Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Much has been written about the political courage of President Obama and about the risk he incurred when he ordered the Dick Cheney’s “assassination squad” to take out Osama bin Laden. That there were risks involved goes without saying.
We had good reason to suppose that, if we told the Pakistanis, someone in their intelligence apparatus would tip off Al Q’aeda, and so we found ourselves conducting a military operation within yards of the Pakistani West Point without the permission of the Pakistani government. Had the Pakistani military caught on, the whole things might have ended in tears.
To this one can add the fact that we were by no means certain that the mysterious individual holed up on the third floor of the compound in Abbottabad was bin Laden. Had it turned out to be a lesser mortal – especially if the gentleman living so secluded a life in that compound had turned out not to have been a leading figure in Al Q’aeda – Barack Obama would have had egg on his face.
But none of this means that we should be persuaded that our President is not, in fact, dangerously risk-averse. For one must consider the political consequences for his candidacy for re-election had he allowed bin Laden to get away – as he surely did himself.
What happened at Tora Bora was regrettable but excusable. We did not have that many men in place. The terrain was forbidding and offered any number of places in which to hide, and the forces loyal to Al Q’aeda knew the territory in a way that we did not.
Abbottabad was different. We had a pretty good idea that bin Laden was there. We had been watching the place for eight months or more, and President Obama was taking considerable heat for having been feckless in Libya and elsewhere. Given the circumstances, dithering and blundering would have been fatal to his political prospects, and he knew it. He may not be at all savvy in his conduct of foreign policy, but his political instincts are well honed.
Even then, however, President Obama dithered – as he had done with regard to the proposed “surge” in Afghanistan, as he had done when the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi took place in Libya. Months and months passed – and, at a certain point, well before we launched the assault, we had learned as much as could be learned given the obvious caution exercised by the mysterious gentleman holed up on the third floor of the compound.
If Barack Obama finally, reluctantly decided to pull the trigger, it was, as someone who calls himself Southernpundit noted in a comment on Kausfiles, almost surely because of Wikileaks. About a week before the decision, Wikileaks revealed that we had learned the nom de guerre of the courier who owned the house in Abbottabad. We can be confident that the CIA took notice and that President Obama was informed. It was only a matter of time before Al Q’aeda woke up to the danger and saw to bin Laden’s withdrawal.
We in the United States owe a lot to the fact that we possess institutions – free and frequent elections, above all else – by which we can hold politicians responsible for their blunders. If they tend to conduct themselves in a responsible manner, it is because the prospect of defeat and humiliation concentrates their minds wonderfully.
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Sep '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
When former Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin was busy imploding during an election campaign, he was tagged with the nickname "Mr. Dithers" because it was then obvious that he'd spent the majority of his career scheming to get to the top with no idea what to do when he got there.
The term "Ditherer-In-Chief" has a nice ring to it down south.
Nov '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Paul, that is a really great point. We tend to look at decision made because of elections with a negative view, but certainly, being held accountable to the electorate has it's benefits!
Jul '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
I read this this morning. It will, obviously, require further confirmation, but it does seem to fit the pattern of Obama's political career and indecisiveness far more than the one currently being touted following the events of May 1st.
http://socyberty.com/issues/white-house-insider-obama-hesitated-panetta-issued-order-to-kill-osama-bin-laden/
If there is any validity in it, making it more generally available may stimulate further confirmation.
Mar '11
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
If I were one of those people who entertained conspiracy theories, I could probably be persuaded that Osama's location and the raid to remove him was being held as an ace-in-the-hole to be played when most convenient to the Administration. If Wikileaks were to have revealed that we had the name of the courier, that could end up causing Osama to relocate - in which case one would have to play the card immediately. Indeed, failing to do so, if that ever leaked, would be a major disaster.
