate with great ideas and great personal charisma, to explain the ideas, to overcome all of Obama's advantages.
I just don't see who this is right now.
It might be harder for Obama this time but then again against the wrong Republican he could also cruise to victory. · Mar 28 at 7:52am
The two Republicans that come to mind with the greatest personal charisma are Christie and Rubio...who aren't running!
If the final GOP candidate can't put Obama on the defensive we lose. Simple as that.
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Obama is extremely vulnerable, and things for him will not get better. His best hope lies with the Republicans who have a knack for running someone who is at best undead. If they nominate Romney, today's front-runner, God help us. He is Mr. Romneycare, and he will not be able to make a case that his monstrosity is better than Obama's. We have to hope that someone else emerges. I have misgivings about them all. The worst would be Gingrich, given his infidelities and his aptitude for leaping on causes like the global-warming scam. We need to take a very close look at all of the contenders.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
I agree, Franco, that the odds are against Obama getting reelected.
There are circumstances under which he could still win, such as a Republican primary series that leaves the weakest candidate standing in the end. That we have so many potential candidates is bad in that it creates the conditions for a repeat of 2008 — good candidates sapping votes from each other, thereby empowering the least conservative candidate.
But our abundance of potential candidates also means that the Left's media and politicians cannot focus their attacks yet. I hope at least some GOP candidates wait until next year to throw their hats into the ring.
Obama is the worst sort of liar. He tells lies so boldly that people have trouble believing that he doesn't believe what he's saying. Obama won't debate his failures. He will recount a fantasy version of what happened, ceding not even the most basic facts to Republicans in public debate. Some voters will be fooled again, though not as many as before.
If Hillary runs against him, then all bets are off. She could be a strong candidate against Republicans.
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Scott Reusser: I worry, Franco, about what's happening here in Ohio. Kasich is taking a terrible hit politically for going to the wall for Senate Bill 5, our version of Walker's roll-back of public sector unions.
He's in the right, of course, and he's been extremely brave. But at least in the short term his combativeness comes with a price. Right at this moment, Obama could take Ohio, I'm afraid, because the vote would be just as much a referendum on Kasich as on Obama. Hopefully that will change as this battle recedes into history.
The Republican candidate must win Ohio, but that is no sure thing. The independents here are uninformed--and don't frankly wish to be informed--which makes educating them difficult, and scaring them easy. · Mar 28 at 3:23pm
Kasich will look much better a year from now, and the folks who find that they no longer have union dues subtracted from their government salaries will gradually find that this is to their liking.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Conspiracy theory du jour, I could envision a strange scenario (believe me the fact Obama was elected with Rev.Wright,paper thin resume,shady secretive past etc.. is bizarre enough)
It's clear Obama doesn't like the" job" part of the presidency and seems to avoid it all costs, from his never ending series of golf and vacation sprees to dithering on most major decisions especially in foreign policy.
Hillary who was almost non existent in the first two years of this administration is appearing more and more in place of Obama lately. Could it be some grooming process to lend her gravitas perhaps for a future run? One that would let Obama off the presidency hook, free to party,golf and celebrity hobknob which are his true passions?
Dec '10
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
We sure do not want a mediocre candidate but, guys, remember what just happened in November. We are ascendant!
Do not expect any help from the media. Even Pres. Reagan did not have that. The American people are ready for honesty and our desperate domestic and foreign affairs status will only amplify an honest candidate despite a media in the tank for Obama.
Feb '11
Re: Why Obama is Vulnerable in 2012
Re Kasich- I remember John Engler in Michigan suffered from terrible press and terrible job approval ratings- then recovered to win three terms.
Anyway, I'd to concur that Romney would be a GOP disaster- and I voted for him in 2008. First- at some point during that campaign I heard a story that his financial group bought a factory in Ohio, closed it, shipped the machinery to China, and started shipping its products here. That won't go over too well in 2012, and I can't get over it either. Yes, I'm sure Romney made a lot of money off that, and is really smart and successful, etc. Second- I read that Romney was making the rounds on Capital Hill in 2009 trying to get the GOP to cut a deal with Obama on immigration- so he wouldn't have to talk about it when he ran for president in 2012. That was it. Done. He will not get my vote. Third- Gosh, I forgot to mention Romneycare! ; Wow, that's the third most objectionable thing about him as far as I'm concerned.
Just my evaluation of course but I'm no longer a fan.
Edited on Mar 29, 2011 at 4:22pm