Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Reading Mollie's earlier post lamenting the very thought of a world where Mike Huckabee could be president, I found myself thinking about how far the former Governor of Arkansas has come in four years.
When he declared his presidential aspirations in the 2008 cycle, Huckabee was dismissed by elites for his background behind a Southern Baptist pulpit and was almost completely unknown by the wider electorate. But he made a name for himself through charisma, a sense of humor, and raw likability and ended up winning the Iowa Caucuses and a string of presidential contests through the Midwest and the South. That he did so with a minimal staff and a shoestring budget is impressive -- and that he's one of the potential 2012 candidates who draws the most interest, doubly so.
Of course, Huckabee is not the first instance of this phenomenon. Most recently, we saw a similar arc with Howard Dean in the 2004 Democratic field. Given the weak offerings that the 2012 Republican field has thus far yielded -- and the internal conflict between Tea Partiers and the GOP establishment -- this will probably be another cycle with at least one break-out dark horse candidate.
My guess is that this year's crown will go to Michele Bachmann, who fires up conservative crowds with a regularity that totally befuddles the Beltway. Second choice -- and one who will really be coming out of nowhere -- is Herman Cain, the former Kansas City Fed Chairman, Godfather's Pizza CEO, and radio personality who has natural gifts on the stump that most professional pols would kill for. He won't have much of a campaign infrastructure, but put him on stage in a few debates and his performance may lead him to an ascendancy much like Huckabee's.
I don't envision the dark horse as the nominee -- they usually aren't -- but it will doubtlessly be someone who significantly changes the shape of the race. So who's the GOP diamond that you've spotted in the rough?
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Comments:
Aug '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Maybe there's a window open somewhere?I think I can feel a draft.
Jul '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Ursula.
Mar '11
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Sarah Palin - haha.
Palin/West - all the "progressives" would move to Canada, only to find that they have Conservatives, also :-)
Edited on May 4, 2011 at 1:29amSep '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Michelle Bachman has the chops unlike Huckabee who was governor of Arkansas but otherwise comes off as far too hokie. She is an alumna of William and Mary, a tax lawyer and more serious in general than the other new faces. Still new to the national stage and they beat her up over lots of understandable gaffs but I don't think that hurts.
Aug '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Ted Nugent
Jun '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Cain's the man! He's a hometown hero, and I'll be working his campaign, so I'm a little biased.
Mar '11
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Bill Whittle!
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
did anyone hear Frank Luntz on the Dennis Prager show telling Dennis he should run? It was weird.
Aug '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Cain is a mesmerizing speaker. He really could get a lot of attention - if he could only first get a little attention.
Sep '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Would be a pleasure to hear him debate Trump and send the Republican party Al Sharpton back to the bleachers.
May '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
I sense that Barack Obama cannot be beaten by an all white, male ticket. Michelle Bachman is smart, principled, tough and beautiful. She would make an excellent candidate. Herman Cain has the oratorical skills to match the Orator-in-Chief, and he would bridge the racial divide. In my estimation, a Romney, Daniels, or Huckabee ticket will result in 100% of African American voters casting lots with Barack Obama. Am I wrong to be so cynical in terms of racial vote-casting?
Oct '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
I'm also a biased Herman Cain fan. His contribution to the race is his emphasis on leadership and it's importance in the oval office. He also understands the need to be inspired going into the election.
Jul '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Michelle Bachmann became a Republican after she misinterpreted a Gore Vidal book; absolutely no one in the middle is going to take her seriously, so she's more than welcome to run and keep things entertaining but if she should stumble into the nomination, we're stuck with the President. It'd be nice if the dark horse actually turned out to be a viable contender who could persuade people in the middle or even disaffected Obama supporters to vote for them. While I wish we lived in a world in which Palin could actually win, the person I'm keeping an eye on at the moment is Huntsman.
Mar '11
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
Jonathan Matthew Gilbert: Michelle Bachmann became a Republican after she misinterpreted a Gore Vidal book; absolutely no one in the middle is going to take her seriously...
Bachmann would be a better president than Obama, but then who wouldn't. I believe she has something else she should do, which is to replace Two Hankys Boehner.
Jonathan Matthew Gilbert: While I wish we lived in a world in which Palin could actually win...
Any Republican who wins the nomination will have to defeat the poodle media which will do their best to destroy him/her. In Palin's case they have already done everthing they could think of and she has fought back effectively.
Conservatives should not abandon a candidate who has been demonized because if they do they will be allowing the New York Times to pick their candidate for them.
May '11
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
"Conservatives should not abandon a candidate who has been demonized because if they do they will be allowing the New York Times to pick their candidate for them. "
Or Saturday Night Live. That alone makes me want to support Palin.
Jun '10
Re: Who Will be the Great Dark Horse Candidate of 2012?
The first Republican debate is tonight at 9:00 EST on Fox News. Watch it!