Guess it's a good thing I'm not one of those people...oh, wait.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
If Obama moved only because his hand was forced, such information would be highly valuable in the hands of foreign statesmen and intelligence services. Anyone who has studied Sun Tzu knows the value in knowing your enemy, and Obama is an open book. The tendency to dither is an invitation to mischief. You can be sure that dictators in Iran, Syria, and Libya will make book on it given a chance. Fortunately, some people in our own State Department and CIA know how to pull Obama's strings. I suppose we can take small comfort in knowing the men and women behind the throne are watching out for our national security.
Mar '11
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
On second thought, dithering is easier to believe than the riverboat gambler nerves of steel that would be required otherwise. All of those votes of "present" speak to a certain mind-set.
May '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Lucky we discovered the Abbottabad compound during Obama's first term, when Obama still had reason to fear the political consequence of inaction.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Imagine being the guy behind Obama at the Dairy Queen.
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
They do, indeed.
Jul '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
The more I learn about the special aricraft, and the training involved in preparation of the operation, plus the early release of the Capture/or kill nature of the mission, the more convinced I am of my first impression.
I do believe the mission was going to be a stealth capture mission that changed to a Kill Mission when the Helecoptor went down. It would have been the perfect grab leaving the Pakistanies unable to complain that the person the were Not Protecting was suddenly Not where he Wasn't Staying.
I credit Paneta and the military with understanding the value of Bin Laden and what was in his head, and therefore with planning a capture mission for the purposes of gathering intelligence. But once the American Signature was left indellible in the compound with the downed chopper, and everyone in Al Qiada was going to know that the U.S. had been there, much of the value was diminished. Not to mention the deniability that we had him in our possession.
Just my take on things.
Feb '11
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
More relevant wikileaks:
http://www.guernicamag.com/blog/1991/pratap_chatterjee_the_secret_k/
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Important background:
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2003/12/15/031215fa_fact?currentPage=all
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Boykin designed the program that killed the extremist theologian, Bin Laden.
That's gotta hurt!
Not least because: While Boykin was designing, Democrats were whining -- about Boykin's extremist theology.
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RE "we can hold politicians responsible for their blunders"
May we then hold Congressional Democrats responsible for trying to shut down the program that killed Bin Laden?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/us/14intel.html?_r=1
Congressional Democrats learned of the program in June 2009 -- "Bush's secret death squad," as they were wont to call it.
Oh my! Look at that... Panetta fibbed to Congress.
Seems he didn't shut the program down.
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Administration refused to let ISI in on the operation to kill Bin Laden.
Administration also didn't say a word to Democrats in Congress.
Hmm...
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Dont forget: In Jan 2010 a Jordanian doctor detonated a suicide vest at FOB Chapman, killing a number of Navy Seals and members of the CIA. Same team recovered from their losses and killed Bin Laden.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LA12Df01.html
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
John Lamoreaux: More relevant wikileaks:
http://www.guernicamag.com/blog/1991/pratap_chatterjee_the_secret_k/
---
Important background:
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2003/12/15/031215fa_fact?currentPage=all
---
Boykin designed the program that killed the extremist theologian, Bin Laden.
That's gotta hurt!
Not least because: While Boykin was designing, Democrats were whining -- about Boykin's extremist theology.
---
RE "we can hold politicians responsible for their blunders"
May we then hold Congressional Democrats responsible for trying to shut down the program that killed Bin Laden?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/us/14intel.html?_r=1
Congressional Democrats learned of the program in June 2009 -- "Bush's secret death squad," as they were wont to call it.
Oh my! Look at that... Panetta fibbed to Congress.
Seems he didn't shut the program down.
---
Administration refused to let ISI in on the operation to kill Bin Laden.
---
Dont forget: In Jan 2010 a Jordanian doctor detonated a suicide vest at FOB Chapman, killing a number of Navy Seals and members of the CIA. Same team recovered from their losses and killed Bin Laden.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LA12Df01.html · May 7 at 9:39am
Fascinating.
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Percival: ...
