Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Why has the Obama administration taken the divisive step of filing suit against Arizona right now? Just days after the President gave a big speech on immigration, calling for conciliation and consensus? Because, the administration wants divisiveness. The President, David Axelrod, the Democratic leadership in Congress--all are positively desperate to start a raucous, if useless, fight over immigration in order to change the subject.
From what? Well might you ask.
From what will happen six months from now when the Bush tax cuts expire and ObamaCare goes into effect--namely, the biggest tax hike in American history. At the stroke of midnight on January 1, 2011, personal income tax rates will rise, the marriage penalty and death tax will return, and the capital gains and dividend taxes will rise--and the twenty or so new taxes in ObamaCare will instantly kick in. Ryan Ellis of Americans for Tax Reform offers a useful, and sobering, summary. An excerpt:
In 2001 and 2003, the GOP Congress enacted several tax cuts for investors, small business owners, and families. These will all expire on January 1, 2011....The top income tax rate will rise from 35 to 39.6 percent (this is also the rate at which two-thirds of small business profits are taxed). The lowest rate will rise from 10 to 15 percent. All the rates in between will also rise.
Most Americans seem, so far, blithely unaware of all this--and, in their usual blundering, oblivious way, most Republican candidates have yet to begin so much as mentioning the coming tax hikes. But Americans for Tax Reform, the Tea Party, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity--they've all begun raising the alarm already. Soon enough, the Obama administration knows, the tax hikes will become an issue in the coming election--even Republican candidates, and possibly even GOP chairman Michael Steele, in other words, will recognize, that voters don't want the government reaching even deeper into their pockets. Unless, that is, the administration can first sucker Republicans into engaging in a big, loud, nasty fight over immigration right now.
We shall see.
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Jun '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Manufactured distraction is part of the motivation; another reason to file suit is to save face after "acting stupidly" by speaking out in protest on a law unread.
I don't know that Americans are unaware - myself, I've been making plans and adjustments on my household budget since the day the Democrats took control of the full Congress and Executive Branch.
Those that remain unaware may very well be waiting for wealth to get redistributed to them.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Business owners are intensely focused on the tax hikes Peter, and we will likely see a spate of transactions in the back half of the year, price considerations (discouraged by the weak stock market) notwithstanding. Whether we also see a spike in mortality rate prior to 12/31 is less clear...
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Okay, okay, Jim and Trace, Ricochetians know all about the coming tax hikes already. But don't you guys have the feeling that it just hasn't sunk in yet? In a general way? As part of the national conversation? That a tsunami about a hundred feet high has already been spotted gathering strength and speed, but that most of the press and public is still happily occupying itself building sand castles on the beach?
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Distraction is a core element of the Obama presidency. It's why he chose Biden as his VP.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
I agree Peter, it is perplexing. But I am perplexed by so much of what the Republican establishment does and fails to do. In a perfect world the face of the tax hikes would be that of family-run and other small businesses, but I fear it will be cast in the media only in terms of reversing the deficit-creating Bush tax increases and harming only Wall Street plutocrats.
The PR abilities of the administration are breathtaking and a bit overwhelming.
For the party that spawned the evil genius of Lee Atwater, Roger Ailes, and Karl Rove -- there seems to be a real absence of political talent out there. The only ads I've seen touted on Ricochet appeal only to the base. The only exception I've seen -- other than the brilliant Jan Brewer ad which I wish some rich plutocrat would pay to run during the Today Show -- is coming from the Whitman campaign (red candidate/blue state.)
I'd love to have Mike Murphy reassure us all about the state of the RNC communications effort.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Peter, I would submit that our ability to measure the mood or scope of the "national conversation" is limited. If we go by polls (double-edged though it may be), clearly the drop-off of support for the administration is indicative - not to mention the continuance of the "wrong track" measure in terms of the country's direction. There is simply so much to be disgusted with right now, that it simply may be that an overwhelming number of folks have "TILT TILT TILT" flashing on their foreheads. Few truly have a sense of just how fragile society is - and always has been.
Yet I submit that folks are paying attention - despite the lack of reflection in the press. The tea party movement, the rightward swing of independents (polls, again) - I do think that it is possible a "silent majority" recognizes the existential battle here. Perhaps not so silent anymore. But that discontent is going to be ignored by those in power for as long as possible. In November, we may know for sure whether the American people are awake enough to realize the danger, and force a major, but painful, course correction.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Sorry for the extra post - got caught by the 200 word limit ... but as far as the Republican party candidates coalescing behind a solid platform and message, I agree with Trace that there seems to be a dearth of strategic leadership emanating from that party. I think the blowback against the Democrats following the healthcare audacity caught the Republicans unprepared. They'll ride the wave, but could easily be in over their heads. There are leaders, perhaps Daniels, Barbour and others, but right now they seem to be taking a cautious tack.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Rove is still there, but we have to remember that Rove's talent, and interest, was getting voters motivated enough to put an "X" in a certain box on the ballot. Every candidate has to figure out what their #1 goal is. Are they on a holy crusade to preserve liberty in all things for all time in all places, or are they trying to get elected to a certain office, on a conservative theme. If it's the later, call Karl. He can help. He doesn't do crusades.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
I agree that no one is paying attention- and that is by Rahm/Axelrod design. I expect a tsunami of profit-taking stock sales in order to capitalize on pre-cap-gains-tax-increases, and that should drive the market way down at the end of the year.
In general, it is obvious that the Republicans simply do not have any George Soros-types out there- that is, willing to spend some of their riches in order to impact the body politic long term and strategically. Our side (after Scaife's 1990's adventures with American Spectator) always applies investment-level cost-benefit analysis to such things, and invests in new businesses or toys instead.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
When there is a mass sell-off at the end of the year, in preparation for the tax hikes, you can bet that Team Obama will have a way to spin it. Any guesses on what that spin will be? Republicans need to anticipate that campaign. If possible, they should undercut it before the Dems can even put it forward.
Republicans spend far too much time playing defense. In politics, it's a position of weakness.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
My first thought at hearing it was "the biggest tax hike in American history," was: "what, again?" Kind of like how we've had history's biggest illegal drug seizures from time to time.
May '10
Re: Why Obama is Changing the Subject to Immigration, Or, Six Months Until the Tax Tsunami
Things won't change until voters start paying attention. They will start paying attention when they begin to see the cost of NOT paying attention is too...uh...costly. :)