Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
Just got to Washington. Wading through news and emails, I came across this fascinating article in the Jerusalem Post. Interviewed at the home of the U. S. Ambassador to Israel, the great Islamic scholar Bernard Lewis, now 94, expressed satisfaction at seeing dictatorial regimes such as those of Egypt and Tunisia overthrown--but expressed caution about holding elections any time soon.
"Lewis regards a dash toward Western-style elections," the article states..."as constituting 'a dangerous aggravation' of the problem, and fears that radical Islamic movements would be best placed to exploit so misguided a move." In Lewis's own words:
The Arab masses certainly want change. And they want improvement. But when you say do they want democracy, that’s a more difficult question to answer. What does “democracy” mean? It’s a word that’s used with very different meanings, even in different parts of the Western world. And it’s a political concept that has no history, no record whatever in the Arab, Islamic world.
Fascinating, as I say. But not exactly comforting, is it?
Hat tip to Ricochet member Meir Kohn.
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Jul '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
Peter, have you interviewed Bernard Lewis for UK?
Jul '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
"And it’s a political concept that has no history, no record whatever in the Arab, Islamic world."
Well, not exactly news to some of Us.
Jun '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
Iraq, because of its ethnic divisions, is probably the one modern Islamic nation that can make that transition, from dictatorship to democracy, without risking a stampede to theocracy. I think Iraq, if successful, will be a lucky one of a kind. That's if it is successful. That's still up in the air.
Nov '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
One part comfort...Two parts scared to death. Just hoping none of this has anything to do with the Mayan calendar.
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
We've had plans to do so fall through a couple of times. But no--alas, the answer is no.
Jul '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
Peter Robinson
We've had plans to do so fall through a couple of times. But no--alas, the answer is no. · Feb 26 at 7:08pm
He's not getting any younger, Buster.
Amazing guy; 94 years old and he had the ladies chasing him all over the cruise ship. Rob Long and Victor Davis Hanson were all like, "Hey, what are we? Chopped liver?"
Feb '11
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
Thanks for the link, Peter. As always, Lewis is a voice of sanity and insight.
The Arab masses, sadly, don't know any longer what they want.
A recent study showed that some 90% of Egyptian youth want shari'ah law. The same study showed that 80% don't want religion to be involved with politics.
The Arabic speaking Middle East has assumed its present form in part because of the vile men who control the curriculum, entertainment, and media.
If you've lived in and about the Middle East long enough you'll know what I mean. A month in Damascus reading the local newspapers, chatting with Syrian friends, and watching Syrian TV, and you'll begin to feel yourself losing your grip on reality.
Squares sometimes have five corners. The law of excluded middle is only partly true. The CIA controls the weather. Allah delights in the stench of burning entrails smeared on the street. Jews have tails and fangs.
You know what is happening, but you're helpless to stop it.
The only hope may be massive infusions of lithium into the aquafers. Then again, I'm an optimist and still think there's a little hope.
Oct '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
During my 10 years or so of intensive international travel, in Afghanistan, Pakistan and many non-Islamic countries, I became convinced that the encroachment of modern Western corruption, movies, satellite TV, the Internet, raised the alarm in the Muslim world. Thay have 30 to 50 years left, unless they can destroy the West.
Wherever I traveled, I used the Internet cafes. I made a practice of checking the web history of their computers. Vietnam, for example, had little interest in pornographic sites. Latin America, somewhat more. Russia, lots. Pakistan and Afghanistan, overwhelming action on porno and gay sites. Karachi opens night clubs, serves alcohol, and they get shut down. They reopen as soon as the heat dies down. I've spent less time in places like Uzbekistan and Dubai, but the same appears to be true there.
We are seeing an all or nothing moment in history. Think, Hitler in 1944. Or England in 1940. The absolute certainty that no unspent energy should be left, All or nothing.
The Muslim Brotherhood, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Taliban. They all know that it is now or never.
Peter... I am absolutely uncertain which way it will go, but I'm not optimistic.
Jul '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
Whatever the outcome may be in the region, I am willing to bet that we will not be pleased with the results, and only partly because we have an extremely narrow vision of what we, the United States, feel is an acceptable government both in form and character.
For example, heavy-handed checks and balances on the popular vote may seem anathema to us, but natural to a society where the state has taken a more patriarchal role for centuries. Likewise, while democracy requires inclusion by definition, we would be scandalized and in fact rightly fearful for our own security if Islamist elements were to take any part, however insignificant, in the political processes of these new democracies.
I don't think its a bad thing to have very specific desires for the form and character of the new governments being formed in this very important region, but I think we need to start thinking about how we are going to deal with a Middle East that is no longer being held together by dictators that either kowtow to US interests or simply keep the peace.
Dec '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
True. Also, we tend to overlook, gloss over, downplay, or make excuses for less than ideal examples of government in our own house.
Consider the extremely corrupt one-party Cook County/Chicago model of "democracy". I wonder if a Chicago style "democracy" in the region would be acceptable to the idealists and critics in the US.
I assume whatever new governments ultimately form in the ME and south central asia they will be unacceptable to many idealists and critics in the US. However, as with the dictatorships and authoritarian governments they replace, our primary realpolitik concern should be how they relate to the rest of the world. If they do not export terrorism or aggressively threaten their neighbors, and peacefully coexist and participate in international trade and commerce, we should be reasonably satisfied with the result. The realistic and practical concern is some, or all, will not be like this.
Dec '10
Re: Why Elections in the Middle East Would be a Good Thing--Not
Many of our Realpolitik’s favorite strongman-patriarchs presiding over the populations in the Middle East are reaching the end of their reign because even they do not rise above the inextinguishable human flaw of mortality.
While the Saudi regnant, at age 87, must be having vivid visions of the bevy of maidens awaiting, we have to keep in mind that stability in our own country is teetering from the vertiginous slope of ascent of the price of oil.
Petroleum delivered from, not the apparatus of democracy spreading in, the Middle East portends our own prosperity. All the policies of our historic first Islamic apostate president point to the suppression of American energy independence and our consequent submission to foreign powers slipping out of our control.