All of those votes of "present" speak to a certain mind-set.
Yes, it's called "absence".
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Maybe Obama dithered, and maybe he didn't. (The Wikileaks connection is certainly suggestive, but by no means dispositive.)
What we do know is that someone had to keep pushing the CIA to sift the intel, and then someone had to oversee contingency planning, and then someone had to coordinate the entire effort, bringing in the SEALs and seeing to it that they trained for the mission intensively, and then someone had take the matter to the president, and, if the president did indeed dither, keep pressing him until he made a decision.
That someone was Leon Panetta. While Panetta was serving as Clinton's chief of staff, I developed a low opinion of him. I've reversed myself. For the life of me, I can't construe the events of last Sunday in any way--not one--in which Leon Panetta doesn't emerge looking quite a lot like a hero.
Edited on May 7, 2011 at 9:09pmMar '11
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Peter Robinson: Maybe Obama dithered, and maybe he didn't. (The Wikileaks connection is certainly suggestive, but by no means dispositive.)
What we do know is that someone had to keep pushing the CIA to sift the intel, and then someone had to oversee contingency planning, and then someone had to coordinate the entire effort, bringing in the SEALs and seeing to it that they trained for the mission intensively, and then someone had take the matter to the president, and, if the president did indeed dither, keep pressing him until he made a decision.
The kaleidoscopic nature of the narrative is starting to give me a headache, but one thing is certain: a lot of excellent intelligence work went into this whole thing.
I'm still wondering why there wasn't any interference on the ground. Our weapons were probably silenced, but that AK-47 wasn't. Flash-bangs are big on both flash and bang. Maybe Pakistani cops just aren't curious?
Jun '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
Peter: you are so right. This shows that responsibility is a way of making people grow up. The important thing is that not too much responsibility is thrust upon someone before his mind is sufficiently tempered to handle it. Mr. Panetta has become someone who has learned the right lessons, learned to handle the power and now he is a formidable opponent for our enemies. May he continue to prosper at the Defense Dept. -- and may he get the credit he definitely deserves.
Dec '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
All reporting I've seen indicates we learned of the compound around Aug-Sep of 2010. It was under every conceivable form of surveillance ever since.
While they were not absolutely certain Bin Laden was there everything indicated he was.
Obama could not bomb the place because of all of the following.
(cont...)
Dec '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
His options were do nothing or order a SEAL raid. The question is why he took so long to make a decision. The Wikileaks disclosure explains this.
While ordering the raid was bold it was not "gutsy", as his only other option was to continue doing nothing. After the Wikileaks disclosure doing nothing was also high risk -- the risk Bin Laden would get away and this fact would be leaked before the 2012 election.
Obama did not have much of a choice. The decision was a no-brainer that any President would make it.
Also, Bin Laden had to be killed. Obama could not capture him. No matter what he did with him it would be political suicide after his years of self-righteous lecturing. All of the following would be political suicide
The attempts to take a disproportionate share of the credit and the exaggerated efforts to portray Obama as some kind of Dirty Harry Callahan-style tough guy when he dithered and really had no other viable options have been disgusting.
Edited on May 8, 2011 at 12:27amMar '11
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
This all sounds about right - Panetta (and, most likely, Petraeus) doing the gutsy call, and Mr Obama taking all the credit for saying "make it so" (after a delay of months + 18 hours). Maybe Bob Woodward will write a book about it - "Mr Obama's gutsy call".
My, guess, also, is that it was a kill mission from the start, for the reasons described by Nickolas.
The Pentagon has just released a Bin Laden home video of him watching himself on TV, with a remote in his hand. Probably the Navy Seals mistook this for a phaser.
Edited on May 8, 2011 at 2:05amJul '10
Re: Why Obama Ordered the Attack on Osama
~Paules' comment made Me think that Obama's dithering, and his foreign policy in general, would hasten China's want of Taiwan.