Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Mollie Hemingway, Ed. ·
Jul 15, 2011 at 6:32am
Yesterday, Rasmussen reported that Obama's re-elect numbers weren't looking good for him. And now we have a Gallup poll that shows things may be even worse:
Registered voters by a significant margin now say they are more likely to vote for the "Republican Party's candidate for president" than for President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, 47% to 39%. Preferences had been fairly evenly divided this year in this test of Obama's re-election prospects.
Here's what I don't get. Folks here at Ricochet, being the thoughtful and educated group we are, have been down on Obama for a while. But his numbers were actually pretty good until last month. What happened in the last month to make independents and others sour on him so dramatically?
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Oct '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Perhaps the "Americans will blame Republicans if debt limit isn't raised in time" polls are incorrect, or asking the wrong questions. Or it could be that Obama's refusal to deal seriously with the budget ("Corporate jets! Corporate jets! Corporate jets!") is a factor.
It would have been nice if Gallup had asked "what's the biggest reason for your preference?"
Jun '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Just an unscientific reaction. I believe another segment of the electorate has come to the realization that things are never going to get better economically under the One.
Dec '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
I'd quote Carville, but we don't have a shower at work. The smoke and mirrors are not working as well any more. As much as I like the trajectory of the poll numbers it still worries me when voters make a choice before a choice is even presented. I would prefer it if people overwhelmingly voted for the republican candidate (whoever that turns out to be), but I'll take them simply voting against the democratic one. The trend is subject to change, of course, when Obama has a fixed target on which to unleash his demon hordes.
May '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
It was that jobs report, I'd wager.
Plus the speeches and press appearances that have high-lighted his thin-skinned unleadership. The curtain has been pulled back. The mystique is gone forever.
May '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Yeah, I've been "down on him for a while."
I now knight thee Lady Understatement.
Oct '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Jobs, and the fact that people are realizing that he is not a very like-able person.
Aug '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
People are waking up to cold, hard reality; like the morning after a bad party where you drank way too much, made a fool of yourself, saw others embarrass themselves, and lost your girlfriend/spouse and wallet.
Feb '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
This reminded me of something Jim Geraghty posted a while ago on the NRO campaign spot blog. He occasionally interviews a GOP political guru he refers to as "Obi-wan".
In this particular interview Obi-wan predicted that Obama was doomed, but that his poll numbers would hold up reasonably well... until the bottom dropped out.
So with that in mind perhaps nothing has really changed recently. It's just that Obama has looked like a failure long enough for people to conclude that he is in fact just that.
Maybe that's why he's so testy of late. The re-elect numbers they burn.
May '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
He has been giving more press conferences and speeches lately. The more we see of him the less we like him.
Jun '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
When the wolves in his own party begin to openly denounce him, the End for The One will be near.
How implausible would it be for the Resurrection of Hillary Clinton to take place? Now that would be some interesting politics.
May '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
So, Obama loses to a generic Republican. That's good news for The Last Guy, I suppose: I can't think of a more generic Republican than Mitt Romney.
Dec '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Faith in Hope'nChange Keynesian Tax and Spend Liberalism overcome by the School of Hard Knocks. We need to be gentle with our fellow Americans who fell for the nonsense. Such epiphanies are painful.
Mar '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
This is obvious - Mr Murphy on Ricochet, predicting that Mr Obama will win, based on demography, and independents not voting for wacko conservatives.
Or, possibly, people are finally beginning to wake up to how damaging and incompetent he is (Mr Obama, not Mr Murphy).
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 7:45amDec '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
It is not a real party unless all of the above and more, i.e. incarceration, happen.
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 7:43amFeb '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Jobs, jobs, jobs. There aren't any. Even government jobs are drying up with state and local government employees being laid off. And there are credible economic prognosticators who are predicting another recession next year.
Obama doesn't have any problem raising tons of money in small amounts. So his advertising may begin soon to turn his numbers around. Anti-Obama ads have already been running in our local market.
Mar '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
I compare it to motorcyclists who try to break land speed records. Everything is going fine. They're picking up speed. Everything is under control. Then suddenly, the front wheel starts to just subtly vibrate left and right. The rider hangs on, thinking he can control it. It vibrates more but the bike is still going straight. But each vibration brings about a bigger vibration. And before the rider knows it, the front wheel is deflecting many degrees to each side even though the bike is still moving fast and in a straight line. And somewhere in those seconds, the rider is not in control; he is along for the ride and eventual crash. And if the rider survives he'll look back and wonder which vibration was the point of no return.
The same with Obama. The vibrations have been happening in his Administration but they've managed to control them and keep everything going straight ahead. But, those vibrations have gotten to the point where they are not controllable. Unemployment, inflation, gun-running, etc., all out of control. They could only keep their hands on them for so long but the momentum has exceeded Obama's strength . . . finally.
Jan '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
The 'unexpected' uptick in the unemployment rate was a huge factor. Though you can tell the press is still in his camp, the questions are getting tougher and more pointed.
I haven't heard about his personal likeability numbers lately - you want to bet that's because they're tanking? 'Rome is burning and Nero is golfing & Mrs. Nero is taking yet another vacation'. Everyone is P.O.'d and tired of this - the benefit of the doubt is no longer being granted.
Oct '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Possibilities:
Jewish voters, and non-Jewish supporters of Israel, could be reacting to the 1967 borders speech, the rush for the Israeli border, the flotilla/flytilla, and/or the reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.
Anti-war voters voters could be reacting to the disregard of the War Powers Act regarding the Libya situation.
Backlash against the President for taking personal credit for the Bin Laden raid.
High profile news stories about TSA gaffes: searching a 95 year old's diaper and a 6 year old's panties, while allowing a stun guns, knives, and a Nigerian man flying with an expired boarding pass in someone else's name.
Jun '11
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
Petulance. Maybe the public is noticing his immature behavior. Threatening to withhold the delivery of social security checks, droning on about corporate jets way too many times in a speech, and storming out of a meeting after showing up Eric Cantor are closer to tantrums than presidential leadership.
Maybe the general public is noticing our president is a reader not a leader.
Jun '10
Re: Why Are Obama's Re-Elect Numbers Suddenly Dropping?
David Williamson
This is obvious - Mr Murphy on Ricochet, predicting that Mr Obama will win, based on demography, and independents not voting for wacko conservatives.
Or, possibly, people are finally beginning to wake up to how damaging and incompetent he is (Mr Obama, not Mr Murphy). · Jul 15 at 7:42am
Edited on Jul 15 at 07:45 am
Actually, him too.